QKL123 market analysis | New days of global diagnosis? American Oolong! Data those things (0414)

Abstract: The market has rebounded, but there are certain differences, and the short-term uncertainty is large. Today's U.S. epidemic data storm Oolong has not actually seen any significant increase. Due to the lack of supervision, the fraud of data in the circle is more serious, and there seems to be no effective solution at present. At 11 o'clock today, the 8BTCCI broad market index reported 9965.98 points, with a 24-hour increase or decrease of + 2.18%, reflecting a rebound in the broader market. The Bitcoin Strength Index reported at 94.11 points, a 24-hour increase or decrease of + 0.05%, and Bitcoin ’s relative performance in the entire market has slightly strengthened ; ChaiNext USDT OTC Premium Index reported at 102.30, with a 24-hour increase or decrease of -0.76%, USDT The OTC premium level has declined . Analyst's point of view:

This morning, a piece of news that "the cumulative number of confirmed cases in the world exceeded 2 million" was published in major media all over the world. If the news is true, it is likely that the new crown epidemic was found to be pandemic in some regions or countries (India, Africa or Latin America). However, what happened is that the corresponding data shows that the number of new diagnoses in the United States has increased to more than 120,000, which is equivalent to 20% of the total number of previously diagnosed in the United States (560,000)! Is it that the United States has also started clinical diagnosis?

At the time of further verification, around 9 am, the outbreak data of Johns Hopkins University in the United States exploded into Oolong, which turned out to be an error. The updated data shows that today the cumulative number of confirmed cases worldwide is 1.92 million, which has not exceeded expectations. Among them, the number of newly diagnosed in the United States reached 20,000, which was a few thousand fewer than the previous few days.

Now, under the new global battle, the case data is not trivial, which affects the judgment of the global epidemic situation and economic situation. From the end of last year, only a few domestic first-line medical staff learned about "SARS". At that time, after no one expected the "butterfly wings" to fan, the new coronavirus began to break out in the country. The disaster area changed from domestic to Europe, and from Europe to the United States. Eventually evolved into a black swan in the global capital market. Judging from the cases imported from abroad, some countries and regions do not have immediate outbreak data or effective control. Individual countries and regions cannot rule out the possibility of becoming a severely affected area.

When it comes to errors in the data of this epidemic, one can't help but think of the fake data of the currency circle. Various beautiful data are placed on the front end, but some profit-seekers or perpetrators are indeed making up behind them. The types of fake data in the past can be roughly divided into two categories: one is the fraudulent data of a certain currency issuer, and the other is the adulteration of trading volume of the trading platform. In order to create false prosperity, the project party deliberately swiped on-chain transaction data or platform transaction data, many of which were simply harvested for trading. The authenticity of the data on the trading platform has always been tarnished by the industry. Due to the lack of supervision, the trading platform deliberately swipes to obtain bid rankings, especially some small non-compliant trading platforms.

The industry-famous data website CoinMarketCap has a headache due to the trading volume of the trading platform. It has tried its best (exclude some trading volume, adjust rankings, construct new indicators, etc.) to deal with it. It also intended to organize major trading platforms to establish self-discipline, but the current progress unknown. In early April, the CMC website was acquired by Binance for nearly $ 400 million. Although it continues to operate independently, its neutrality may be compromised in the future.

1. Spot BTC market

BTC rebounded slightly after hitting a minimum of $ 6,600. It has now reached the oscillating position of the previous day, and the net inflow of market funds is obvious. Today's bounce seems to be slightly stronger than the previous day's bounce, with greater short-term uncertainty.

Second, the spot ETH market

ETH has also rebounded to the previous day's shock position, and small orders are mostly seen in the flow of funds, and large orders have obvious differences. At present, the top 160 US dollar pending orders are under greater pressure, and there is a greater possibility of short-term extension of the previous day's range shocks.

Three, spot BCH market

The rebound of BCH is relatively small. Although the net flow of capital continued to flow, it did not stand in the range of the previous day's shock, indicating that the market has some differences on the rebound. Linked with BTC for a short time.

Fourth, spot LTC market

LTC and BCH are similar, the downside volume can be more obvious, not standing in the range of the previous day's shock, the volume can tend to shrink, and the bulls' counterattack momentum is not strong. The risk of a short-term fall is greater.

Five, spot EOS market

EOS and LTC are similar. The shrinkage rebounded upwards, and did not stand on the previous day's range. The capital flow was mainly net inflow of small orders. Linked with BTC for a short time.

Six, spot ETC market

ETC stood on the range of the previous day's shock. The flow of funds was mainly based on the inflow of small orders, and the shrinkage rebounded upward. The short-term uncertainty was large.

Seven, analyst strategy

1 . Long-term (1-3 years)

Although the long-term trend of BTC is going bad, the good time for TunCoin's fixed investment can be referred to the hoarding currency index . Smart contract platform leader ETH, altcoin leader LTC, DPoS leader EOS, BTC fork currency leader BCH, ETH fork currency leader ETC can be configured on dips.

2 . Midline (January-March)

Affected by the financial environment, it is difficult for the market to get out of the bottom in a short time, and those who do not have a heavy position will intervene in batches .

3 . Short-term (1-3 days)

There was a rebound and the camera moved.


Appendix: Interpretation of Indicators

1. 8BTCCI broad market index

The 8BTCCI broad market index is composed of the most representative tokens with large scale and good liquidity in the existing blockchain global market to comprehensively reflect the price performance of the entire blockchain token market.

2. Bitcoin Strength Index

The Bitcoin Strength Index (BTCX) reflects the indicators of Bitcoin exchange in the entire Token market, and then reflects the competition strength of Bitcoin in the market. It is used to measure the degree of change in the relative price of Bitcoin to the package of Token. The larger the BTCX index, the stronger the performance of Bitcoin in the Token market.

3. USDT OTC discount premium index

The ChaiNext USDT OTC INDEX is obtained by dividing the USDT / CNY OTC price by the offshore RMB exchange rate and multiplying by 100. When the index is 100, it means USDT parity. If the index is greater than 100, it means USDT premium. If it is less than 100, it means USDT discount.

4. Net capital inflow (outflow)

This indicator reflects the inflow and outflow of funds in the secondary market. By calculating the difference between the inflow and outflow of the global trading platform (excluding false transactions), a positive value indicates a net inflow of funds, and a negative value indicates a net outflow of funds. Among them, the turnover is counted as inflow capital when rising, and the turnover is counted as outflow capital when falling.

5. BTC- coin indicator

The coin hoarding indicator is created by Weibo user ahr999, and assists Bitcoin fixed investment users to make investment decisions in combination with the opportunistic strategy. The indicator consists of the product of two parts. The former is the ratio of the price of Bitcoin to the 200-day fixed investment cost of Bitcoin; the latter is the ratio of the price of Bitcoin to the fitting price of Bitcoin. Generally, when the indicator is lower than 0.45, it is more suitable to increase the investment amount (bottom bargaining), the time interval accounts for about 21%; when the indicator is between 0.45 and 1.2, it is suitable to adopt a fixed investment strategy, the time interval accounts for about 39 %.

Note: Encrypted assets are high-risk assets. This article is for decision-making reference only and does not constitute investment advice.