Financial market black swan incidents occur frequently, how is the layout of cryptocurrencies? See what senior analysts suggest

In recent times, U.S. stocks have suffered multiple meltdowns, plunging international oil prices, turbulent cryptocurrency prices, and bitcoin miners have been shut down … Market black swan is frequent, and under the shadow of the economic crisis, what is the current macro situation of global financial markets? How is the cryptocurrency market affected? How to arrange investors, change in crisis … OKEx Intelligence Bureau invited OKEx senior analyst Leo Zhang to explain this in detail.

Guest: Zhang Lijie, senior analyst at OKEx

Topic: Frequent black swan incidents in financial markets, how is the layout of cryptocurrencies?

Time: 20:00, March 26

Venue: Thousands of chat live room of OKEx Intelligence Bureau

Guest profile: Leo Zhang, a senior analyst at OKEx, has many years of experience in traditional financial and currency investment and trading, and is good at trending wave operations, fine basic theories such as channel, wave, Gann, and entanglement theory, pursuing long-term stable and profitable operations style.

The following are the highlights of sharing the essence:

1. At present, in addition to the collapse of the negotiations on a reduction agreement and the "price war" initiated by Saudi Arabia, the international crude oil plunge has also been affected by the global spread of the new crown pneumonia epidemic.

2. This round of U.S. stock market plunge is more like a correction after the U.S. stock market's excessive rise, and then the impact of the epidemic is superimposed, and the rate and intensity of adjustment are significantly strengthened. It is estimated that the crisis will bring about half the economic loss of US GDP to global companies.

3. The direct reason for the strength of the US dollar index is due to the tightness of the US dollar ’s liquidity. At the same time, the superposition of U.S. stocks fell, and the liquidation of high-leverage institutions will bring a chain reaction, making the already tighter US dollar ’s liquidity more tense, forming Dollar shortage. "

4. Gold's hedging function is special. It is essentially an asset that does not generate cash flow. The market generally buys gold when it is pessimistic, and sells gold when it is desperate. This is the dual nature of gold's safe-haven nature. In the medium and long term, the value of gold as a traditional safe-haven asset will continue to increase as global interest rate cuts and even negative interest rates intensify.

5. After the crisis, Bitcoin ’s market performance is more similar to those of “risk assets” that rely more on risk appetite or market sentiment, so it is obviously not accurate to define Bitcoin as “digital gold”.

6. Regarding bitcoin investment, it is recommended to adopt a staged fixed investment approach in the current environment. The second is to hold bitcoin at a relatively low level for long-term savings at one time and exchange time for greater value returns.

7. From the perspective of trading volume, it has continued to shrink in recent days, indicating that the upside momentum has gradually weakened, and the risk of falling has increased after the currency price has rebounded. With the gradual level of the BOLL middle rail, the direction can be determined, which can determine the overall market. Is it a rebound or a reversal.

8. Summary of trading experience for market investors: diversified investment in currency stocks, long-term investment in fixed coin thinking, contract leverage reduction, and global thinking resonance operation.

The following is to share the full text:

Zhang Lijie : I'm glad to be invited by the OKEx Intelligence Bureau to do live broadcast sharing tonight. Today we mainly focus on the global financial market and digital currency market. Everyone knows that the recent financial market turbulence, including U.S. stocks, crude oil, gold, and digital currencies, has all shown a sharp rise and fall. The timing is also a coincidence. Tonight I will share this topic in depth.

Personally, I have been in the digital currency market for 17 years. Before that, I had been doing traditional finance, including stocks, futures and foreign exchange. Therefore, in the previous investment experience, I can share with you some of the detours I have taken before, or something I can learn from.

OKEx Intelligence: Okay, thank you teacher! Then we enter today's Q & A sharing. We have prepared a few recent hot questions today, asking teachers to answer their questions.

