What kind of blockchain project is worth investing in? Graph Network Data Tells You | Babbitt Industry Lesson
Babbitt Industry Lesson 2 "Finance is a Trap or a Treasure?" —— "Blockchain and Finance" Study Week, officially started on March 23. In the five-day course, five top blockchain experts used investment as the theme to showcase the cutting-edge investment experience and ideas from the blockchain.
On the evening of Wednesday, March 25th, Tao Rongqi , the founder of X-Order, brought you a sharing entitled " Crypto Asset Investment Practice: Graph Network Data ".
Tony Tao is the founder of X-Order and a founding partner of NGC Ventures. He has many years of experience in the banking, UnionPay, third-party payment and digital currency industries. X-Order is an innovative research organization focusing on cryptocurrency investment, open finance, and data science.Its headquarters is located in Shanghai.
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In the course live broadcast, Tao Rongqi showed the core research results of X-Order-the blockchain knowledge map , that is, by collecting information from news, social media and other channels, analyzing people and people, people and projects, projects and The relationship between the projects, and finally the data and graphics to describe the results of this analysis, and then to predict and invest in the future project dynamics.
Why did you choose "Blockchain Knowledge Graph" as your research direction?
Tao Rongqi stated in the live broadcast that he was exposed to complex economics in 2014, and the concepts in it were closely related to the network, and the network was also connected to the blockchain itself, so he engaged in this direction. "As for the purpose I want to achieve, I want to better understand the world and use the data to predict the future. In the process, there will be some interesting things and some things that will help investment."
Babbitt's Note: Complex economics was founded by American economist Brian Arthur. It regards the economy as a dynamic system that continuously "calculates" itself, constantly creates itself, and updates itself. It emphasizes contingency, uncertainty, meaning construction, and "any change is possible." It is a "verb" discipline based on prediction, reaction, innovation, and substitution.
The following is a selection of course content:
Blockchain Knowledge Graph
In our daily life, the Internet has become very popular, including the use of WeChat, Weibo, Douyin, etc. In the real physical world, we form a human network through human interaction, and finally become a large network of people.
For example, the social media network "Twitter". Imagine if Trump sent a Twitter, then there will be many people to browse, like and repost. Each person who retweets is a node in this network. Person is a super node, because the effect of his second propagation is very strong. So in the entire network, there are various nodes, large and small.
Mapping to the blockchain industry, as long as you pay attention to the social media dynamics of the big names (big Vs) in the industry, you can get an overview of the trends of the entire industry.
Here I want to mention the "minority report", as the name implies, is a report on important tasks of the minority. Its goal is to discover the information that others have not discovered through the awareness of the minority (such as their Twitter). Investment.
The logic behind it is that important people as the central node, his communication can achieve better results. If he publishes or reposts a certain news, then more people will see the news through this node.
The "Minority Report" intercepts news for a week, scoring and ranking according to the importance of the news. In a way, it can predict what will happen in the future, and even judge which projects are worth investing in.
The following is the Proof of Value blockchain venture capital fund ranking. This ranking intercepts hundreds of blockchain funds around the world. They are scored and ranked according to their investment in the bull market, leading investment and continuous performance. It is the bear market point, the bull market point, the lead investment point and the continuous point, and finally the total score.
If the fund is keen to invest in a bear market, then the bear market score is high. If the fund likes to lead, then the lead score is high. As can be seen from the table, the top ten funds with total scores are Andreessen Horowitz, Polychain, Digital Currency Group, Pantera Capital, IDG Captial, Hashkey Capital, Union Square Ventures, Fenbushi Capital, Tiger Global Management, NGC Ventures.
In the Silicon Valley venture capital circle, there is a "PayPal gangster", which means that since PayPal was acquired by eBay in 2002, early PayPal employees have chosen to start their own businesses, maintain close relationships with each other, invest and support each other, like gangsters Controls the US technology industry.
In the blockchain industry, there is a "Coinbase gangster". Coinbase is the largest digital currency exchange in the United States. It has a huge influence in the blockchain industry. However, the new projects created by employees who have gone out of Coinbase are equally impressive.
X-Order uses the knowledge graph algorithm and machine learning model to discover high-quality projects created by former employees of Coinbase through the network of Coinbase's network of contacts, so that the success rate of investment is even higher.
We assume that the closer the project is to the Coinbase network, the more likely it is to enter the inspection list. To this end, we design a prediction model, which includes 11 characteristic variables of the relationship network, and use decision trees combined with manual intervention to select 3 main characteristic variables: the second-degree relationship includes the number of character executive connections; the second-degree relationship also includes The number of project connection paths is used; the number of third-degree connection paths is a model of secondary influence variables.
These projects created by former Coinbase employees include Coda, dYdX, Oasis Labs, Filecoin, 0x, Zcash, Blockstack, NEAR Protocol, and more. We hope to use this knowledge map to predict which digital assets may be listed on the Coinbase platform in the future.
Q & A session
Q: What experience can I share in investing in the primary market?
Tao: The investment in the primary market is more about people. Many times you invest in a project because you are in the network, so you can access this project, so you can invest. After all, it is still related to the network.
Q: What is your opinion on the recent market trend of Bitcoin? Is Bitcoin related to hedging?
Tao: In the extreme market, whether it is Bitcoin, gold, or stocks, these are the targets for investing with money. These are not important. The most important thing is whether they can survive. In other words, can we survive this two-year survival crisis globally. From a hedging point of view, when humans are in real crisis, will you use Bitcoin? Only when the government collapses can Bitcoin rise from the rubble, and even if it does, it won't be so fast.
Q: During the epidemic, neither DC / EP nor Libra moved. China and the United States, whose "digital currency" will land first?
Tao: I think this matter is not very important. At the moment, instead of considering which digital currency will land faster, it is better to consider the collapse of the US dollar's credit, what kind of chain reaction will occur, and whether the RMB will move toward replacing the US dollar and the Euro. How to replace it, and what role can DC / EP play in it. Therefore, the more important thing is the internationalization of the RMB and its settlement.
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