QKL123 market analysis | BCH computing power switch, BTC computing power soars, what will happen to BSV tomorrow? (0409)

Summary: Bitcoin has adjusted sideways, and altcoins have rebounded. They may continue to adjust in a short time. Last night, BCH was halved, but the computing power dropped significantly. At the same time, the top three mining pools ’share of computing power and unknown computing power increased significantly; tomorrow morning BSV ushered in a halving, but its performance is worse than BCH Halving is accompanied by certain systemic risks.

At 11 o'clock today, the 8BTCCI broad market index reported 10799.48 points, with a 24-hour increase or decrease of + 2.09%, reflecting the market's upward movement. The Bitcoin Strength Index reported at 91.48 points, up and down -0.81% in 24 hours, and the relative performance of altcoins in the entire market has become stronger ; ChaiNext USDT OTC Premium Index reported at 101.28, and the up and down in 24 hours was -0.18%, USDT The OTC premium level dropped slightly .

Analyst's point of view:

More than 8 o'clock last night, BCH ushered in the first halving since the birth of the fork in 2017. Yesterday, the hashrate of the entire BCH network has dropped rapidly from 3.81 EH / s to 2.55 EH / s. Among them, within a short period of time after halving, the computing power of the ant mining pool of BCH's primary mining pool dropped by nearly 35%. Moreover, after halving, in order to ensure the maximum mining revenue, miners constantly switch back and forth between similar mining currencies, resulting in the instability of the entire network's computing power, resulting in a delay of nearly 2 hours in BCH. At present, with the rebalancing of miners' computing power among currencies, the BCH block has been restored to about 10 minutes.

Yesterday, the total computing power of BTC, BCH and BSV was 106.13 EH / s. Today, the total computing power of the three has increased to 111.81 EH / s, a total increase of 5.68 EH / s. In addition to the switching of BCH's computing power to BTC and BSV, BTC's additional network-wide increase in computing power is also very obvious. That is to say, the miners have clearly reacted to the expected halving, and partly started to increase input and output before the BTC halved.

After the successful halving of BCH, some potential problems have become prominent. First, the BCH network-wide computing power is more concentrated in the top three mining pools, which increased rapidly from 88.08% of the computing power of 73.83% yesterday; second, the unknown computing power has soared from 28.3% to 38.9% in the entire network . Although the BCH computing power will be switched back after the BTC is halved, the unknown computing power and the computing power of the top three mining pools increase in a short time, which poses a certain threat to system security. In the long run, it is also a test of community consensus.

It is expected that tomorrow at 8 o'clock, similar scenarios will happen again, and BSV will halve the block reward . Although today (11 o'clock), BSV's overall network computing power (2.92 EH / s) has increased compared with yesterday (2.73 EH / s). However, the computing power of the top three BSV mining pools is as high as 91.62%, and the unknown computing power still reaches 54.9%. From the perspective of computing power, compared with BCH, its system security and community consensus are obviously worse. Whether the fork will bring systemic risks tomorrow is worthy of investors' attention.

1. Spot BTC market

Since yesterday, BTC has fluctuated sideways in the range of $ 7,100 to $ 7,400, and the net outflow of market funds has weakened, and there has been no large outflow of funds. Today, the altcoin is relatively strong, and the market bullish sentiment is still there. After the adjustment, it is more likely to attack $ 7800 .

Second, the spot ETH market

After the ETH began to fall the day before yesterday, the short-term pressure was more obvious. At present, a chip concentration area is formed near $ 170. Today's market funds are still divided, the upward volume can be significantly smaller than the downward volume, and the short-term uncertainty is greater .

Three, spot BCH market

After the rapid rise of BCH yesterday, it quickly hit back around $ 280. It was the main force that hit the iron while the block reward was halved. The follow-up was similar to the market. Judging from the current dip volume, the risk of a short-term drop is greater.

Fourth, spot LTC market

LTC's net outflow of funds yesterday was very obvious. Today, the main flow of funds continues to be bearish, and the volume and amplitude have decreased. It is more likely to dip below the 43 USD support in a short time.

Five, spot EOS market

EOS is also adjusting sideways, with short-term linkage mainly BTC.

Six, spot ETC market

ETC is also adjusting to the recent high shocks, waiting for BTC to choose the direction.

Seven, analyst strategy

1 . Long-term (1-3 years)

Although the long-term trend of BTC is going bad, the good time for TunCoin's fixed investment can be referred to the hoarding currency index . Smart contract platform leader ETH, altcoin leader LTC, DPoS leader EOS, BTC fork currency leader BCH, ETH fork currency leader ETC can be configured on dips.

2 . Midline (January-March)

Affected by the financial environment, it is difficult for the market to get out of the bottom in a short time, and those who do not have a heavy position will intervene in batches . Those with heavy positions can continue to hold and wait for the halving to be favorable.

3 . Short-term (1-3 days)

Sideways adjustment, small positions absorb low and sell high, break through stops.


Appendix: Interpretation of Indicators

1. 8BTCCI broad market index

The 8BTCCI broad market index is composed of the most representative tokens with large scale and good liquidity in the existing blockchain global market to comprehensively reflect the price performance of the entire blockchain token market.

2. Bitcoin Strength Index

The Bitcoin Strength Index (BTCX) reflects the indicators of Bitcoin exchange in the entire Token market, and then reflects the competition strength of Bitcoin in the market. It is used to measure the degree of change in the relative price of Bitcoin to the package of Token. The larger the BTCX index, the stronger the performance of Bitcoin in the Token market.

3. USDT OTC discount premium index

The ChaiNext USDT OTC INDEX is obtained by dividing the USDT / CNY OTC price by the offshore RMB exchange rate and multiplying by 100. When the index is 100, it means USDT parity. If the index is greater than 100, it means USDT premium. If it is less than 100, it means USDT discount.

4. Net capital inflow (outflow)

This indicator reflects the inflow and outflow of funds in the secondary market. By calculating the difference between the inflow and outflow of the global trading platform (excluding false transactions), a positive value indicates a net inflow of funds, and a negative value indicates a net outflow of funds. Among them, the turnover is counted as inflow capital when rising, and the turnover is counted as outflow capital when falling.

5. BTC- coin indicator

The coin hoarding indicator is created by Weibo user ahr999, and assists Bitcoin fixed investment users to make investment decisions in combination with the opportunistic strategy. The indicator consists of the product of two parts. The former is the ratio of the price of Bitcoin to the 200-day fixed investment cost of Bitcoin; the latter is the ratio of the price of Bitcoin to the fitting price of Bitcoin. Generally, when the indicator is lower than 0.45, it is more suitable to increase the investment amount (bottom bargaining), the time interval accounts for about 21%; when the indicator is between 0.45 and 1.2, it is suitable to adopt a fixed investment strategy, the time interval accounts for about 39 %.

Note: Encrypted assets are high-risk assets. This article is for decision-making reference only and does not constitute investment advice.