On the evening of May 4th, Beijing time, the annual Berkshire Hathaway shareholder meeting was held in Omaha, a small town in the central United States. Warren Buffett and his partner Munger attended the event for 6 hours.
Buffett and Bitcoin
Of course, for the investment community, the fried chicken bitcoin, Buffett does not change the position of the past, ridiculous investment in bitcoin is a non-humanized investment, next to the Munger echo: people who invest in bitcoin invite me to participate in happy time, I think it sounds a bit scary.
Buffett then added:
- Bitcoin rose, it turned out that someone silently assisted
- The past and future of Bitcoin: Where are we going?
- Opinion: Bitcoin will eventually become a recognized technology banner
- Bakkt Bitcoin Options and Cash Settlement Bitcoin Futures Officially Launched
- How will the halving of BTC rewards affect miners and currency prices?
- After the bitcoin skyrocketed, the market began to oscillate, and the trader’s heart began to sway.
"The bitcoin speculation has reminded him of the feeling of people gambling in Las Vegas. People know that they might lose money when they are in the world of speculation." Those of you who play bitcoin will not make a lot of money. ”
Last night, I heard Buffett and Charlie Munger sing and say the same thing. Actually, I didn’t feel any surprise. In my mind, only the New York Times columnist Netscape’s founder Mark Anderson once responded to Buffett’s In a word: "Old stubbornness has never been a new technology for new technologies that they don't understand."
In fact, there are indeed many people who make money on Bitcoin. On the contrary, if you listen to Buffett, you will definitely go through the epic level of bitcoin and miss the opportunity of great wealth.
Those who started singing bitcoin in 2012 have missed nearly a hundredfold of their profits, such as the famous Chinese economist Lang Xianping. Why do global investors watch Buffett’s shareholder meeting every year? It’s not just that you can listen to Buffett’s way of making money at the shareholders’ meeting. The cruel thing is that for ordinary investors, it’s meaningless because Buffett’s investment is value investment, and ordinary people are not suitable. You can control it. The funds are not enough to go through a period of several years or even ten years.
Technology stocks frustrated
Interestingly, Buffett, who was once not optimistic about Internet companies, has begun investing in Amazon.
Buffett said: In the last quarter, one of Berkshire's two investment managers bought Amazon, but still adhered to the concept of value investment. He believes that the two investment managers will do more in the future than the number of mistakes. Munger added that he and Buffett are not the most flexible people, and some regret that they did not seize the extreme development of the Internet trend.
The evaluation of Internet companies by Buffett and Charlie Munger was also not good. At one time, Buffett believed that the transformation of technology companies was too fast, the moat had the possibility of being subverted, and it was impossible to ensure a wide enough moat, and the possibility of subversion in the traditional industry was far lower than that of the technology industry.
Facts speak louder than words, traditional industries have been gradually subverted by the technology industry, and many industries have become vassals.
In the past, Buffett’s success has benefited from the historical period, investment experience, knowledge reserve and business understanding. Internet technology has already surpassed the industrial era to subvert the previous rules.
Earlier this year, in "Buffett's Letter to Shareholders", we can see Buffett's remorse for missing technology stocks. Perhaps we can misunderstand it: During 2008, I did some stupid things in investment. I made at least one major mistake in commissioning. When the oil and gas prices approached the peak, I bought a lot of ConocoPhillips stock. I have not predicted the sharp decline in energy prices that occurred in the second half of the year. I still believe that the future price of oil is higher than the current $40-50 per barrel. But so far, I made a fatal mistake. Even if the price of oil rises further, the timing of my purchase has already caused Berkshire Hathaway to pay billions of dollars. ”
At the same time, in the past two years, Berkshire Hathaway has repeatedly hoarded Apple stocks at high tech stocks, and has been quilted many times. Apple stocks have shrunk by up to 1/3, and Buffett suffered a setback.
