Tone Vays entered the cryptocurrency field in early 2013 and is now a well-known analyst in the circle, always working to promote the development of cryptographic assets to achieve economic freedom.
After 10 years on Wall Street, he worked for investment bank Bear Stearns and JPMorgan Chase. He was the "first-hand" witness to the 2008 economic crisis, and Bitcoin was born with this crisis.
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Vays also starred in a number of documentaries – "Magic Money" and "Bitcoin – Beyond Bubbles." Today, he is an independent content creator with his own website and youtube channel, which focuses on sound economics and finance.
In a recent interview, he talked about the threats Bitcoin faced, the Lightning Network, STO, and his predictions for the trend of Bitcoin this year.
The following is the full text of the interview:
Venezuelan LocalBitcoin trading volume is growing, what do you think of this?
Tone Vays: It won't have much impact… Many of the tables on LocalBitcoin are denominated in local currency, because the local currency is depreciating constantly, so the data on these charts looks amazing, but if I switch to dollars, I don't think There will be huge amounts of data. One reason is that in countries like Venezuela, people hold less assets and $100 has little impact on Bitcoin.
What is the biggest threat to Bitcoin?
Tone Vays: In 2014, I wrote an article titled "What is the biggest threat to Bitcoin?" The answer I gave at the time was the same as 'the wrong information'. Today's situation is even worse, because some of us now think Bitcoin cash (BCH) or Bitcoin SV (BSV) is bitcoin, and supporters of Ripple (XRP) and Ethereum (ETH) try to convince the world that they are useless. The token is better than the bitcoin. The second biggest threat may be a blow to global governments, as most developed countries criminalize anonymous bitcoin transactions.
Do you think it is possible for us to wait until the central bank holds bitcoin? Is it possible for a collapsed national economy to adopt "bitcoin standards" instead of dollarization?
Tone Vays: Yes, I believe that both of these things happen more than 50% in my lifetime. This is one of the reasons why I will continue HODL Bitcoin even in a bear market.
Will high anonymity create regulatory barriers that affect the overall popularity of Bitcoin?
Tone Vays: Yes, although I support bitcoin deployment anonymity, I even think this should be a default feature, but I also think that not choosing anonym should make things a lot easier. There are many features that should not require anonymity. If one day's tax revenue is transmitted completely transparently through the Bitcoin network, the future of Bitcoin may be brighter. In addition, although Bitcoin continues to grow and develop, the government has less conflict with it because it is not completely anonymous.
Are you optimistic about the lightning network? What can it do for bitcoin?
Tone Vays: Very optimistic. It allows Bitcoin for instant, private and low-cost transactions (less than 1 cent fee). This is significant for widespread adoption, which means that no other cryptocurrency is needed to increase payment efficiency.
Do you like to analyze the long-term trend of Bitcoin halving cycle?
Tone Vays: I like the halving cycle too much, which has a crazy impact on the profitability of the ecosystem and miners. At the time of the last halving, I correctly analyzed that the price of the currency will start to rise within three to six months before the halving. I think this will be the case this year, but this is not the ideal way of analysis. I am more optimistic about time analysis and long-term cycles, which help me predict some interesting turning points. One of the key dates is October 5, 2019, let's look forward to what will happen.
What do you think will be the price of Bitcoin by the end of 2019?
Tone Vays: I hope the price is around $5,000 and the bear market is over. But market forecasts are really hard.
Do you think STO has a reasonable application scenario? Or is it just another bubble like the ICO fanatic?
Tone Vays: The only difference between STOs and ICOs is that one of them may be approved by the regulatory authorities, so there won't be so many frauds. However, like ICOs, they will be built on insecure and technically immature centralized platforms that have been funded through ICO in the past. In addition, 98% of the ICO and STO projects I studied were completely useless. I don't think STO or Stabilizing Coins are particularly interesting, and I don't expect another hype bubble like 2017. I hope that people have learned the lesson.
What fraudulent projects do you think are the most blatant in the circle, but are still very popular?
Tone Vays: Perhaps Ripplecoin and its replica Stellar. These currencies are useless and there is no reason to exist. There are also some projects or tokens that use PoW in the first month or two, so that internal staff can collect a large amount of tokens, then switch to PoS or create a master node so that those early participants can get a lot of tokens. TokenPay (PAY), Steemit (STEEM) and Dash (DASH) are all such currencies.
What trends are you interested in in the field of cryptocurrency?
Tone Vays: I am waiting for Bitcoin to separate from other cryptocurrencies. When Bitcoin prices start to rise, currencies such as ETH, Literal (LTC) and Monroe (XMR) will continue to fall or sideways. At that time, I knew that the bear market was over. I am still looking for instability in the legal currency system, such as the bank failure in Greece in 2015, the forcible confiscation of assets in Cyprus in 2013, the banknotes in India in 2017, and the launch of a full-scale war on cash through the 'anti-money laundering' law. The more the government limits people's ability to use cash, the more likely Bitcoin will flourish.
What is your plan for this year?
Tone Vays: I will continue to popularize knowledge about Bitcoin. This is my passion for this field. Of course, I will continue to teach people how to be a better trader, but this is just the way I make a living. I will continue to focus on my youtube channel.