Bitcoin is up 8%, and the bull market is in doubt?

The new crown epidemic continues to spread, with more than 1.34 million confirmed cases worldwide, and the death toll in the United States has also exceeded the 10,000 mark. However, with newly confirmed cases in New York State and other heavily endemic areas beginning to show signs of stability, last night, the US stocks Dow Jones index soared 1627 points, an increase of 7.73%, to close at 22679.99 points, the highest since March 13. The S & P 500 index and the Nasdaq index also rose fiercely, with gains exceeding 7%.

At the same time, European stock markets closed sharply higher, with the British FTSE 100 index, the German DAX30 index, and the French CAC40 index all increasing by more than 3%. In the Asia-Pacific market, Japan and South Korea stocks also rose sharply, and Hong Kong stocks rose strongly. The global stock market is collectively higher.

Due to the continuous stimulus measures of various countries around the world, the price of gold also soared this Monday. COMEX gold futures contract in June once hit a seven-year high of 1715.8 US dollars per ounce, and finally closed at 1693.9 US dollars per ounce, an increase of 2.93%. "Digital gold" Bitcoin has also risen sharply. QKL123 market shows that bitcoin rose 8.41% in the day, temporarily reported $ 7409, setting a high since March 12, and has recovered most of the decline since the "312 plunge". The goodness of the macro market is also considered to be an important factor in this surge.

WX20200407-094726 @ 2x

In fact, since the “halving sex” plunge in March, the short-selling sentiment in the Bitcoin market has been dominant. OKEx data shows that the number of long and short BTC positions has been below 1 since most of March 13, and it was as low as 0.64 on March 20. Similarly, the average ratio of BTC elite long and short positions has always been dominated by short positions.

OKEx ratio

Nonetheless, Bitcoin has continued to rise in a wide range of shocks, and the most recent 4-hour candle has shown 8 consecutive days. The continuous rise is also accompanied by a large number of short positions. Coin data shows that in the past 24 hours, the entire network BTC has burst a total of 100 million US dollars, and shorts have become a rising fuel.

In fact, Bitcoin's continuous rise is not surprising. Since 2019, Bitcoin has evolved into a market dominated by futures, and the "National Contract" has become a new symbol of the market. After the plunge, the bitcoin futures holdings of major exchanges also fell into a downturn. The plate is lighter, it is easier to pull and smash the plate, and the amplitude of thousands of knives becomes a commonplace after the plunge. Some people joked that Bitcoin's fluctuations made people think that they bought altcoins. At the same time, the sentiment of the hollow side of the market is very strong, and it seems to become a consensus that short selling on rallies can make money.

However, we must know that the market is always anti-human. In a highly controlled market, when most people reach a consensus on one direction, then this direction may be wrong. After going short on rallies, more and more people find that shorting seems to be about equal to profit, and the bulls are gradually being dumped. Bitcoin pulled up and shorted; pulled up again and added short again until the liquidation became a rising fuel.

On the other hand, many investors analyzed the bear market in 2018 as a sample, and believed that after the market plummeted, they would definitely bottom out for a healthy rise. However, the banker's method has been constantly updated, and does not necessarily follow the original routine. We can see that in the wide-ranging shock after the plunge, hundreds of millions of dollars of liquidation are common, and investors who enter the market have few profits, so what about these Bitcoins? Perhaps it has already been taken by the dealer. Continuously attracting funds during the shock may replace the sideways and become a new method.

The bull market comes in suspicion, the bear market is reached in consensus, and the 28 rule always needs us to remember. Many times, we may need to jump out and look at this market calmly.