On March 31st, the fourth forum of "Wind Resurgence • 2020-Global Summit of Babbitt Partners" hosted by Babbitt was launched in full swing. Mr. Zou Yongcheng, the global CEO of RRMine / Renmin Mines, joined hands with four guests to share the theme of "Large, Middle & Old Miners: Cross-border Dialogues, Halving Markets under Global Shock"
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Zou Yongcheng: Global CEO of RRMine / Renmin Mines, a member of Forbes Business Committee, China and ASEAN Certified Blockchain Application Planner, has more than 20 years of multinational operating experience;
Li Wei: Technology geek, technology investor, undergraduate of Department of Computer Science and Technology of Tsinghua University, University of International Business and Economics, majoring in finance, Renren Miner;
Xu Weizhuo: 12 years of deep education in traditional education, senior talents of Huaxi Group, Uberle International Education Group, and big miners at Renmin Mine;
Dai Yi: the founder of the Asian Blockchain Technology Association, a PhD in business administration at ISC in France, and an investor in Renren Mining Node;
Sister V : CEO of the Computing Club, ECNU MBA / Emlyon PGM, Renren Mining Node Investor;
Halving the market, changes in the amount of coins issued by miners? Zou Yongcheng responded to the topic that miners are most concerned about. He said: " Half the amount of coins to be halved will not decrease sharply. It will not have a big impact on miners who have survived in March . Everyone's mine will steadily halve. BTC halving is expected to occur around May 13. We have made a clear judgment based on market cycles and conduction effects. Of course, the hash power market contains various factors and relatively complex transmission processes. Each short-term There may be small errors in the estimated data, but the long-term general direction is accurate. "
The halving of the amount of coin issuance has little effect on miners, and the profit of coin issuance at the end of May may be higher than before
Starting from March 25, the price of the currency fluctuated around $ 6,500. From March 26, the difficulty of computing power began to adjust, and the transmission effect of the currency price was quickly reflected. The computing power of the entire network dropped to 99E, and some mining machines withdrew, the difficulty dropped by 15.95%, and the amount of coins issued increased by 15%.
Conjecture 1: It is expected that the difficulty adjustment will continue on April 9th, the currency price will continue to conduct, the computing power difficulty will decrease by about 10% again, and the amount of coins will increase by about 10%.
Speculation 2: From April 9th to May 7th, there will be two more difficulty cycle adjustments before halving. If the currency price does not change much here, the computing power of the entire network will basically remain stable, around 100E. Withdrawal volume also remained stable until halved.
Therefore, the miners who kept their power on from March until the amount of coins withdrawn before halving increased by about 25%.
Around May 13, 2020, BTC will usher in the third halving day. The reward for digging a block will be reduced from 12.5 BTC to 6.25, and the total amount of BTC coins will be reduced by 50%. However, based on the fact that from March 25 to before the halving, the amount of coins issued by miners who have kept their startups increased by about 25%. The miners who have kept their coins on since the day of halving in March have accumulated through the increase of the amount of coins issued in the previous period. Under the circumstances, the amount of coins withdrawn on the day of halving is only about 25%, and there will be no sharp drop of 50%. Therefore, no matter from the duration of the period or the fluctuation of computing power before and after the halving, the halving of the amount of coins issued has little effect on the miners who have started since March.
On the day of the halving, there is a high probability that about 40% of the miners will be shut down, and the computing power of the entire network will be sharply reduced from 100E to about 60E. That is to say, the difficulty of the entire network will be reduced by about 40% within 1 to 3 weeks, and the reduction of the computing power of the entire network will usher in a significant increase in the amount of coins. The amount of miners withdrawn at the end of May, compared with March, will increase from + 25% before halving, to -25% on the day of halving, and will increase by about 15% after 1 to 3 weeks. After entering the flood season at the beginning of June, a new dynamic balance of BTC currency and network computing power will be established. The next step is to test the platform's computing power cost and refine its operation.
RRMine is ahead , confident and optimistic, halving crossing
The Renren Mine Platform has been operating since 2017, and has steadily crossed the market's critical points. By analyzing the operating logic of the computing power market, analyzing the complex factor conduction digestion cycle, and effectively utilizing the cyclical dynamics of the computing power market, the layout is first and the response is first. Through the computing power cost advantage that is far below the market average level, the active operation logic of financial risk control, the ability to fight against business positioning, and a variety of computing power derivatives products, it helps users to combat future market risks from multiple dimensions. Even after the halving of the minimum currency yield period, the currency yield of the Renren Mine User's hash rate contract will not be greatly affected. With the new dynamic balance of the network's computing power and the arrival of the flood season, the difficulty of computing power will be reduced, and the halving market will become more optimistic after digestion.