The first is that since the beginning of this year, the most important thing everyone cares about is the epidemic situation. First, please ask Teacher Li Jie to briefly introduce the current domestic and international epidemic situation? What important impact do you think it will have on the global economy?

Zhang Lijie: First of all, explain the current domestic and international epidemic situation with two official data charts. Now that the domestic epidemic situation has stabilized after being controlled, including Wuhan and other places in Hubei, there is also a positive trend of gradual deregulation; however, the recent epidemic situation is still intensifying and spreading globally, and the international financial market has become more turbulent. At present, the new crown epidemic crisis is entering a more critical and complex stage. Data such as the United States, Spain, and Italy continue to rise, and if US policy is not effectively changed, it may spread later. Fortunately, the spreading trend has been basically controlled in China, but the situation of overseas and domestic polarization, including China's A shares and Hong Kong stocks, will also be affected to some extent by US stocks.

Statistics on new crown pneumonia in China

Statistics of new crown pneumonia epidemics abroad

As many analysts have said, the epidemic was very sudden, spreading worldwide far beyond SARS that year, affecting all the most important economies-China, the United States, Japan, many emerging market economies in Europe and the Northern Hemisphere. Has caused a worldwide panic. Because of this panic, traditional safe-haven financial products including gold and bitcoin have been sold on a large scale, which is also the starting point of today's sharing class. The market is so turbulent, and the market value of the financial market has evaporated. Now what should we do with the current financial market? Should it be held? Still have cash left? Still staying still … Today is to resolve a doubt in the minds of most investors.

I also hope that the epidemic situation can be controlled in the shortest possible time, especially in Europe and the United States, because the economic impact will be greatly affected now. Even with such a large worldwide impact, US President Trump is still expressing his views on the 24th, and can be controlled as soon as possible, hoping to reopen the society before Easter (April 12). In the early morning of the 25th, the US White House and Senate leaders reached a breakthrough agreement involving a $ 2 trillion New Crown virus rescue plan.

However, many local U.S. state leaders, and even some Republican congressmen, have expressed concerns or vigilance about loosening social controls too quickly. The epidemic situation abroad is still not optimistic. The United States and Europe still need to strengthen effective control over the spread of the virus in the later stage. It is believed that the world ’s heaviest virus will be able to defeat the virus. Economic losses have already been caused. Under the prerequisite of controlling the epidemic, the economy is slowly restored.

In the face of the impact of the new crown epidemic, most of the service industries are catering, retail, entertainment, tourism, aviation and hotels. Some time ago we saw that most catering shops were forced to close, flights were cancelled, hotel vacancy rates soared, and social retail sales plummeted.

But at the same time, the epidemic has objectively stimulated the online consumption and services, e-commerce, mobile payment, online food ordering, contactless delivery service, digital media entertainment, distance education and so on.

OKEx Intelligence: Recently, international oil prices have fallen for four consecutive weeks. In your opinion, what is the source of the plunge in international crude oil prices? What impact does it have on domestic related industries?

Zhang Lijie: OK, let ’s talk about international oil prices.

This is NYMEX crude oil:

On March 9th, the price plunged 30% at the beginning of the market, and continued to drop in the next two weeks. The lowest price approached the $ 20 round mark. At present, the game among the three parties in Saudi Arabia, Russia, and the United States will continue to exist. It is difficult for oil prices to stop in the short term. Signal of stabilization.

Next up is Brent crude oil futures:

On March 9, the price opened below US $ 40, and continued to drop in the next two weeks. The lowest price reached US $ 26.35. Although US stocks have begun to bottom out, oil prices have not yet seen a clear stop-loss signal as of today.

At present, in addition to the collapse of the international crude oil collapse and the "price war" factors initiated by Saudi Arabia, the pressure of falling oil prices is now increasingly coming from the impact of the global spread of the new crown pneumonia epidemic. Among them, the epidemic control measures will make aviation fuel The sharp decline in daily demand will also cause oil prices to continue to weaken.