In 2008, Buffett regretted buying ConocoPhillips stock in the traditional industry. It is he who is good at traditional industries, and he knows that he will return to Apple stocks. Of course, the outlook for Apple stocks is still very large, but the timing of buying is relatively late. It can be said that the existence of technology stocks.
For the Internet technology industry, Buffett has been a strange field for the past ten years. He spent ten years changing his mind.
He has a famous saying that is very popular: "I never invest in industries that I don't understand, and only invest within my ability circle." It has been regarded as a standard by Buffett's pump, but the world's finance is accelerating. For ordinary investors, the industry you are not familiar with is the biggest opportunity for investment. The industry you are not familiar with has to understand the new things that you don't understand. You have to get in touch, and early benefits have a chance.
The world is evolving in an unknown way
Yesterday, many people ignored the news that China's member e-commerce first gathered in the market. What is wrong is that after the whitewashing, the financing was obtained, and the gathering was on the Nasdaq exchange. According to the IPO, the news was gathered last night. On the Nasdaq, the opening price was reported at 13.42 US dollars, 22% higher than the issue price, and the intraday increase reached 65%; the morning closing, the gathering rose 28.64%, the market value reached 3.09 billion US dollars.
The so-called gathering is the mechanism for developing members. It is the micro-business that we despise. It is learned that the personal impact of the gathering is the brainwashing in the cloud cluster. The sales staff has not received formal sales training. The quality of the goods can be imagined, who are those inferior products sold to? I never wanted to understand.
The world is advancing in a way that we are not familiar with, whether you understand it or not, it does not affect the pace of world development. Is gathering a subject worth investing? Obviously not, however, it does not affect the listing of the Nasdaq market.
I have already made a very detailed statement in the article "The Holy Grail of Human Thinking". Human thinking is constantly evolving. From mechanical thinking to energy thinking, to Internet thinking, and finally to blockchain thinking, only thinking is constantly changing. In the process of investment, investment opportunities will continue to emerge. Humans always like to worship authority. They believe in authority, so they have a view on Bitcoin. They can’t understand, look down, buy from buy to buy. The embarrassing situation.
In the farming civilization, human beings can do their own one-a-three-point land, and they can support a family. In the industrial society, human beings have a clear division of labor, which leads to the accumulation of wealth in order to invest; the rise of Internet companies, human beings do not leave home, The scale wins and the growth is rapid; the technology finance is led by bitcoin, the distributed connection, and the wealth is exponentially skyrocketing.
For the investment within the capacity circle, the individual still wants to say one more thing. The ability circle is not fixed. The frontier that continuously expands the ability not only makes the investment opportunity increase, but also the process of personal thinking sublimation.
Buffett, who is known for his frankness, has not rumored that he does not understand Internet technology stocks. Therefore, he has been unmoved for a long time, and he still has a heavy position in the traditional industry, and he is far from the Internet technology stocks.
What is worrying is that not only the moat of the traditional industry has been crushed by the technology industry, but now the moat of the technology industry has never been stable. Among them, Buffett’s investment in the past few years is basically in line with Buffett’s investment principle, broad moat, and sound. The cash flow, not a few years, all the advantages of IBM by the cloud computing without any backhand, the profitability is seriously declining, the market share is eroded.
I personally have no disrespect for Buffett. On the contrary, Buffett’s understanding of investment and humanity is top-notch. It is the goal that all ordinary investors need to learn, but they disagree with his disdain and contempt for new technologies.
If the traditional industry has a large moat, the technology industry is constantly expanding the moat. For the bitcoin and blockchain industries, there is no need for a city, because they are moats and pervasive rivers. The underlying technology will be in the future. The devastating situation infiltrates and reshapes the major industries.
Not only in the technology finance industry, in the long run, the Internet, management, energy, government, medical, copyright protection, Internet of Things, big data, charity and artificial intelligence, blockchain will play an irreplaceable role.
Author: Bitcoin Caesar
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