QKL123 market analysis | Buffett cuts his face, the global epidemic slows down, is it good for Bitcoin to halve? (0407)

Summary : Yesterday, the global capital market has soared, Bitcoin is linked, and altcoins have performed strongly. The global epidemic has slowed. If the capital market continues to rebound recently, bitcoin and other crypto assets are expected to come out of a wave of halving expectations.

At 10:30 today, the 8BTCCI broad market index reported 10641.95 points, and the 24-hour increase or decrease was + 9.79%, reflecting the rapid rise of the broader market. The Bitcoin Strength Index reported 93.42 points, with a 24-hour increase or decrease of -5.12%. The relative performance of altcoins in the entire market has become significantly stronger ; ChaiNext USDT OTC Premium Index reported 101.41, with a 24-hour increase or decrease of + 0.14%, USDT The level of external premium increased slightly .

Analyst's point of view:

At the end of February, after the $ 46 "undercut" of Delta Air Lines, Buffett said at the time that he would not sell aviation stocks. However, just over a month later, the company cut some of its aviation stocks (nearly $ 400 million) last week, including Delta Air Lines, which was almost cut. At present, Hathaway holds hundreds of billions of dollars in cash and several thousand dollars in stock. The sale amount is only a small part, and there are nearly 4 billion dollars in aviation stocks in hand. Facing the recent US stock market, the nearly 90-year-old old man lamented seeing him for a long time … After that, is this playing high-selling low-absorption, or panic? Maybe it's waiting for a more appropriate "bottom bargaining" opportunity.

Affected by the favorable expectation of a slowdown in the global epidemic, the capital market has rebounded sharply again yesterday. Today, 55,992 new cases were diagnosed globally, which remained below last week's low for two consecutive days. Although there are signs of improvement, the global epidemic has entered a stage of global pandemic, especially in India and Africa. Judging from the response of the capital market, there is still a large degree of volatility in the market, which is not a sign of stabilization. Moreover, the impact of the epidemic is lagging and is expected to continue to drag on the global economy.

Bitcoin also showed a surge in the capital market, and successfully stood at $ 7,000. Under the continuous release of water by the central banks of various countries, the "currency circle central bank" USDT has not been idle. It has continued to issue nearly 1.7 billion U.S. dollars in the past month, making the market value increase by 35%, ranking fourth in market value. Over the past half a month, the ultra-high USDT off-premium premium has been quickly suppressed, and the bitcoin price has also continued to rise. At present, it is more than a month before Bitcoin's next block reward is halved. The superimposed halving is good for expectations, and the crypto asset market has a high probability of coming out of the market. However, as to where it ends, it has to look at the face of the global capital market in the near future.

1. Spot BTC market

Yesterday afternoon, BTC started to rise rapidly, with a small amount of obvious heavy volume for a short time. It successfully stood at $ 7,000, and the upper space saw a chip concentration area of ​​$ 7,800. At present, the altcoin has a large increase, which is obviously strong relative to Bitcoin, indicating that the market has formed a consistent bullish expectation, and there will be a certain inertia to increase in the future, but it is likely to be callbacked in the near term. It is good to superimpose the expected slowdown of the global epidemic and the expected halving of the Bitcoin block . It is expected that a wave of market conditions will emerge in the near future .

Second, the spot ETH market

After BTC stabilized, ETH appeared to make up the price , and it rose sharply from 140 dollars yesterday afternoon to a daily high of 176 dollars. The highest increase in 24 hours exceeded 25%, and it was accompanied by a significant amount of release. After a short period of resistance, the upper space can be seen near $ 200; the lower $ 140 is strongly supported.

Three, spot BCH market

BCH is expected to usher in the block reward halving tomorrow night, and today linked BTC goes up, but the amount of energy released and the increase rate are not as good as ETH. Linked with BTC for a short time.

Fourth, spot LTC market

LTC quickly rose from $ 40 yesterday to today's high of $ 46. The amount of release can be similar to BCH, and the chip concentration area near $ 50 is seen above. However, the short-term approaching overbought range, there is a certain demand for callback.

Five, spot EOS market

EOS linked ETH quickly went up, but the amount of energy released was not obvious, and short-term linked ETH was the mainstay.

Six, spot ETC market

ETC has recently reached a recent high, but the amount of release is not obvious, and the oversold correction is short-term. The upper pressure sees around $ 6 and the lower supports $ 5.2.

Seven, analyst strategy

1 . Long-term (1-3 years)

Although the long-term trend of BTC is bad, but the price is not far from the bottom, it is a good time to invest in Tuncoin. You can refer to the hoarding currency index . Smart contract platform leader ETH, altcoin leader LTC, DPoS leader EOS, BTC fork currency leader BCH, ETH fork currency leader ETC can be configured on dips.

2 . Midline (January-March)

Affected by the financial environment, it is difficult for the market to get out of the bottom in a short time, and those who do not have a heavy position will intervene in batches .

3 . Short-term (1-3 days)

Overbought range, short-term callback, small positions sell high and sell low.

Appendix: Interpretation of Indicators

1. 8BTCCI broad market index

The 8BTCCI broad market index is composed of the most representative tokens with large scale and good liquidity in the existing blockchain global market to comprehensively reflect the price performance of the entire blockchain token market.

2. Bitcoin Strength Index

The Bitcoin Strength Index (BTCX) reflects the indicators of Bitcoin exchange in the entire Token market, and then reflects the competition strength of Bitcoin in the market. It is used to measure the degree of change in the relative price of Bitcoin to the package of Token. The larger the BTCX index, the stronger the performance of Bitcoin in the Token market.

3. USDT OTC discount premium index

The ChaiNext USDT OTC INDEX is obtained by dividing the USDT / CNY OTC price by the offshore RMB exchange rate and multiplying by 100. When the index is 100, it means USDT parity. If the index is greater than 100, it means USDT premium. If it is less than 100, it means USDT discount.

4. Net capital inflow (outflow)

This indicator reflects the inflow and outflow of funds in the secondary market. By calculating the difference between the inflow and outflow of the global trading platform (excluding false transactions), a positive value indicates a net inflow of funds, and a negative value indicates a net outflow of funds. Among them, the turnover is counted as inflow capital when rising, and the turnover is counted as outflow capital when falling.

5. BTC- coin indicator

The coin hoarding indicator is created by Weibo user ahr999, and assists Bitcoin fixed investment users to make investment decisions in combination with the opportunistic strategy. The indicator consists of the product of two parts. The former is the ratio of the price of Bitcoin to the 200-day fixed investment cost of Bitcoin; the latter is the ratio of the price of Bitcoin to the fitting price of Bitcoin. Generally, when the indicator is lower than 0.45, it is more suitable to increase the investment amount (bottom bargaining), the time interval accounts for about 21%; when the indicator is between 0.45 and 1.2, it is suitable to adopt a fixed investment strategy, the time interval accounts for about 39 %.

Note: Encrypted assets are high-risk assets. This article is for decision-making reference only and does not constitute investment advice.