Only one year after the next halving of Bitcoin, can this "bull-fired fuse" once again lead the BTC price to leap forward?
According to the data of the bitcoinblockhalf website, according to the current block rate, the next half of the bitcoin mining reward is expected to be halved on May 23, 2020, less than 390 days ago.
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Twitter user "planB" recently announced that according to the trend tracking indicator "consistent flow consistency model", bitcoin price is likely to break through the $10,000 mark after halving, and is expected to soar to $100,000 in 2020. Astronomical figures.
What does the stock- flow model mean?
The above graph shows the relationship between the halving of bitcoin mining incentives and the BTC price. From the BTC price trend, it is almost consistent with the macroeconomics stock-flow consistent model trend.
The stock-flow consistent model was developed by Keynesian economic theory, developed by many economists such as Godley, and returned to the mainstream of macroeconomic analysis after the US subprime mortgage crisis in 2007.
It is reported that the model not only examines the physical capital, financial assets and liabilities, but also the flows generated by physical and financial transactions, and examines the interaction between stocks and flows based on the principle of inventory flow consistency.
From the model point of view, BTC prices are on the rise. It is worth noting that halving the supply of Bitcoin is expected to greatly reduce selling pressure, while fewer people who are short-selling may also push BTC prices higher.
However, the reduction in selling pressure does not mean that the buyer's interest is improved. The BTC price rebound caused by the halving of the market may be hindered, and it is possible to quickly enter the overbought condition, resulting in a sharp decline in the BTC price later .
Halve the countdown
According to the pre-set, Bitcoin will experience a halving of mining rewards every four years. The current bitcoin mining award is 12.5 BTC, which will become 6.25 BTC after halving next May.
The halving of block rewards will lead to an increase in mining costs and a halving of production, which will significantly support the BTC price and its intrinsic value.
From historical data, BTC prices tend to rebound after halving a year .
In November 2012, the Bitcoin mining incentive experience was halved for the first time, when the block reward was halved from 50 BTC to 25 BTC. A year later, the BTC price broke through the major mark of $1,000 for the first time in November 2013, setting a record high. In July 2016, the Bitcoin block reward was again halved from 25 BTC to 12.5 BTC. Since then, the BTC price has soared, breaking through the heavy barrier and finally reaching the peak level of US$20,000, opening the 2017 super bull market.
Although the current BTC price has a correction, FXStreet analyst Tanya Abrosimova said that the current downward revision of BTC has not affected its recent gains. The BTC daily line is still running in the rising channel and remains in the middle of the Bollinger Band. Above, so the current downward correction is a normal callback.
Judging from the past record of Bitcoin, the next half of the block reward will surely become another important cornerstone in the history of Bitcoin. Although there is still disagreement about the level at which the BTC price can climb to the highest level after halving, it is certain that the high probability of Bitcoin will reproduce the historical pattern of the plunging of the currency price after halving.
Author: Gu Mengting
Source: Shallot blockchain
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