Judging from the situation of Saudi Arabia, the United States, and Russia in this crude oil price war, whether in terms of fiscal balance and foreign exchange reserves, Russia is more able to withstand the negative impact of lower oil prices than Saudi Arabia. The US shale oil has become the biggest victim of low oil prices because of production costs and the well life cycle.

To some extent, the tolerance of the US shale oil to oil prices determines the duration and end result of this price war. When the low oil price causes the stagnation of US shale oil capital spending, US crude oil production will decline sharply in the subsequent period of time, thereby realizing the blow to shale oil in Saudi Arabia and Russia.

The OPEC + organization has always stood on the long side of oil prices. After the market structure improves, the two parties will have the incentive to re-establish an alliance to jointly maintain international oil prices.

When it comes to the capital market, the core of any commodity price change is demand and supply. On the demand side, overseas epidemics continue to spread and suppress demand for crude oil. On the supply side, the OPEC + original production reduction agreement is about to expire at the end of the month, but the major crude oil producing countries have not reached an agreement on production reduction recently. Exports have risen to a record level of 10 million barrels per day. The supply and demand situation has intensified panic and risk aversion, and it is expected that the competition pattern of crude oil will be difficult to change in the short term, and crude oil prices may remain low.

OKEx Intelligence Bureau: In the past month, US stocks have continued to plummet, and there have been several rare fuses in history. How do you think this round of US stocks plummet will affect the global economy?

Zhang Lijie: For more than a month, the Dow Jones index of the U.S. stock market has continued to plummet, falling by more than 10% in February, and falling by more than 20% in March. Since the February high of 29568, the decline has cumulatively retreated by one third. In a technical bear market, the cumulative decline of the S & P 500 has fallen by nearly 30%, which means that the United States is doomed to a recession.

Dow Jones Index (Oriental Fortune)

S & P 500 Index (Oriental Fortune)

Since the beginning of the year, the stock markets of Europe, the United States and many emerging market economies have fallen by an average of about 30%, and the US stock index has broken out 4 times in 10 days. In such a tragic scene, even Warren Buffett exclaimed "see you for a long time."

But from a long-term perspective, this is more like a correction after a decade or so of excessive rise in US stocks. It is just that the impact of the new coronary pneumonia epidemic has been superimposed, and the rate and intensity of adjustment have been significantly strengthened.

U.S. stocks have four blowouts since March

The international financial market has been turbulent, and the Chinese stock market has also fallen. However, compared with the major developed countries, the A-share downward adjustment has not been so deep and so fierce, and it is one of the world's most “falling” stock markets.

"What has never happened in our lifetime … we are facing a crisis." Dario, founder of Bridgewater Fund, the world ’s largest hedge fund, said in a recent interview with CNBC, "We now estimate that in the United States, Losses at the company level are about $ 4 trillion, and the world is about $ 12 trillion. " By the end of 2019, the US gross domestic product (GDP) was more than $ 21 trillion. This means that the forecast shows that the crisis will bring about half of the US GDP ’s economic losses to global companies.

However, it is too early to conclude that the world has entered a financial crisis.

The international financial crisis usually has three basic characteristics: first, whether there is a continuous panic decline in the international financial market; second, whether a large number of financial institutions, especially systemically important financial institutions, have closed down; and third, global entities Whether the economic operation has been severely damaged. Only the first feature is currently satisfied.

In other words, judging from the current situation, it is not yet possible to judge that the global financial crisis has occurred. However, the epidemic has continued to spread in recent years, especially in Europe and the United States. How many months can we reach a peak? At present, this kind of financial risk in the international market is constantly increasing, including gold and bitcoin have continued to fall some time ago. Investors are constantly throwing out such illiquid assets in exchange for USD and RMB. The cash is Wang has become a mainstream in this market.

OKEx Intelligence: Why is the US dollar index constantly rising under the continuous slump in the US stock market? Can you explain the logical relationship behind it?

