Buffett's "cutting meat" sells aviation stocks, my analysis of the future investment market

Recently, the stablecoin USDT has been issued again, as well as USDC, PAX and HUSD.

Some people think that according to the usual experience, when the additional USDT is issued, it indicates that the price of bitcoin will rise sharply in the next period of time. Not to mention whether this phenomenon is an inevitable law, even if it was once a law, but in the current environment, I think it should be treated with caution.

Earlier, when I analyzed why bitcoin plummeted with the stock market and gold, I said that bitcoin's plunge is because investors are beginning to be pessimistic about the prospects of all investment products, so all investment products are sold only to hold cash.

This pessimism has not stabilized until now, so as long as the general environment has not improved, the new crown epidemic has not been contained, and global investor sentiment cannot be calm in the short term, so everyone will still focus on holding cash.

Therefore, I believe that the large number of stable currency issuances does not necessarily mean that Bitcoin will rise immediately. It is more likely that the investor's demand for stable currency for hedging has increased.

For investors who are purely for hedging purposes, I suggest that you pay special attention to the risks of stablecoins when choosing to buy stablecoins, mainly the issuance of stablecoin credits, and GUSD and PAX are the best credits among stablecoins. Because they need to mortgage dollars when issuing stablecoins and the mortgages are subject to the supervision of third-party institutions.

The fraud incident of Ruixing Coffee is a topic that the media has paid close attention to in recent days. Many media discussed the possible chain reaction after Ruixing Coffee blew up. What I am more concerned about is why Ruixing Coffee was exposed at this time, and was exposed by itself?

In fact, the US muddy water research company (the muddy water company mainly exposed the false financial reports of Chinese companies listed in the United States), as early as February, issued a report on short Ruixing coffee, but at that time almost all major investment banks and related Institutions are silent.

I believe that for the inside story of fraud, the senior management of Ruixing cannot be unaware, and must have known it from the beginning, but why did it choose to expose in this way at this time?

Someone on the Internet has opened up a series of "bureaus" to illustrate the underlying reasons for this exposure. Whether this is really the case, it is still impossible to judge, but I think the water inside must be deep.

Let's not talk about what Ruixing and related institutions will face next, there is one thing we will definitely see: All Chinese companies listed in the United States and Chinese stocks will be hit hard .

Next, all Chinese stocks will be shorted, and any problems will be pursued or even amplified. In this case, on the one hand, investors 'panic selling may cause the stock prices of these companies to plummet, on the other hand, investors' class actions will bring down these companies …

Once these Chinese stocks are hit hard, the chain reaction they cause will certainly be reflected in the domestic financial and securities markets, and all investors have to be highly vigilant .

Another piece of information that caught my attention is that Buffett recently sold off the aviation stocks he bought. This is an extremely rare act of Buffett. Many media have interpreted Buffett's move as a sell-off for stop-loss, which is simply not understanding Buffett's investment logic. According to Buffett's investment logic, he sells stocks not because he has to stop selling because the price has fallen to the stop loss level, but when he thinks that a company's future trends and development cannot support the current stock price .

When the financial crisis broke out in 2008, Buffett boldly entered the market and began to buy Goldman Sachs stocks. After buying, Goldman Sachs stocks continued to plunge, but Buffett not only sold but increased positions.

Why is his approach to aviation stocks very different this time? I think there is only one reason: he believes that the aviation industry has not been saved, at least in the short term it will not get better. What does it mean for the aviation industry to deteriorate and not be saved in the current situation where the aviation industry is already terrible? This means that a large number of companies may go bankrupt and reorganize .

Although both of these news occurred in the US investment market, the chain reaction caused by the two will inevitably affect all financial markets in China and the world.

In the past, I always wrote in the article that the darkest moment has not yet arrived, but now I see the darkest moment slowly unfolding.