The horrifying headline "Globalization is dead" is actually not unique to today.
It's just that the previous "killer" is not enough. This time, finally, the new crown virus, the big devil, is here.
An example of this is the March 20 article of the US Foreign Policy magazine, titled "How the World Will Look After the Coronavirus Pandemic" and subtitled "The pandemic will change the world forever. We asked 12 leading global thinkers for their predictions. "
- The National Development and Reform Commission answered the reporter's question and asked about the blockchain: the formation of a new type of real economy under the digital economy
- Danger and Change: Can China Seize the Breakthrough Opportunity of the Digital Economy?
- Party newspaper: the country's first blockchain membership card issued in Hangzhou
- Depth | Business opportunities brought by ABCDI in the era of digital new infrastructure
- Meng Yan: The pass-through economy is a relatively mild road to the digital economy
- Babbitt Column | Digital Economy and Digital Rule of Law
The purpose of this article is to say that the global pandemic of the new coronavirus will permanently change the world. There are two main conclusions:
1. The world will not be as open, prosperous and free as it is now. (World Less Open, Prosperous, and Free)
2. The end of globalization as we know it. (The End of Globalization as We Know It)
The founder of "Foreign Policy" is Samuel Huntington, the master of "Clash of Civilizations". It has been recognized as one of the most influential international relations research publications in the world for many years.
Of course, this old-fashioned publication will not write like "self-media" "shocked, globalization is dead, something burns paper!"
But the tone of the whole article is pessimistic about the future of globalization. Many arguments are also listed to support this argument.
However, Uncle Cat doesn't think so.
Let's talk about the facts first.
If we divide globalization into four major aspects: people flow, logistics, capital flow and information flow.
The flow of people may be less than 10% before the new crown broke out.
Logistics may be less than 50% of the new crown outbreak period.
From the perspective of the flow of people and logistics, globalization is not dead, and shock is no problem. This is also the main argument for the various arguments against globalization.
However, the globalization of people logistics is not the main component of globalization.
What about capital flow? At most, it will be reduced to 80% or 90% before the new crown.
What about information flow? The sudden explosive growth was N times before the new crown.
According to foreign media reports, Yuan Zheng, the CEO of video conferencing software provider Zoom, recently said that his eponymous video conferencing application Zoom has more than 200 million daily active users, a 20-fold increase from the end of December last year.
Zoom is a representative of the globalization of the digital economy. In addition to this popular fried chicken, the data of Uncle Cat ’s friends are not bad.
The impact of the new coronavirus is objective, and to some extent, it is a mass extinction event.
Biological mass extinction refers to mass extinction of clusters. Organisms, whole heads, and even whole classes of organisms disappear completely in a short time or only a few survive. During the extinction of clusters, it is often that all species in the entire taxon disappear. The mass extinction signifies that no matter how important the organism is in the ecosystem, it can't escape disaster, and often many different groups of organisms are extinct together.
However, every time the mass extinction, there are always some groups survived, and some groups were born or flourished. This is called Explosion.
The biological extinction and the biological outbreak have occurred many times in the history of our planet. The most famous one is the Cambrian Explosion . In a geological historical period called the Cambrian about 530 million years ago, a variety of animals, such as arthropods, brachiopods, worms, sponges, and notochords, suddenly appeared on the earth in more than 20 million years. A series of animals with the same shape as modern animals came to a "collective appearance" on the earth, forming a prosperous scene in which a variety of animals exist at the same time.
Based on the fossil data found so far, there is a general consensus in the academic community that a global biological mass extinction event occurred at the end of the Precambrian. This mass extinction event and a huge negative carbon isotope event (BACE event) occurred in time Match up. This mass extinction event is believed to have been caused by abnormal changes in the earth ’s environment.
After the mass extinction, there was an explosion.
The global pandemic outbreak of the new coronavirus will indeed change the political, economic and social environment of the entire world, causing many companies to go bankrupt and go bankrupt, just like the biological extinction.
However, the ecological niche vacated by these extinct traditional enterprises is just a strategic vacuum that Chinese Internet practitioners or digital economy practitioners need to fill quickly. The process of filling the strategic vacuum is the process of the digital economy's ecological explosion.
The mortality rate of the new coronavirus infection is about 1%. In the worst case, more than 700 million people can survive in the world. The needs of these people for food, clothing, housing, eating, drinking, drinking and playing have not disappeared, but the morphological changes have occurred. Going down to online, it has become a new format of digital social networking, digital entertainment, digital currency, video conferencing, e-commerce, telemedicine, etc.
The global traditional enterprises are extinct due to the impact of the new crown, and global user demand has not disappeared but just transformed . This is a rare opportunity for Chinese Internet practitioners or digital economy practitioners. Whoever can seize the opportunity will become a new one. Winner.
There is also a small advantage, the biggest competitor of China's digital economy, has begun a global contraction.
The demise of traditional enterprises and the global contraction of competitors have left a huge “strategic vacuum” for the global practitioners of China ’s digital economy. How to view and use this “strategic vacuum” requires courage, wisdom, determination and strength.
What we can see is that China's digital economy leaders Tencent, Ali, and Toutiao, and China's venture capital leaders Sequoia and Gao Leng, not only did not "flee the army" in front of the new crown virus, but increased investment in global layout. .
In early March 2020, ByteDance CEO Zhang Yiming issued an internal letter in the company, announcing the structural adjustment, with Zhang Lidong and Zhang Nan fully in charge of the China region, Zhang Yiming himself focused on the development of globalization strategies and conducted long-term exploration of major topics and strategies Thinking, including new business directions such as global corporate management research, corporate social responsibility, and education. At the same time, Zhang Yiming will spend more effort to improve the byte-beating global management team.
They stand tall and look far, what about others?
Take financial workers and policy makers.
First of all, smart investors, including managers of government-backed funds, should, like Huawei build the HMS (Huawei Mobile Services) ecosystem, take a thorough look at all global Internet companies in China, according to key indicators such as the number of real users and income. Make a ranking, knock on the door one by one and chat. If you feel good and the price is right, invest some money to buy a boat ticket to the sea.
Second, policy makers should study Huang Qifan's recent signed article "Three Thoughts on the Reconstruction of the Global Industrial Chain under the Spread of the New Crown Outbreak". Seeing the opportunity of the industrial chain restructuring caused by the epidemic, the active layout of the major powers The economic development after the epidemic made China's contribution in restructuring the global value chain and restoring the world economic order. Specifically in the field of digital economy, Uncle Mao believes that China's own globalized digital economy enterprises should be called for "exemption rights" or "special channels" to return to the country for listing .
Due to various reasons, most of the globalized enterprises in China have accepted the investment of many US dollar funds to build a VIE structure. The managers of these US dollar funds are mostly Chinese or Chinese, which can be regarded as "Chinese" in nature. It is also investing in "strategic emerging industries". Only by continuing to deepen reform and opening up and welcoming these outstanding enterprises back to the country for listing can a virtuous circle of capital markets be formed and help build a "community of destiny" for the Chinese people and the people of the world.
This work is easy to say and easy to do, because many leaders of globalized overseas companies, especially Shenzhen companies, are particularly low-key. They usually avoid the spotlight and do not like to appear on various media lists and reports, so Uncle Cat No more specific names in the article, private chat is welcome.
Thanks for your attention and reading. Someone asked who is Uncle Cat?
Regardless of black cats and white cats, good cats can catch the mouse.
Uncle Mao is a globalization and digital economy researcher, practitioner and investor who lives in Shenzhen. He shares his observations and analysis with everyone through a written conversation.
If there are any deficiencies, please leave a message to correct me and seek for them together.