Zhang Lijie: In this round of global financial market turbulence, almost all risky assets have been sold crazy, but the US dollar index has reached a new high of 103 in recent years. That is to say, the US dollar is also a world currency unanimously approved by the global market, and is an irreplaceable safe-haven asset.

The direct reason for the strength of the US dollar index is the tight liquidity of the US dollar, and the poor performance of the euro in the long-term perspective is also the background of the US dollar's strength. At present, the euro continues to show weakness. At the same time, the epidemic of new crown pneumonia in the euro area is the most serious in overseas epidemics. The number of confirmed new crown pneumonia cases in Italy, Spain, Germany, and France has rapidly increased.

At the same time, the superposition of US stocks fell, and the liquidation of high-leverage institutions would bring a chain reaction, making the tighter liquidity of the US dollar more tense, forming a "US dollar shortage."

In response to the problem of US dollar liquidity, the Fed has recently continued to enlarge its tactics, release liquidity and increase QE, quantitatively print banknotes, and even reached a bottomless level. In the short term, it is expected to stabilize the stock market, and the liquidity of the US dollar can be eased to a certain extent.

OKEx Intelligence Bureau: The plunge in U.S. stocks has put tremendous pressure on the economy. What measures has the Fed adopted to "rescue the market"? Did these measures work as expected? Will it affect the cryptocurrency market?

Zhang Lijie: The US stock market has fallen by more than 30% in the past month, and four fuses have occurred within 10 days. It has undoubtedly entered a technical bear market. For the Fed, this is a sign that the US economy is entering a recession.

Recently, we can see words such as plunge, melting, tight liquidity, etc. In order to deal with the impact of the epidemic on the real economy and the financial system, the Fed has taken great pains. Since the sudden cut in interest rates by 50 basis points on March 3, the Fed has only done one thing a day since March, giving away money, a lot of money, and unconventional money.

Fed's crazy rescue timeline (Source: China Business News)

The two ace cards of the Federal Reserve, one is to reduce interest rates to 0, and the other is to restart QE (quantitative easing). The market did not buy the same day, the market still plunged 7% at the opening of the market, triggering the third fuse since this month. It is already down 11%. For the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates to zero and restart QE (quantitative easing) these two "trump cards", the market does not seem to buy it, the S & P 500 index fell 7% shortly after the opening of the day, triggering the third meltdown this month, the US stocks suspended trading for 15 minutes . After the resumption of trading, the decline widened. At the close, the three major stock indexes of the New York stock market plummeted more than 11%.

OKEx Intelligence Bureau Note: The circuit breaker is also called the automatic stop mechanism, which refers to the suspension of trading measures adopted by the exchange to control risks when the volatility of the stock index reaches the specified fuse point. Specifically, it is a mechanism to set a fuse price before a contract reaches the daily limit, so that the contract bid and offer can only be traded within this price range for a period of time.

In layman ’s terms, a meltdown means that the financial market has already fallen too much. The compulsory policy stipulates that it must stop abruptly at that point in time and must stop and take a rest. After that, see if the market sentiment can return to a rational state. If you continue to fall, you will continue to often. Then it will trigger a second fuse. It is equivalent to a bumper and fuse in the financial market.

On March 18th, the currency instruments increased in weight, and the Federal Reserve announced the launch of the money market mutual fund liquidity instrument (MMLF), which lasted until September this year. Like CPFF and PDCF, this MMLF is also the first time the Fed has used the financial crisis since 2008.

After restarting the three major tools during the financial crisis, on March 18, U.S. stocks blew up again, the fourth time in two weeks. The plunge of the day also made Trump's proud performance—the stock market performance returned to “before liberation” overnight. "The Dow fell 10,000 points at a high level and closed below 20,000 points, almost erasing the stock market gains since Trump took office.