Big, middle-class & old miners, cross-border dialogue
At the forum, technology geeks, technology investor Li Wei, founder of the Asian Blockchain Technology Association, Dai Yi, CEO of the Computing Power Club, sister V, and traditional education cross-border investor Xu Weizhuo, four “big and middle-class” cross-border “old” "Miners" expressed their opinions around the "halving market in a global shock."
Li Wei: Halving is a catalyst for supply innovation
Technology investor Li Wei said that after ten years of development, Bitcoin's growth experience has proved its value. The relationship between the halving market and the bull market is not obvious. The halving is a reduction in the supply side, and it is a time point effect. For the mining industry, the halving is only a catalyst for the supply of technological innovation. However, the price is determined by the matching of two factors, supply and demand. The adjustment of the price by the market is a process of time period, that is, after halving, the price depends on the market demand index for Bitcoin. Therefore, in terms of relative halving, some changes in the economic situation and international situation may become the real fuse of the next wave of bull markets. From a technical perspective, after 10 years of development, the cloud computing industry chain has formed a relatively complete ecosystem. In the past, cloud computing provided storage services. In the future, the computing power requirements of cloud computing will become a new focus. Currently, cloud computing power has experienced Two versions, one is the centralized computing power represented by the early Google Cloud and Alibaba Cloud, and the other is the distributed computing power based on the blockchain technology mining behavior of Renren Mines. The development of decentralization has become an important trend.
Xu Weizhuo: Jump out of traditional channels and discover new continents
Xu Weizhuo, a traditional education cross-border investor, believes that in the supply and demand relationship of bitcoin, the global bitcoin output will decrease from a total of 1800 to 900 in May this year, but the demand side will not decrease. Definitely continuing to grow. In this dynamic supply and demand relationship, Bitcoin's deflation model will make its price and value higher and higher, so it is bullish for a long time. In the past two halvings, the bull market did not happen immediately after the halving. After the output is halved, the currency price may go sideways for a period of time or even fall, but it is safe for miners to mine. Fortunately, the long-term hoarding of coins is the right way. In addition, the halving of the market and the constant or falling currency price will cause some small and medium-sized mining sites with higher mining costs to be eliminated, resulting in a decline in global computing power, reduced mining difficulty, and increased coin output. Cognitive tax is fierce than coin tax. Facing the uncertainty of the future, people need to continuously learn and grow, breaking the solidified thinking of only obtaining wealth through time. She stated that she has also been out of the stable state of the traditional industry by allocating the computing power contract assets of everyone's mines, and constantly pursues the independence and improvement of personal cognition.
Sister V : The traditional finance and computing power industries have similar logic, and there are unequal opportunities.
Sister V, CEO of the Computing Club, believes that the current blockchain is like the Internet in 2000 and is full of opportunities. The halving of the market will eliminate a group of old machines with backward computing power and small and medium-sized miners with limited anti-risk capabilities. The industry will also undergo a reshuffle. Whoever prepares and arranges in advance will have a chance to usher in new opportunities. After halving, the price of the currency may not rise immediately. If so, the difficulty of computing power will be reduced, which also gives cloud computing miners a good opportunity to continue to bottom out and hoard. The relationship between traditional finance and computing power industries is like two parallel worlds, with similar logic, but there are unequal opportunities. As a node investor who has been deeply involved in Renren Mine since its early stages, he has witnessed the development of the cloud computing industry. It is also believed through practice that everyone can make money within the cognitive scope. I hope more people will find their own time machine in the parallel world and seize the asymmetric opportunity.
Dai Yi: Looking at the halving market from the financial cycle
Dai Yi, founder of the Asian Blockchain Technology Association, believes that traditional finance has had a cyclical pattern for hundreds of years. The market performance after halving several times in the past, and non-linear thinking can help us infer the market. It is recommended that you review the development history of traditional finance and bitcoin, and you can see some market trends. Investing itself is something that only a few people who can delay gratification and not follow the sentiment of the market can succeed. Miners who are willing to cultivate the primary market and slowly dig bitcoin are more aristocratic than the secondary market speculators. They can frankly dig deep into the underlying value without caring about the momentary gains and losses. Facing the special period of financial turmoil, the computing power industry itself is a production mix with lower cost than the secondary market. During this period, mining machine manufacturers will discount, electricity, space, high-tech will have state subsidies, and computing power users will also have low costs. Get more computing power. I believe that the users of many people's mines are the same. After understanding the underlying logic of the cloud computing power industry, all we need to do is to withstand the periodic fluctuations and wait for the prosperity. I call on everyone who is mining to be a long-termist.