QKL123 market analysis | The Federal Reserve will move again, can it survive the constant stimulation? (0401)

Abstract: The market is changing soon, pay attention to risk prevention. The Fed made another move to stabilize the operation of the national debt market. A new round of stimulus is being prepared. The epidemic situation is relatively better. The sad thing is the corporate debt bubble.

At 10:30 today, the 8BTCCI broad market index was reported at 8898.89 points, with a 24-hour rise or fall of -1.89%, reflecting a decline in the broader market. Bitcoin strength index was reported at 97.57 points, with a 24-hour rise or fall of -1.89%, and the relative performance of Bitcoin in the entire market has weakened ; ChaiNext USDT OTC premium index was reported at 101.98, with a 24-hour rise or fall of + 0.07%, USDT The over-the-counter premium level has risen slightly .

Analyst perspective:

During the stock market disaster, when the debt crisis and epidemic spread, "cardiorespiratory resuscitation" and "stimulants" could not stop. Last night, the Fed again announced the establishment of a temporary repurchase agreement tool (FIMA repurchase tool) for foreign and international monetary authorities to help support the smooth operation of financial markets, including the U.S. Treasury market, and thus maintain credit supply to the United States . At the same time, the fourth round of economic stimulus in the United States is also under preparation, and the scale may reach US $ 600 billion.

In the coming week, the number of newly diagnosed patients in the United States is expected to show an inflection point, but the impact of the epidemic on the economy is lagging behind, and there are many variables in the development of the global epidemic. For the first time in the past two weeks, the United States may apply for unemployment benefits for a record. According to the Fed's forecast, the US unemployment rate will climb to 32.1%, at which time about 47 million people will be unemployed, exceeding the Great Depression of the 1930s (24.9%).

The external impact of the epidemic on the economy can be cured by "injection and medicine" in the short term, but the crisis under the debt bubble is difficult to cure. For more than a decade, the cheap bond market funds of American companies have been creating debt bubbles. However, the next three years will usher in a concentrated expiration and face huge risk of puncture. A mere stimulus will only fuel the bubble, and it will not change the fundamentals of the business or bring the US economy to the brink of "ever-ending disaster".

First, the spot BTC market

Today BTC is down, but the amount of energy is not obvious, funds are flowing out obviously, and some of the funds in the market are differentiated into altcoins. In a short period of time, the long and short positions continue to pass, converging along the daily level, and approaching the critical point of the changing disk. Judging from the current situation of not being able to attack for a long time, it may be more likely to go down again after changing the market, and it will support the USD 5,300 area below.

Second, the spot ETH market

At the 4 hour K-line, the MACD hovered up and down the zero axis, the Bollinger Band gradually narrowed, and multiple dojis appeared in a short period of time. On the capital side, unlike BTC's net outflow, today's net inflow of funds is consistently bullish, and the relative performance has changed from weak to strong. But the general direction is still to look at BTC, and there are obvious differences in funds on the floor.

Third, the spot BCH market

Recently, the overall trend of BCH is similar to that of BTC. It is only one week away from the next production cut, and its performance is slightly stronger than ETH. Today ’s net inflow of funds, there are still differences between long and short, mainly for retail investors, long-term linkage BTC.

Fourth, the spot LTC market

Today, LTC's capital flow has changed, and the Bollinger Bands have continued to narrow, but the volume energy and amplitude have continued to shrink, and the fish tail market has more spines and less flesh.

V. Spot EOS Quotes

EOS continues to converge. Today, funds are consistently bullish, but volume and amplitude have further shrunk, and the market is about to change .

Six, spot ETC market

Today, funds in the ETC market are divided, and retail investors continue to be bullish, but the pending orders are under pressure, and the short-term change is likely to be downward .

Analyst strategy

1 . Long line (1-3 years)

Although the long-term trend of BTC is bad, but the price is not far from the bottom, it is a good time for Tun Coin to invest. You can refer to the coin storage indicator . The smart contract platform leader ETH, altcoin leader LTC, DPoS leader EOS, BTC fork currency leader BCH, and ETH fork currency leader ETC can be configured on dips.

2 . Midline (January to March)

Affected by the financial environment, it is difficult for the market to get out of the bottom in a short period of time, and those with small positions intervene in batches .

3 Short-term (1-3 days)

The change is imminent, and continue to wait and see .

Appendix: Interpretation of Indicators

1. 8BTCCI broad market index

The 8BTCCI broad market index is composed of the most representative tokens with large scale and good liquidity in the existing global market of the blockchain to comprehensively reflect the price performance of the entire blockchain token market.

2.Bitcoin Strength Index

The Bitcoin Strength Index (BTCX) reflects the exchange rate of Bitcoin in the entire Token market, and then reflects the strength of Bitcoin's competition in the market. It is used to measure the relative change in the relative price of Bitcoin to a package of Tokens. The larger the BTCX index, the stronger the performance of Bitcoin in the Token market.

3.USDT OTC Premium Index

The ChaiNext USDT OTC INDEX index is obtained by dividing the USDT / CNY OTC price by the offshore RMB exchange rate and multiplying by 100. When the index is 100, it means the USDT parity, when the index is greater than 100, it means the USDT premium, and when it is less than 100, it means the USDT discount.

4. Net Funds Inflow (Out)

This indicator reflects the inflow and outflow of funds in the secondary market. By calculating the difference between the inflow and outflow of funds from global trading platforms (excluding false transactions), a positive value indicates a net inflow of funds, and a negative value indicates a net outflow of funds. Among them, the turnover is counted as inflow capital when rising, and the turnover is counted as outflow capital when falling.

5.BTC- coin hoarding indicator

The coin hoarding indicator was created by Weibo user ahr999 to assist bitcoin scheduled investment users to make investment decisions in conjunction with the opportunity selection strategy. This indicator consists of the product of two parts. The former is the ratio of Bitcoin price to the 200-day fixed investment cost of Bitcoin; the latter is the ratio of Bitcoin price to Bitcoin fitting price. In general, when the indicator is less than 0.45, it is more suitable to increase the investment amount (bottom-sweeping), and the time interval accounts for about 21%; when the indicator is between 0.45 and 1.2, the fixed investment strategy is suitable, and the time interval accounts for about 39 %.

Note: Crypto assets are high-risk assets. This article is for decision-making reference only and does not constitute investment advice.