Then, in order to cope with the negative chain effects caused by these four fuses, the Fed announced on the 23rd that it will continue to purchase U.S. Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities to maintain market stability. At this time, it has no upper limit, and no quota limit is equivalent to an open-ended quantitative Loose policy, the Fed has bet all bets this time, this intensity has exceeded the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis.

So we have also seen that the US stocks have rebounded from the 24th, including the G7 Finance Minister also issued a joint statement that will protect employment, the resilience of the financial system and enterprises at all costs, and restore confidence and economic growth at all costs. Stimulated by such major positives, US stocks started to rise by 1,400 points on the 24th, and finally closed at the $ 20,000 mark. Yesterday, the Dow Jones Index reached a price of more than 21,000, and it started to move upwards.

The US Federal Reserve has introduced various stimulus policies to maintain the stability of this market. It can also be seen that Bitcoin started ahead of U.S. stocks on March 19, and a rebound occurred, rising from US $ 5200 to over US $ 6,000. Although it will continue to pick up in US stocks, the global panic is slowly being released. Now the market will still hold risk assets, such as Bitcoin and gold. Gold also experienced a sharp rapid rise later, and then returned to 1700. point. From this week's rapid completion of the oversold rebound in gold, this strong trend can also be seen in the market's recognition of some safe-haven assets. Then in May of this year, the most important thing for Bitcoin is the halving event, which will further promote the further rise of the price of the currency.

OKEx Intelligence Bureau: In this round of global stock market crash, gold as a safe-haven asset has not been carried. Do you think the logic of "buying gold in troubled times" is still valid?

Zhang Lijie: Since the U.S. stock market triggered a meltdown on March 9, gold, a traditional safe-haven asset, has shown no risk at all. In just two weeks, it fell from 1700 to about 1450, with an overall decline of 14.7%. Although not as large as US stocks, as an international safe haven, its decline has far exceeded expectations.

However, since the rapid rebound started on Friday (March 20), it has now recovered the US $ 1600 round mark and is now quoted at 1617. The COMEX gold rebounded even more, the highest point has reached 1700 US dollars, the current offer is 1645.

In fact, when the market panic soared sharply, it was not the first time that gold lost its hedging characteristics. For example, in 2008, gold was sold off under the subprime mortgage crisis and fell with US stocks.

Gold's hedging function is special. It is essentially an asset that does not generate cash flow, that is, if you want to make a profit, you can only buy it at a higher price. The market generally buys gold when it is pessimistic, sells gold when it is desperate, and earns intermediate profit margins. This is the dual nature of gold's safe-haven nature.

On March 20, the World Gold Council (WGC) pointed out in its latest report that the recent fluctuations in the price of gold were caused by the large-scale liquidation of all assets and may be caused by leveraged positions and rule-based transactions. amplification. The report also pointed out that gold may also be used to cash in to compensate for losses in other asset classes. In other words, when some leveraged transactions and contract transactions are close to the burst price, the investor needs to add liquidity to make up for the balance of the position, then he will sell some illiquid assets, including gold, which can be sold after the sale. In exchange for a certain amount of cash flow, the cash flow can be replenished into their own positions, so that their positions will not appear in a large area, and this will also affect the supply and demand balance of gold to a certain extent.

Of course, in the medium and long term, I think that as the global interest rate cuts and even negative interest rates intensify, the value of gold as a traditional safe-haven asset will continue to increase.

OKEx Intelligence Bureau: Then let's talk about bitcoin that we all care about. Bitcoin, which has been known as "digital gold", has also fallen a lot this time. Do you think it still has a hedging nature? How should we position Bitcoin in the capital market in the future?

Zhang Lijie: Over the past month or so, global public health security issues have led to the outbreak of a "crisis" that has not received real attention, although it has been previously warned. It includes almost all traditions including stocks, bonds, foreign exchange, precious metals, and commodities. Assets collapsed across the board, and Bitcoin, which was once regarded as a new type of safe-haven asset, failed to buck the trend and followed the highly synchronized market performance of risk assets such as US stocks.

