QKL123 market analysis | The central bank's digital currency (DC / EP) is ready to go out for a long time, and the internal test App is coming (0415)

Summary: US stocks rose sharply, but after bitcoin linkage encountered resistance, market wait-and-see sentiment gradually increased, and short-term uncertainty was greater. New progress has been made in the central bank's digital currency DC / EP. The Agricultural Bank's internal test APP is coming. The "cash version" of digital currency is paid by "touch" with a mobile phone. In the near future, DC / EP will drive the digital economy and may have some indirect impact on encrypted assets.

At 11 o'clock today, the 8BTCCI broad market index reported 10055.27 points, with a 24-hour increase or decrease of + 0.95%, reflecting a rebound in the broader market. The Bitcoin Strength Index reported at 94.05 points, a 24-hour increase or decrease of -0.11%, and the relative performance of altcoins in the entire market slightly increased; the ChaiNext USDT OTC Premium Index reported 101.51, and the 24-hour increase or decrease was -0.80%, USDT The OTC premium level continued to decline .

Analyst's point of view:

Yesterday, an internal beta version of the Agricultural Bank of China's central bank digital currency app was circulated. According to insiders of the Agricultural Bank of China, in addition to the four major banks of Industry, Agriculture, China, and Construction, Ali and Tencent participated in the internal currency digital test of the central bank. Pilots have been launched in Chengdu, Suzhou, Xiong'an and Shenzhen. In fact, in December last year, the internal tests of Shenzhen, Suzhou and other places were started. From the internal beta version exposed this time, there are two main differences from the existing bank APP: one is that the user can exchange the cash in the bank card for the equivalent DC / EP; the other is the touch function, It is likely to be the entry point for offline payment, the embodiment of the "banknote version" of digital currency.

As early as 2014, the central bank started research on the central bank's digital currency (DC / EP) and established a special research group to issue legal digital currency. In 2016, the establishment of a digital currency research institute began to continuously recruit troops to accelerate the research and development of digital currency. In 2017, the central bank's digital currency completed the online deployment of the digital bill platform and digital currency system simulation operating environment as planned, and networked with the pilot bank. In August 2019, Mu Changchun, then deputy director of the Central Bank's Payment and Settlement Department, once said that the central bank's digital currency was "ready to come out", and then became director of the central bank's digital currency research institute. After a while, central bank digital currency became a hot topic outside the industry, but it has nothing to do with cryptocurrency itself. Judging from the current progress, the central bank's digital currency test has reached the final stage, and it is close to the pilot implementation, and Shenzhen is likely to be one of the first batch of pilot cities. Previously, the Central Government issued a document to support Shenzhen in building a pioneering demonstration zone for socialism with Chinese characteristics, including the development of digital currency research and innovative applications of mobile payments.

At present, some central banks in other countries are also promoting their own central bank digital currencies, such as Sweden, Norway and Iran. The main reason for not planning to issue central banks is to worry about the risk of financial system damage, such as South Korea, Germany and New Zealand. The issuance purposes of central banks in different countries are also different: some are mainly to reduce the issuance cost of banknotes or to achieve the purpose of currency digitization, such as China, Uruguay, etc .; some are to bypass US sanctions or get rid of the shackles of the US dollar and issue relatively independent figures Currency, such as Venezuela, Iran, etc .; mainly to increase the central bank's control of the currency, to maintain the stability of the monetary system, such as Sweden, Norway, etc.

Once the central bank's digital currency DC / EP is launched, there is no direct impact on crypto assets such as Bitcoin, but indirect impact can be said to have advantages and disadvantages. One is that there may be competition in the field of payment, but in terms of the current share of encrypted assets in the field of payment, it is not a matter of concern; second, it may promote the development of the digital economy and has a certain leading role at the application level; third is in the second In the high-level market, the "paper currency version" of digital currency will facilitate the expansion of the channel for the entry of transaction funds.

