QKL123 market analysis | The market has fallen, is it unfavorable to halve? (0410)

Summary: This afternoon, the market began to fall and the uncertainty of the short-term was greater. BSV completed the halving after BCH, but the performance of computing power is different from that of BCH, and the unknown computing power is as high as 80%. At present, the computing power of BSV and BCH is unstable, and the security of BSV network is worrying.
QKL123 market analysis | The market fell, halving is unfavorable? (0410) At 11 o'clock, the 8BTCCI broad market index reported 11019.84 points, with a 24-hour increase or decrease of + 2.28%, reflecting the market's upward movement. The Bitcoin Strength Index reported at 91.85 points, + 0.18% in 24 hours. Bitcoin ’s relative performance in the entire market has slightly strengthened ; the ChaiNext USDT OTC Premium Index reported at 101.75, and + 0.46% in 24 hours, USDT The OTC premium level has rebounded .
Analyst's point of view:
At more than eight o'clock in the morning, BSV completed the halving of block rewards, but its overall network computing performance was significantly different from that of BCH before and after halving . At 11:00, BSV's overall network computing power (2.67 EH / s) declined compared to yesterday (2.92 EH / s). Although there was no significant drop in BCH the day before yesterday, it is known that the mining pool's computing power has dropped significantly. Moreover, the unknown computing power of BSV surged from 54.9% yesterday to 87.6%, which made the security of network systems face the threat of unknown computing power. Yesterday, the total network computing power of BTC, BCH and BSV has dropped from 111.81 EH / s to 109.17 EH / s. Among them, today's BCH's known mining pool computing power has significantly improved compared to yesterday, but the network computing power has dropped sharply in the short term, dropping to 1.16 EH / s at 11:00, which may be a manifestation of the instability of the switching between currencies . BTC computing power also decreased slightly, indicating that some miners did not choose to switch computing power, but took the opportunity to withdraw their computing power. It can be said that the computing power of the entire BSV and BCH network is still in an unstable state.

BCH is the product of the split of the BTC community, and BSV is the product of the split of the BCH community. The future vision of the two is different from that of BTC. BCH tends to use block expansion to develop transaction convenience and upper-layer applications; BSV and BCH have a similar vision, but they are more radical on block expansion, and advocate returning to the earlier version of the Bitcoin protocol. When the BCH community split in 2018, the two sides had a computing war. However, after more than a year, the increase in computing power of the two is not obvious. Compared with the increase in the computing power of BTC, it can be said that both defeats are hurt. Today, the two halved ahead of BTC, making the computing power show obvious instability, today's market price has been reflected.

1. Spot BTC market

After BTC's sideways shock, it began to explore the support today, and it is currently starting a small amount of exploration. The net outflow of market funds is obvious. Just hitting the lowest to $ 6,900 after hitting the 10-day moving average, smoothed the gains of the previous few days, which brought greater uncertainty to the subsequent trend. The short-term four-hour RSI is close to oversold, and there is a possibility of a rebound.

Second, the spot ETH market

In the afternoon, ETH began to decline in volume, and it has fallen below the previous day's low of 165 US dollars. Due to the large increase in the previous period, the subsequent risk of falling back is greater, and the lower support of $ 145 is strong. Short-term linkage mainly.

Three, spot BCH market

BCH has continued to fall from as high as US $ 280 the day before, and has now reached the previous shock platform. Judging from the amount of 235 dollars lowered this time, the possibility of a short-term rebound is greater, but there is greater uncertainty in the subsequent trend.

Fourth, spot LTC market

LTC's net outflow of funds has decreased today, the flow of funds is consistently bearish, and the downward volume can increase. It is now near the $ 43 support, and test the support for a short time.

Five, spot EOS market

EOS is looking down for support. As far as the previous gains are concerned, there is still some room for downside at the moment, and the short-term risk is greater.

Six, spot ETC market

ETC linked down and performed similarly to EOS, with strong support near $ 5.3 below a short time.

Seven, analyst strategy

1 . Long-term (1-3 years)

Although the long-term trend of BTC is going bad, the good time for TunCoin's fixed investment can be referred to the hoarding currency index . Smart contract platform leader ETH, altcoin leader LTC, DPoS leader EOS, BTC fork currency leader BCH, ETH fork currency leader ETC can be configured on dips.

2 . Midline (January-March)

Affected by the financial environment, it is difficult for the market to get out of the bottom in a short time, and those who do not have a heavy position will intervene in batches .

3 . Short-term (1-3 days)

Need to stabilize, wait and see.


Appendix: Interpretation of Indicators

1. 8BTCCI broad market index

The 8BTCCI broad market index is composed of the most representative tokens with large scale and good liquidity in the existing blockchain global market to comprehensively reflect the price performance of the entire blockchain token market.

2. Bitcoin Strength Index

The Bitcoin Strength Index (BTCX) reflects the indicators of Bitcoin exchange in the entire Token market, and then reflects the competition strength of Bitcoin in the market. It is used to measure the degree of change in the relative price of Bitcoin to the package of Token. The larger the BTCX index, the stronger the performance of Bitcoin in the Token market.

3. USDT OTC discount premium index

The ChaiNext USDT OTC INDEX is obtained by dividing the USDT / CNY OTC price by the offshore RMB exchange rate and multiplying by 100. When the index is 100, it means USDT parity. If the index is greater than 100, it means USDT premium. If it is less than 100, it means USDT discount.

4. Net capital inflow (outflow)

This indicator reflects the inflow and outflow of funds in the secondary market. By calculating the difference between the inflow and outflow of the global trading platform (excluding false transactions), a positive value indicates a net inflow of funds, and a negative value indicates a net outflow of funds. Among them, the turnover is counted as inflow capital when rising, and the turnover is counted as outflow capital when falling.

5. BTC- coin indicator

The coin hoarding indicator is created by Weibo user ahr999, and assists Bitcoin fixed investment users to make investment decisions in combination with the opportunistic strategy. The indicator consists of the product of two parts. The former is the ratio of the price of Bitcoin to the 200-day fixed investment cost of Bitcoin; the latter is the ratio of the price of Bitcoin to the fitting price of Bitcoin. Generally, when the indicator is lower than 0.45, it is more suitable to increase the investment amount (bottom bargaining), the time interval accounts for about 21%; when the indicator is between 0.45 and 1.2, it is suitable to adopt a fixed investment strategy, the time interval accounts for about 39 %.

Note: Encrypted assets are high-risk assets. This article is for decision-making reference only and does not constitute investment advice.