Mr. Buffett, who was 89 years old, just witnessed the fourth US stock market meltdown the day before yesterday, and may soon be welcoming the fifth.
According to Caixin.com data: On March 18, all three major US stock index futures triggered falling trading restrictions. The Nasdaq futures fell 4.5%, the Dow futures fell 4%, and the S & P 500 futures fell 3.7%.
At 21:30 Beijing time tonight, the majority of netizens are going to watch the opening of the US stock market again. Trump tweeted and begged God to bless him.
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So will BTC be affected by U.S. stocks tonight?
We can take a look at the decline of BTC every time the US stock market melts down from March 8 to now, compared with the average decline in March.
The average decline for the entire March (March 1-March 17) was -2.61%, and the decline during the meltdown of US stocks was above the average decline.
So if the US stocks do not unexpectedly blow tonight, BTC will most likely still fall, but it should not plunge 21%.
That brings us back to the topic we are discussing today. On March 12, BTC plunged 21%. Why?
The people who held the spot laughed that the "halving" turned out to be: halving assets.
But what is even worse is the contract. On March 12th, the entire network ’s short positions were 7.9 billion US dollars, about 56 billion yuan.
Everyone is guessing how much money the banker has spent to smash BTC directly below 4000. First of all, there is no banker in the currency circle, or everyone is a banker. It all depends on your strategy. If the price of the currency plummets, and you expect it to fall even more severely, immediately sell or open a short order, and wait for the currency price to fall as expected, and feel that there is a high probability that it will rebound. Can anyone of this strategy be regarded as a "bookmaker"?
So aside from the bookmaking theory, let's see how it was detonated that day.
First, US stocks melted down, peripheral panic intensified, and liquidity failed. Suppose you are in the U.S., earning millions a year. In order to diversify your risk, you invest 500,000 in the stock market and 500,000 in BTC. At this time, U.S. stocks have plummeted. Whether it is to cover positions or increase cash flow, you must consider investing in BTC. Take out some or even all of the 500,000?
So the plunge in US stocks caused liquidity failure that would immediately reduce other venture capital, BTC is just one of them.
Once the most critical moment is reached when cash is king, even gold may fall in stages.
Regardless of whether BTC is a safe-haven tool or a risk investment, if it encounters macroeconomic effects like the economic crisis, it will only be sold by investors for cash.
The selling fuse seems to have been found, but the minority holding both US stocks and BTC. Not all BTC players are affected by the external panic. How could it have fallen by 21%?
It's simple: serial bursts.
If it's just selling pressure, BTC has a market value of nearly 700 billion yuan anyway, and the storm has gone through so much, and it should be able to carry it.
Tens of thousands of BTC will not suddenly drop 21%, but tens of thousands of BTC plus 10 times 20 times the leverage, the power is amplified 10 times 10 times.
On the day, the bulls exploded from 7000 to 4,000, which is actually a normal drop method. There is no such thing as dignity.
Imagine that the empty and long orders are explosive barrels filled with nitroglycerin, and the US stock meltdown (or the generally accepted Plustoken stolen money) is a gun that hits the explosive barrel. After the explosion, the explosion of 7000 and 6000 Deep fried, 5000 deep fried, 4000 deep fried … Sure enough, "there is no winner after the gunshot."
Although the currency circle is not large, various contracts, mortgages, leverage, options … and various financial derivatives are extremely rich. In the bull market in 2017, the spot price soaring several tens to hundreds of times is enough to satisfy everyone's speculation and appetite. By 2018, the bubble will gradually disappear. In 2019, many small currencies will disappear, and even BTC will disappear. The magic of getting rich, but everyone's speculative mood is still there, naturally there is a market for demand.
Major exchanges have launched derivatives, and contract products have become more and more mature. Many newcomers even get started with contracts. Just imagine how high the leverage of the entire currency circle will be? Oh don't forget to halve the market, it will also encourage everyone to increase leverage and use the money they don't have to go long …
Recently, not only U.S. stocks have high uncertainties, but also have strong range fluctuations, as well as the entire currency circle. Under such a strong and uncertain situation, contracts, leverage, options, and the above three things are all explosive barrels that strengthen the plunge. .
One veteran who played contract has summed up a sentence: 100% of the people who played the contract have experienced a liquidation, and 99% must be out of the game by a liquidation.
Although there is no way to tell you when you can make the most profit when you enter the market, I can tell you with certainty that in such a special period, it is easy to halve all assets by opening a contract or using leverage.
Especially tonight is about to usher in the fifth U.S. stock market meltdown, the safest way is to wait and see.
The serial liquidation of the currency circle is actually a process of "de-leveraging". Excessive leverage is the same as China's real estate (besides, the currency circle does not have strong government supervision to ensure a soft landing). The bubble is large, and the larger the bubble, the larger the bubble. The more fragile, the smaller the tip can be punctured. When the leverage is almost gone, the explosion is over, and there will be no further bombing if there is selling pressure.
Is there any drama for Bitcoin halving this year?
At present, due to the large drop in the currency price, many miners have shut down directly. Bitcoin adjusts the difficulty only once every two weeks. If miners continue to shut down during the period, it may take two weeks to extend to three weeks, so the overall halving time may be forced to be delayed. Rear. There are indeed mining accidents at present, but miners are bound to carry them to the end for their own benefit, so don't worry too much.
In addition, the flood season in most parts of the country is from May to October. Just after halving, the electricity bill in the flood season has dropped by about 40%, which is also beneficial to miners. The halving market may have to wait until May to see the specific situation. .
What should I do now?
The global epidemic situation is unclear, and the US rescue plan is elusive. Whether it is traditional investment or the currency circle, it is currently recommended to be cautious, cash is king, and wait patiently for real opportunities. Don't learn the Fed, hit the bullets early and lie down and wait for the final result.
Finally, some suggestions for novices who come in:
As a window to contact a large number of newcomers, on the 12th, on the day of the plunge, many newcomers who did not even have a trading account were contacted. We are deeply facing these people who ask "how do I open an account with Bitcoin". The importance of education (not a joke), how to teach new people to understand what cryptocurrency is, what bitcoin is, how to look at the market, how dangerous the contract is … Right and wrong trumpet has been thinking and hope to teach everyone Get to know it correctly.
Operation is the easiest thing, but it is the most difficult task to teach all newcomers (and half-baked players) not to be an expert in operation and a dwarf in thinking. If you do n’t understand what is going on with Bitcoin, even if you are stocking it now, you will not sell it at the highest point, because you do n’t know what is its high point, so do n’t expect to make money by hoarding it.
Some suggestions for novices:
1. First look at the historical trajectory of Bitcoin (white paper is worth reading, but many people may not understand it at all);
2. Browse the top 100 currencies on the non-trumpet and the top 100 exchange data to view the history of the currency circle;
3. Test the water with funds less than 1,000 yuan to clarify the transaction process
4. Wait for the real opportunity.