The European epidemic has begun to slow down, and the Fed has spared no effort to release more stimulus policies to stabilize the "front line". Global stock markets have begun to rebound and rise, and BTC is no exception. As of now, the highest point of BTC today has reached 7453 USD, and the contract is clearly dominated by the bulls, and BCH will be halved tomorrow. ETH has a strong increase. Will the currency market begin to climb in March? We will give the answer below.
Last month, the non-trumpet did a research topic, "BTC / mainstream currency / non-mainstream currency callback amplitude and time relationship". We collected the fluctuation data of these three types of currencies in the big decline market and calculated each During the second callback, some laws of different currencies rose:
1. Occasionally ETH will complete the falling wave before BTC, stop falling and rebound; if ETH stops falling, then the entire downward trend may enter the closing stage.
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2. From the perspective of price, the callback range of BTC should exceed 0.6, the callback range of ETH should exceed 0.95, and the callback range of non-mainstream currencies should exceed 0.9.
Based on these two important conclusions, we can know that ETH has stopped falling, and the rise is close to 20%. If there is no other objective negative news, basically we can be sure that it is now in the rising period.
BTC market trend (16:00 on April 7)
ETH market trend (16:00 on April 7)
Then we use the same measurement method to analyze, whether the rise of ETH is over? How much room for BTC to rebound.
The ups and downs of BTC and ETH
In the last round of decline, on February 13, 2020, BTC stood at a high of $ 10,500, and on March 13, 2020, it plunged to a new low of $ 3,800, with a difference of 6700;
In this rise, the highest point so far is 6453.76, minus the lowest point of the previous wave of 3800, and the difference is 3655.76.
The callback range is the difference between the rising difference and the previous decline, 3653.76 / 6700 = 54.53%. It can be seen that the callback range of BTC has not exceeded 0.6.
If the BTC callback rate will all exceed 0.6, then: 10500 * 0.6 = 7820, that is, if BTC rises to $ 7820, it can be regarded as the end of this round of callbacks . Whether it continues to rise next needs to be judged from the news rather than the technical side Too.
In the same calculation method, on February 15, 2020, the highest point in the last round of ETH was US $ 288.36, and the lowest point was US $ 87 on March 13, 2020, with a decline difference of US $ 201.36;
In this rise, the highest point so far is 176.3 USD, minus the lowest point of the previous wave of 87 USD, and the difference of the increase is 89.3.
The current callback range of ETH is: 89.3 / 201.36 = 44.35%, which is almost half of the 0.95 that the study concluded.
If the ETH callback will reach 0.95, then: 288.36 * 0.95 = 278.29, in this round of callback, ETH will at least rise to 278.29 US dollars before the callback ends.
The callback time of the two currencies is almost the same, but the range of ETH is less than BTC. According to the previous market, ETH will start the upward trend before BTC and will end before BTC. The increase of ETH should also be greater than BTC , So the final conclusion has come out: ETH will continue to rise, BTC still has room to rise.
Although it is concluded that it is still in the rising period according to the research conclusion, there is another reason to be excluded-the rise of BTC / ETH will not complete the callback until the next wave, that is, there will still be a fall again before saving It is possible that the potential rises. Investors are advised to pay attention to the real-time BTC and ETH gains and trends as much as possible, and avoid blind buying or short selling, which is very dangerous.