1. Spot BTC market

Yesterday, US stocks rose sharply, BTC went up, but was suppressed at $ 7,000, the volume could tend to shrink, long and short began to stagnate, and the wait-and-see mood gradually increased. The short-term interval is mainly shocked.

Second, the spot ETH market

Yesterday, the amount of ETH could be more obvious. It fell back after reaching the highest of 163 US dollars, and obtained some support at 156 US dollars. There was obvious divergence between the large and small orders of the capital flow, and there was no obvious escape. Big.

Three, spot BCH market

However, BCH has more thorns and less flesh, and its amplitude and volume can shrink extremely. It walks relatively independently, there is no obvious linkage, and the trend is weak. There is a short-term or disc-changing action, and the uncertainty is large .

Fourth, spot LTC market

LTC continues to fluctuate in the range of 40 to 42 US dollars, similar to BCH, the willingness to link up is not strong, the volume can continue to shrink, and the short-term uncertainty is greater.

Five, spot EOS market

The EOS linkage went up slightly, but there was no obvious amount to support it. It is currently standing in the previous shock range. The short-term linkage is mainly due to BTC range shocks.

Six, spot ETC market

Compared with BTC, ETC is relatively strong, but there is no obvious amount to support it. Reminiscent of its title of "doom chariot", it is not appropriate to catch up in a short time.

Seven, analyst strategy

1 . Long-term (1-3 years)

Although the long-term trend of BTC is going bad, the good time for TunCoin's fixed investment can be referred to the hoarding currency index . Smart contract platform leader ETH, altcoin leader LTC, DPoS leader EOS, BTC fork currency leader BCH, ETH fork currency leader ETC can be configured on dips.

2 . Midline (January-March)

Affected by the financial environment, it is difficult for the market to get out of the bottom in a short time, and those who do not have a heavy position will intervene in batches .

3 . Short-term (1-3 days)

Interval turbulence, mainly on the sidelines.


Appendix: Interpretation of Indicators

1. 8BTCCI broad market index

The 8BTCCI broad market index is composed of the most representative tokens with large scale and good liquidity in the existing blockchain global market to comprehensively reflect the price performance of the entire blockchain token market.

2. Bitcoin Strength Index

The Bitcoin Strength Index (BTCX) reflects the indicators of Bitcoin exchange in the entire Token market, and then reflects the competition strength of Bitcoin in the market. It is used to measure the degree of change in the relative price of Bitcoin to the package of Token. The larger the BTCX index, the stronger the performance of Bitcoin in the Token market.

3. USDT OTC discount premium index

The ChaiNext USDT OTC INDEX is obtained by dividing the USDT / CNY OTC price by the offshore RMB exchange rate and multiplying by 100. When the index is 100, it means USDT parity. If the index is greater than 100, it means USDT premium. If it is less than 100, it means USDT discount.

4. Net capital inflow (outflow)

This indicator reflects the inflow and outflow of funds in the secondary market. By calculating the difference between the inflow and outflow of the global trading platform (excluding false transactions), a positive value indicates a net inflow of funds, and a negative value indicates a net outflow of funds. Among them, the turnover is counted as inflow capital when rising, and the turnover is counted as outflow capital when falling.

5. BTC- coin indicator

The coin hoarding indicator is created by Weibo user ahr999, and assists Bitcoin fixed investment users to make investment decisions in combination with the opportunistic strategy. The indicator consists of the product of two parts. The former is the ratio of the price of Bitcoin to the 200-day fixed investment cost of Bitcoin; the latter is the ratio of the price of Bitcoin to the fitting price of Bitcoin. Generally, when the indicator is lower than 0.45, it is more suitable to increase the investment amount (bottom bargaining), the time interval accounts for about 21%; when the indicator is between 0.45 and 1.2, it is suitable to adopt a fixed investment strategy, the time interval accounts for about 39 %.

Note: Encrypted assets are high-risk assets. This article is for decision-making reference only and does not constitute investment advice.