Everyone is comparing bitcoin to gold. Compared to the traditional safe-haven assets such as gold, the market performance of bitcoin after the crisis is better than those of "risk assets" that rely more on risk appetite or market sentiment. For similarity, the definition of Bitcoin as "digital gold" is obviously not accurate enough .

As a commodity like expensive finance and crude oil, the price fluctuation of Bitcoin is subject to the consensus of market participants. The price change is affected by the supply and demand of buyers and sellers. At present, Bitcoin still has the characteristics of high volatility. It also determines that it is still difficult to take on the risk aversion property. When the risk comes, the market panic will intensify, and non-long-term value investors will immediately choose to sell and exchange for legal currency in exchange for liquidity.

Only 11 years since the invention of Bitcoin, the number of people and market consensus are far from being comparable to traditional stock markets, foreign exchange markets, commodities precious metals, crude oil, and gold. With the acceleration of the digital currency process of central banks around the world, and the bitcoin associated with the blockchain has been accepted by more non-currency circles, I believe that the demand for bitcoin will increase significantly, coupled with the limited prerequisites for its supply, determine Its external price and intrinsic value are far from what they are today.

OKEx Intelligence Bureau: The current global financial market turbulence is intensifying, and it is difficult for crypto markets to stand alone. Can you analyze what will happen to the crypto market (quotation)?

Zhang Lijie: With the turmoil in the global financial market caused by the spread of the new crown epidemic, U.S. stocks, crude oil and gold have plummeted, the US dollar index has surpassed 100, and the Federal Reserve has frequently released water to save the market. Bitcoin has also started to fall sharply on March 12 and fell on the day It exceeded 20%, plunged nearly 15% again on the 13th, the lowest price of the currency hit 3791 points, almost cut, and the prices of other cryptocurrencies also severely shrank.

There are many reasons for this market decline. The liquidity crisis in the global macro market is one of the important factors, but the unreasonable use of high leverage by some participants in the cryptocurrency market has also greatly aggravated the market's decline.

The positive correlation between Bitcoin and the S & P 500 Index has been apparently passivated a few days ago, while traditional safe-haven asset gold has also temporarily rid itself of the rare joint performance of simultaneous declines with US stocks. Although bitcoin and other financial assets still have a weak correlation to a certain extent, it is difficult to survive alone due to the impact of global capital markets.

OKEx official data shows that the number of long and short positions that have been stable at more than 1.0 than the data has been steadily running below 1 in the past week, which means that the number of short positions is currently more than the number of long positions, and Even after a certain rebound of Bitcoin in the past two trading days, the rebound of this ratio is quite limited. Therefore , it can be considered that investors on OKEx platform still hold a pessimistic attitude towards the market outlook of Bitcoin .

OKEx daily short position ratio in the past month

From the perspective of trading volume, it has continued to shrink in recent days, indicating that the upward momentum has gradually weakened, and the risk of falling has increased after the currency price has rebounded. With the gradual level of the BOLL middle rail, the direction can be determined, which can determine whether the overall market is a rebound. It is still a reversal. If the market weakness is to be completely reversed, the market desperately needs a heavy Yangyang line to regain the negative drop of the current round.

OKEx Intelligence Bureau: In the cryptocurrency market, how do you think investors should allocate assets? Does platform currency have long-term investment value? Which platform currency should I hold?

Zhang Lijie: For the current cryptocurrency market, I think investors should give up altcoins, focus on the configuration of mainstream currencies led by bitcoin, and simultaneously increase the platform currency of mainstream digital currency exchanges, such as OK and OKB.

Regarding Bitcoin, my suggestion is to adopt a staged fixed investment approach in the environment at the time, set a range of ranges for myself and the amount of fixed investment per cycle; the second is to hold Bitcoin at a relatively low level for long-term savings at one time, Exchange time for a greater return on value without having to worry about the daily rise and fall of the currency price, which is the so-called Buddhist investor.

