Analysis: Some Enlightenment from the Reduction of Oil Production to BTC

At 8 o'clock on April 12, Beijing time, the ChaiNext 100 index, which reflects the overall trend of the cryptocurrency market, reported 631.57 points, up 0.61% in the past 24 hours, with a turnover of 65.923 billion U.S. dollars, a decrease of 33.35% from the previous 24 hours. 59 of them rose and 41 fell; the ChaiNext 5 index, which reflects the performance of the blue-chip cryptocurrency market, reported 548.36 points, up 0.53% in the past 24 hours, with a turnover of 52.79 billion US dollars, a decrease of 34.51% from the previous 24 hours; the bitcoin bubble index ( BBI index) reported 76.06 points, up 0.17% in the past 24 hours; USDT OTC Index (USDT OTC Index) reported 103.28 points, down 0.18% in the past 24 hours.

After a nine-hour marathon negotiation the day before yesterday, OPEC finally announced a daily reduction of 10 million barrels of oil. This is the largest production reduction agreement since OPEC was founded. But oil prices have fallen because international institutions believe that demand will fall more than production cuts. BTC is also the price determined by demand. It will be reduced on May 13th. No one can change the time and number of production reductions written in the code. If the demand for BTC is greatly reduced, the currency price will drop like crude oil to regain balance.

We believe that BTC demand mainly includes: application demand (for exchange as an asset medium), investment demand (hoarding believers) and transaction demand (high liquidity and volatility). After halving the above demand is still there, so the price will not return to 0. However, whether the price can rise depends on its own market. The rise in the market will increase the number of believers and the demand for speculation, which will further bring positive feedback to the price. Therefore, if you can come to a slow bull market as soon as possible after halving, it will achieve a multiplier effect.