Black swan is frequent, where is the way out of the blockchain industry?

At the 2019 Alibaba Cloud Conference, Jianguo Fei, vice president of Ant Financial Services Group and president of the intelligent technology business group, once said that the amount of blockchain on the chain will be an important indicator of the digital economy era, tens of millions of daily blockchain Applications will appear, but four core technical issues are required: performance, security, cost, and connectivity .

I quite agree with this point of view. The amount of on-chain is an important indicator to measure the activity of blockchain business and users, but the amount of on-chain must be real to make sense. What I mean is that these active users come from real needs , There is a real business need, not "on the chain for the sake of chain".

Ten-thousand-level performance indicators are not unattainable in terms of current technical capabilities. On the contrary, how to realize the accumulation of ten-thousand-level users is a relatively big problem. Now, it is still lacking such applications that can gather large-scale users, How to catch the real needs of users is the most urgent problem to be solved.

Where is the difficulty of living for thousands of days? ?

In fact, the performance requirements for the blockchain itself may not be as exaggerated as we thought. So what is the concept of tens of thousands of daily lives?

Through simple calculations, we can know that if the TPS can reach 250 transactions per second, it means that the 24-hour transaction volume can reach the level of 20 million transactions (250 × 60 seconds × 60 minutes × 24 hours = 21.6 million), Because most applications will not be in the state of high-frequency trading 24 hours, generally 12 hours should meet the needs of the system, so 20 million divided by 2, exactly 10 million.

In other words, a TPS of 250 strokes per second is enough. This is a performance requirement that can be achieved by many blockchain platforms. Not all platforms need to pursue a million-level TPS. For the platform, considering TPS needs to be combined with business. Compared with TPS, doing a top-level business design is a more important issue than TPS. Of course, tens of millions of transactions are not equivalent to tens of thousands of daily lives. In the example we mentioned above, TPS is only 250. For many technical platforms, 1000 or even thousands of TPS can now be easily achieved.

On four core technical issues: performance, safety, cost, and connectivity.

We have discussed performance issues just now. If there is proper scenario planning and architecture design, performance issues are not difficult to solve.

The security problem is a big problem. Sometimes for the financial industry, such as banks, any security risks are very troublesome things. If the CBRC is found in routine inspections, even if such risks have not yet formed actual harm and For losses, banks will be severely accountable by the China Banking Regulatory Commission and will be required to make corrections within a time limit.

If there is a security problem, it may not be a simple criticism of education, but the black gauze hat fell to the ground and even went to jail. Therefore, the financial industry needs a lot of determination to try to adopt new technologies. Manufacturers must have sufficiently complete, comprehensive, and testable solutions in terms of security in order to dispel the concerns of bank customers.

Cost is also a very important issue. Cost can be simply divided into two parts, direct cost and indirect cost. The direct cost is the direct cost of the enterprise on the chain, including the cost of server procurement, software procurement, system development, implementation, operation and maintenance. Indirect costs are more complicated. For example, in order to launch a blockchain platform, many platforms may need to be transformed, networks and security equipment may need to be upgraded, and many businesses need to be adjusted. This series of work requires costs and certain risks. , So these factors will also affect customer decisions.

This requires that the blockchain platform has better compatibility and scalability, and a more comprehensive understanding of customer needs and difficulties. Only in this way can it be more easily accepted by customers, thereby reducing the adoption and application of blockchain technology Difficulty.

The connection problem is a business problem. To be precise, it is the ability to build ecology, gather different “producers” and “consumers” on a platform, connect the needs of multiple parties, connect the value of multiple parties, and realize the output and flow of value This is a huge challenge to the platform's comprehensive operating capabilities. This platform may be a public chain, or it may be a bank or an insurance company, and they will operate the ecology. The blockchain is only the underlying technology and is a tool attribute.

In the history of the development of new technologies, only technologies that have practical significance can really develop. The same is true for the blockchain industry. This is the lifeblood of the industry and the hope of the currency market!

Nothing is more important than scene innovation

For many people, the blockchain has the benefits of decentralization and trust, because the blockchain can be distributed accounting, data can not be deleted, and cannot be tampered with. From a technical point of view, this is correct. However, how to transform the technical benefits into a reasonable scenario is actually a real big problem, and it is also a problem that the blockchain industry does not currently solve well. Therefore, we often see exciting projects one after another, which are not done well in the end, and even disappeared.

In fact, we can sometimes refer to the development process of big data, cloud computing and artificial intelligence, which are also emerging technologies.

Big data technology can help companies manage historical data and analyze it to provide support for corporate decision-making. With the development of Internet technology, the scale of information expansion is accelerating. Big data technology, through distributed databases and parallel databases, can also It is a good solution to the problem of large-scale data management and analysis. Although there is still a long way to go in the field of forecasting, it has solved most of the data management problems of enterprises.

Cloud computing can provide enterprises with the flexibility to expand IT infrastructure by virtualizing physical resources, while at the same time it can greatly reduce the IT construction costs, difficulty and risks of enterprises. With the blessing of cloud computing technology, users can omit the complicated IT infrastructure construction process, and no longer need to build a computer room by themselves, but only purchase the services of cloud computing vendors when needed. Just like the people in the past who drink water to make their own wells, and modern people only need to install the tap in the bought house, and then unscrew it to have water to drink.

From these two examples, we can see that big data and cloud computing technologies have solved the user's just needs, so they have been able to flourish, achieve themselves in the process of achieving customers, and iterate themselves.

The same is true of artificial intelligence. The current wave of artificial intelligence development is mainly due to the development of deep learning technology, especially due to the development of convolutional neural network technology. This technology requires a lot of data to support it to complete the model training work, and at the same time also requires a lot of computing power resources (CPU, memory). Big data and cloud computing have well supported the development of artificial intelligence, and artificial intelligence technology has made great progress in the recognition of text, pictures, audio, and video.

It can provide valuable help to users in many very practical scenarios. For example, Douyin's videos are stored on cloud platforms of cloud computing vendors, and the review of a large amount of content will only be released after the machine screening and manual review. Among them, the machine selection process is identified by artificial intelligence models that identify yellow (yellow), terrorist (terror), violence (violence), and political (political), and these models are all data through big data platforms. Support to complete the training. This scenario is a good fusion of cloud computing, big data, and artificial intelligence technologies, and it is indispensable. Solving platform content risks and reducing audit costs are just needs for Douyin. This scenario can really help the development of technology. The scene is a scene worth learning from the blockchain industry.

The reason why any industry can form an industry is because of technological progress, but more importantly, they can solve specific problems, and these problems are either impossible to solve before, or they are not good before. This is true for the artificial intelligence, big data, and cloud computing industries, as well as the blockchain industry.

With the advent of the outbreak of the black swan, the blockchain industry is falling to the bottom, but the real Phoenix will always be reborn, hoping that the blockchain can find its own scene, and innovation is the driving force for the development of the industry, but at this moment, The blockchain industry needs to complete this innovative process as soon as possible on the scene side!