The worst situation has not come yet, analysis of epidemic situation and economic situation

In these two days, bitcoin repeatedly hit or even jumped over $ 7,000. The small market once again caused a commotion in the circle. We need to remind everyone here that such a "market" is not worth paying attention to. We should invest and save money. Don't be distracted by some insignificant information to affect our judgment on the general trend.

There are currently only two core elements that determine the general development: the development of the epidemic and the deterioration of the economic situation .

Yesterday the United States released two very sensitive information, which is closely related to the development of the epidemic and the deterioration of the economic situation:

First, the US State Department tweeted that Americans overseas should return immediately, unless they intend to stay overseas permanently;

Second, the United States announced the latest number of claims for unemployment benefits: 6.648 million.

We must prepare for the worst of the worst consequences. Let ’s look at the second point first: the latest unemployment figure is 6.648 million.

This data has doubled from the 3.3 million seen last week, and Wall Street ’s response to this has been relatively calm. The three major stock indexes have only fallen slightly by less than 2 percent. Many people think that this is because Wall Street has reflected this expectation into the stock market. I do n’t think so. I think this is just a force for the next round of plunge. Because the catastrophe that completely collapsed investor sentiment is yet to come.

California and Massachusetts, the major economic centers in the United States, only started to close their retail business in mid-March. It has only been 3 weeks since then, so the deterioration of the situation is only the beginning.

Now the unemployed can still live on relief. What will happen to the US economy in the future when more and more people are unemployed and the benefits cannot be maintained?

Not only the United States, but any country in the world will face great challenges. The United States has at least disclosed its unemployed population. This data has at least one data regardless of whether it is true or not, while other countries do not even have data. I am afraid the actual situation will be worse.

Let ’s look at the first one: The US State Department urges Americans overseas to return home.

What is the meaning behind this policy? I think there are two points:

One is that the United States may soon completely cut off sea, land and air transportation connecting the world . Otherwise, if the transportation routes continue to be open, American citizens can return home at any time. There is no need for the State Department to urge citizens to return home.

The United States is the country with the largest global trade and business contacts. If the United States suspends navigation, the global economic and trade and industrial chain will be devastated and even completely cut off. At that time, each country can only rely on its own internal circulation to support it.

Under the circumstances that the global economy has long been integrated, the industrial chain has been severely cut off. How many countries can survive this disaster only by internal circulation, we cannot speculate.

The second is that the United States may soon completely block the national border and prohibit the entry of all personnel. The "all personnel" here includes not only foreigners but also Americans, so the US government should urge all citizens to return to the country as soon as possible before the policy is issued, otherwise there will be no more opportunities.

Some readers see this and think this will be the input of the United States in order to prevent the new crown epidemic. I'm afraid it's not that simple.

In fact, the United States banned people from entering Europe as early as March 13 and even banned China from entering China at the end of January. Although the United States has not completely blocked all the countries where the epidemic has occurred, I am afraid that if the United States intends to completely block the country, there may be a deeper consideration.

Under what circumstances can a country completely block its borders? There is only one situation: I do n’t want to deal with you at all, I do n’t want to have any friendship with you, and I do n’t care about what you think.

Let ’s think again about the slackness of governments in dealing with the epidemic and the increasing number of “dumping pans” now, and even asking some countries to compensate for this. This series of phenomena shows that many countries have been unable to respond to the epidemic. In this case, the easiest thing to do is to provoke national emotions, divert attention, and be consistent with the outside world .

What will happen if things really go in this direction?

We can't estimate that we are just ordinary people. All we can do is wear a seat belt. We can estimate the worst situation and protect ourselves, family and wealth.