QKL123 market analysis | It is obviously related to dark web activities, and the demand for Bitcoin has dropped sharply? (0402)

Summary: Bitcoin is oscillating upwards, but the market risk aversion has not diminished, and there is a suspicion of main washing. The Chainalysis report revealed that due to the negative impact of the new crown epidemic, the recent dark web activity has shown an unprecedentedly strong correlation with the price of Bitcoin, but there was no obvious correlation last year.

At 10:30 today, the 8BTCCI broad market index reported 9311.51 points, with a 24-hour ups and downs of + 3.52%, reflecting the market's upward movement. The Bitcoin Strength Index reported at 100.04 points, with a 24-hour increase or decrease of + 2.54%. The relative performance of Bitcoin in the entire market has become significantly stronger ; The level of external premiums has declined .

Analyst's point of view:

In a report by Chainalysis, a study was conducted on recent merchant services, gaming services and darknet activities related to Bitcoin, and it was found that the new crown epidemic had a significant impact on these related activities. In particular, dark web activities have shown an unprecedentedly strong correlation with the price of Bitcoin, and there was no obvious correlation during the entire year last year. The correlation coefficient of merchant service demand and bitcoin price has dropped significantly, from 0.47 last year to 0.24, showing a certain "anti-epidemic" elastic change. In addition, there is still no obvious correlation between gaming service activities and bitcoin price performance (the correlation coefficient remains near 0).

At present, the market's demand for Bitcoin mainly includes three categories:

One type is investment or speculative demand . As the number of global trading platforms continues to increase, the demand brought by secondary market transactions itself continues to increase. In the past five years, the number of Bitcoin transactions in the secondary market has shown a trend of nearly doubling in growth over the past two years. It can be said that this is an important reason to support the rising price of Bitcoin.

The first category is payment transaction requirements , which can be divided into legal transactions and illegal transactions.

Legal transactions mainly refer to transactions generated by ordinary users purchasing goods and services through online and offline merchants. However, due to the high volatility of bitcoin prices, the lack of supporting infrastructure, and the technical deficiencies of the project itself, the ordinary people are far away. For example, in countries such as Japan and the United States that have a development attitude towards bitcoin payments, the general public still uses fiat cash or bank credit cards as the main payment tool, and rarely uses bitcoin as a payment tool.

Illegal transactions correspond to illegal activities. In order to circumvent legal sanctions, gambling services, dark web black market, fraud, money laundering and other illegal activities will choose anonymous payment tools. Last year's capital market PlusToken swept more than 100 countries and regions around the world, affecting about 3 million people, involving an amount of 20 billion yuan. Due to the huge amount of funds involved, the incident played a role in boosting the market trend of Bitcoin around June last year.

The first category is demand for hedging . Bitcoin and gold have different hedging properties, and have historically been used as a refuge for fiat currency devaluation or dishonesty. For example, under extreme events such as the past Cyprus banking crisis, Venezuela ’s hyperinflation, and India ’s abolition of large banknotes, some people will choose Bitcoin to avoid such risks.

Recently, under the two-way impact of New Crown Virus on the global supply side and demand side, world economic activity has decreased significantly, which has also had many negative effects on the demand for Bitcoin payment transactions. This is the aspect revealed by the Chainalysis report, but the results of the research exceeded the expectations of most people: the related dark web activity actually declined significantly with the price of Bitcoin .

1. Spot BTC market

For a short time, BTC has a small amount of significant volume. Today's funds are obviously consistent and bullish, but it is not an obvious change signal. If the market is consistently bullish, altcoins should have a larger increase, but Bitcoin is relatively strong, indicating that the market still has obvious differences in this position. Moreover, the global capital market is still ups and downs, which brings many risks to the crypto asset market. Pay attention to the upper resistance for a short time. If there is no continuous amount to support, it is the main deliberate wash.

Second, the spot ETH market

ETH 's upward willingness is not strong , MACD is still hovering around the zero axis for 4 hours. There are obvious differences in the net inflow of funds today, the main force is short. Continue to look at BTC in the direction. If BTC breaks upwards successfully, there is more room for supplementary gains, but if it cannot be broken through, it will go down to support.

Three, spot BCH market

BCH will open the block reward halving within a week, but today did not link BTC to a strong upward move, indicating that the funds on the floor are obviously divergent. It is difficult to realize the positive expectations, and pay attention to the BTC breakthrough in a short time.

Fourth, spot LTC market

LTC linked BTC up. Today, the flow of funds continues to be excessive, but there is no obvious amount to support it. The main force will dominate the market in a short time , and the possibility of washing the market is greater.

Five, spot EOS market

The performance of EOS is similar to that of LTC. At present, it has not reached the previous high point. The willingness to attack is weak, and it continues to link BTC.

Six, spot ETC market

ETC's market investors are still bullish on the market today, but the overall trend continues to converge, with greater uncertainty in the short term.

Seven, analyst strategy

1 . Long-term (1-3 years)

Although the long-term trend of BTC is bad, but the price is not far from the bottom, it is a good time to invest in Tuncoin. You can refer to the hoarding currency index . Smart contract platform leader ETH, altcoin leader LTC, DPoS leader EOS, BTC fork currency leader BCH, ETH fork currency leader ETC can be configured on dips.

2 . Midline (January-March)

Affected by the financial environment, it is difficult for the market to get out of the bottom in a short time, and those who do not have a heavy position will intervene in batches .

3 . Short-term (1-3 days)

Suspected dishwashing, the camera moved.


Appendix: Interpretation of Indicators

1. 8BTCCI broad market index

The 8BTCCI broad market index is composed of the most representative tokens with large scale and good liquidity in the existing blockchain global market to comprehensively reflect the price performance of the entire blockchain token market.

2. Bitcoin Strength Index

The Bitcoin Strength Index (BTCX) reflects the indicators of Bitcoin exchange in the entire Token market, and then reflects the competition strength of Bitcoin in the market. It is used to measure the degree of change in the relative price of Bitcoin to the package of Token. The larger the BTCX index, the stronger the performance of Bitcoin in the Token market.

3. USDT OTC discount premium index

The ChaiNext USDT OTC INDEX is obtained by dividing the USDT / CNY OTC price by the offshore RMB exchange rate and multiplying by 100. When the index is 100, it means USDT parity. If the index is greater than 100, it means USDT premium. If it is less than 100, it means USDT discount.

4. Net capital inflow (outflow)

This indicator reflects the inflow and outflow of funds in the secondary market. By calculating the difference between the inflow and outflow of the global trading platform (excluding false transactions), a positive value indicates a net inflow of funds, and a negative value indicates a net outflow of funds. Among them, the turnover is counted as inflow capital when rising, and the turnover is counted as outflow capital when falling.

5. BTC- coin indicator

The coin hoarding indicator is created by Weibo user ahr999, and assists Bitcoin fixed investment users to make investment decisions in combination with the opportunistic strategy. The indicator consists of the product of two parts. The former is the ratio of the price of Bitcoin to the 200-day fixed investment cost of Bitcoin; the latter is the ratio of the price of Bitcoin to the fitting price of Bitcoin. Generally, when the indicator is lower than 0.45, it is more suitable to increase the investment amount (bottom bargaining), the time interval accounts for about 21%; when the indicator is between 0.45 and 1.2, it is suitable to adopt a fixed investment strategy, the time interval accounts for about 39 %.

Note: Encrypted assets are high-risk assets. This article is for decision-making reference only and does not constitute investment advice.