Analysis | Retail investors are pouring into BTC options contracts, and BTC has a 10% chance of breaking $ 9,000

The Bitcoin derivatives market is currently in a very fruitful period.

After the price of Bitcoin exceeded the $ 7,000 mark on April 6, the impact of this market directly stimulated the growth of the Bitcoin futures and options market.

In fact, there were previous reports that the open position of BTC futures on the Chicago Industry Exchange (CME) has been growing for the past 48 hours, which indicates that investors may be returning to the market.

Now, according to Skew's analysis, it appears that retail investors are also sprinting to buy BTC options contracts.

skew_top_btc_options_volumes_dbt_okx__current_day_-1

Source: Skew

According to the attached chart, in the past 24 hours, 723 BTC option contracts were traded in call options, and 455 contracts expected the Bitcoin price to exceed the $ 9,000 mark by April 24. 268 BTC option contracts aimed at the price will exceed $ 8,000 on April 24. A total of 107 BTC contracts expect Bitcoin to break through the $ 8,000 mark on April 9.

Combined with the above data, the open positions of various retail exchanges on the market have also increased.

skew_total_btc_options_open_interest-1

Source: Skew

The number of open BTC options on the Deribit exchange increased from less than $ 350 million on March 29 to $ 541 million on April 8. This is a steady increase compared to the number of open positions in the past month. After the number of OKEx open positions rose from US $ 23 million to US $ 38 million, OKEx maintained similar growth.

Bitcoin's probability index also shows positive signs, because the index shows that the probability of Bitcoin breaking through $ 8,000 by the end of the month is 24%. In fact, Bitcoin also has a 10% chance of exceeding the $ 9,000 mark.

probab

Source: Skew

However, due to the lack of the same level of activity, the trading volume on each platform shows a frustrating picture. However, it should be noted that this may also mean that investors have slowly returned to the market after getting rid of the stagnation that persisted for most of March.

As the price of Bitcoin begins to consolidate in a higher position, traders may continue to stick to their predictions that they will fall below the spot price.