For contract traders, in the current weak market, it is necessary to reduce their leverage to open positions, control the position ratio, be disciplined, and set the stop loss level for each position. This is particularly important. Do n’t open positions. Otherwise, all paid in vain. Do not deliberately pursue a high win rate, sometimes a low win rate but a high profit-loss ratio can also get good returns. I hope that friends who are contractuals will understand. What we want to pursue is a high profit-loss ratio. After setting the stop loss for the next order, the higher the ratio of the maximum profit space to the maximum loss space, the higher the price-performance ratio of this order.

Finally, let's talk about the platform currency. First, the platform currency is the platform token issued by the digital currency exchange itself. The fluctuation of the price of the currency is linked to the company's performance and other factors. The platform currency can be understood as the stocks issued by securities companies in the traditional financial stock market. For example, a certain securities company earns commission fees and other income. The more active the market, the higher the profit, and the same is true for the currency circle.

Take OKEx ’s platform currency OKB as an example. At present, it is officially announced that all 700 million OKBs that are not in circulation have been destroyed, which means that the supply has been reduced, which has greatly increased the value of the currency price itself. The latest research report also shows that OKB In the state of severely low valuation, in the long run, when the global epidemic is resolved, US stocks and global capital markets will no longer panic and return to a reasonable range. Cryptocurrencies will also be on track, and OKB will definitely return to a reasonable price range.

OKB recent daily chart

OKEx Intelligence Bureau: Thank you teachers for sharing your experience in good faith. I believe that fans and friends will have some insights. The next question is also a question that we are very concerned about: In the face of the soaring currency market, ordinary investors often Feeling panic and confused, as a professional senior investment analyst, do you have any trading experience or thoughts to share with you?

Zhang Lijie: Through long-term contract trading, I have summarized a few points that I think are more important in trading:

1) Diversified investment in currency stocks

At present, the market is a global market. The stock market is still the mainstream of the market and the core area of ​​traditional finance. The funds are mainly concentrated in the global capital markets, especially the stock market. I suggest that friends can invest a portion of their investable funds in the current The Asia-Pacific stock market, including U.S. stocks, especially A-shares, has retreated two times in depth from 3100 points to 2700 points. From a long-term investment perspective, it is definitely a very good position to buy positions. There is still very much room for further decline. limited.

Similarly, after this deep adjustment of bitcoin, some mining machines have fallen below the cost line. With a portion of investable funds, digital assets can be deployed for a long time. We must believe in the value of blockchain technology and the value of digital assets led by bitcoin. Master the correlation between the price changes of Bitcoin and other traditional financial assets.

2) Long-term investment in TunCoin

Non-contract users and users with low risk tolerance can use a small amount of funds to invest in digital assets, commonly known as tokens. With a long-term thinking, you don't need to care about the fluctuation of the currency price every day. Long-term account profitability. At the same time, if there is sufficient time, you can also perform intra-day fluctuation operations, reduce the cost of holding positions, and use limited funds to enlarge your account income.

3) Contracts reduce leverage and appropriately enlarge Take Profit and Stop Loss

For contract users, it is necessary to appropriately lower leverage. After all, it is a weak market and has not fully stabilized the rebound. The downside is also relatively limited. Therefore, no matter how long you open, you must reduce the leverage. Contract selection must be carefully chosen. Do not open 100 times. Normally, 10 times and 20 times are high leverage operations. You can open 5-10 times, and then choose how many positions to open. This determines how much strong parity is. Of course, it also determines the speed of the loss and gain. I suggest that the position ratio of 30-40% is OK.

4) Resonant operation of global thinking (US index, crude oil, gold, A shares, digital currency)

In this round of decline, the U.S. stocks, crude oil, gold, and European stock markets interacted. At the same time, it affected the Asia-Pacific stock market. Hong Kong stocks also faced a sharp retreat. A-shares were relatively strong. Today's global market integration, when the new crown epidemic in foreign countries can effectively control the spread of large areas will not only determine the direction of the entire financial market, but also affect the fluctuation of the digital currency market to a certain extent.

OKEx Intelligence Bureau: OK, finally there are two more questions from the fan base. Please ask the teacher to answer:

Q1: Will Bitcoin still fall to around 3000? How much price is expected to be the bottom?

Zhang Lijie: Since the rapid decline of the Bitcoin spot since March 8th, it has been adjusted from around 9100 to below 4000 points. The overall decline has been more than half, and the market value has also shrunk sharply. After two consecutive days of decline, the price of the currency was consolidated around 5200 for 5 trading days. The bottom of the pin has been repeatedly lowered and recovered to show a large number of purchases supporting the chassis. Strong pressure.

As the saying goes, the bear market doesn't tell the bottom, we don't predict the bottom, but when the signal comes out, it is enough to strictly implement your own established trading strategy. According to a concept in trading , trading your plan, planning your trading. In the short term, the support below is relatively strong, and the pressure above is relatively large. The overall daily level has not yet escaped from the weak market, but the possibility of continuing to find a bottom of 3000 is very small, unless there is another big black market similar to the U.S. stock plunge. "The swan" disrupted the market.

Friends who play the spot do not have to think that they can copy the lowest price, because the so-called bottom usually refers to an area, the market will give you enough opportunities to participate, you can choose to build positions in batches . Instead of choosing to sell due to price fluctuations, you can also buy a certain number of high-quality digital assets over a period of time in the form of a fixed investment. Of course, Bitcoin is the first choice.

I believe that many friends are playing contracts. As for playing contracts, you must adjust the leverage ratio and position ratio according to the market environment. It is recommended to open the order with 5-10 times leverage. Of course, whether you are long or short, you must make your own orders at the same time. Add insurance and set appropriate stop loss levels.

Q2: Why did Bitcoin soar during the previous Iran event, but did not perform well when the situation was not good recently?

Zhang Lijie: The Iranian incident occurred on January 3 this year. The senior general of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guards, the commander of the "Holy City Brigade", Suleimani, was assassinated. The news has caused a worldwide sensation, and the behavior of the United States completely offended Iran and the Middle East Pro-Iranian armed group. Subsequently, the U.S. military base in Iraq and the ambassador were bombed successively. For a while, almost everyone thought that a large-scale war would break out between the United States and Iran. Fortunately, both sides restrained it and did not cause more serious consequences.

This incident is only a military and economic conflict between the United States and Iran. It has limited global impact and has not caused panic in the financial market. Gold and Bitcoin, which are traditional safe havens, have ushered in a rapid rise. Bitcoin rose from $ 7,160 on January 3 to a high of $ 10,500 in early February.

The main cause of the market slump after the new year is the large-scale outbreak of the global new crown epidemic, and the continuous collapse of U.S. stocks and a series of financial turbulence in European and Asia-Pacific stock markets. The asset panic after the panic caused by the market, including almost all within gold and Bitcoin All non-liquid assets are rapidly declining, and the impact and root causes of the Iran incident are completely different, so the currency price has shown a different trend.

OKEx Intelligence Bureau: Okay, thank you teacher for answering fan questions. Finally, our OKEx Intelligence Bureau is a popular information column of the Blockchain Division. It is determined to be an evangelist in the blockchain industry. What does Teacher Li Jie expect from our OKEx Intelligence Bureau?

Zhang Lijie : First of all, I'm very glad to be invited by our OKEx Intelligence Bureau as a guest to share with you a topic about the recent global financial market and cryptocurrency market. The host is very enthusiastic and feels great. I hope the column of the OKEx Intelligence Bureau will be more The better you do, the more and more well-known in the circle, the industry's first-class science information column, invite more and more big coffee to share with you.