On the first day after the holiday, the global capital market ushered in a storm.
The offshore RMB exchanged against the US dollar in the morning, the decline was as high as 1.3%, the biggest decline since January 2016, falling below the 6.82 mark, which was nearly 900 points lower than the closing in the early morning of May 4. The three major US stock index futures once fell below 2%, and then stabilized, but the decline is still large. The A-share Shanghai Composite Index opened 3.02% lower, closing down 5.58%. The thousand-yuan stocks fell again. The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index opened 2.46% lower and closed at 2.90%.
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The S&P 500VIX futures rose 15.73%, gold and the US dollar rose, the market risk aversion was high, and the market became a key word for market sentiment.
Although the general market has not been saved from falling, the performance of the general market has been stable compared to other markets. Starting in the morning, under the leadership of BTC, the general market all the way down, the total market value of the certificate fell below 180 billion US dollars, and rebounded slightly in the evening. At present, BTC is still struggling around 5,700 dollars.
Although the causal relationship is not so simple, we have previously pointed out in the "Classical Update Reappearance" of the Three Laws and Applications of the BTC Bull and Bear Cycle – One of the Perspectives of Freezing Point, that BTC has already bid farewell to the nature of safe-haven assets and become a risk. Assets, because the price of BTC is increasingly correlated with the VIX index (Chicago Options Exchange Volatility Index). The lower VIX index indicates that investors expect less volatility, indicating investors' optimism about the S&P 500, while the higher VIX indicates higher expected volatility, meaning investors are uncertain about the market outlook. When market volatility declines, investors buy stocks and other types of risky assets. When market volatility rises, investors sell risky assets.
Beginning in December 2017, as the VIX index fell, BTC prices went up, and BTC prices were negatively correlated with the VIX index.
At the beginning of 2018, the VIX index soared and the BTC fell rapidly.
In October 2018, the global market risk aversion trend increased, the VIX index went up, and the BTC price also fell sharply.
The recent rise in the general-acquisition market was mainly driven by the USDT crisis. As the USDT crisis gradually eased, the rising market was already unsustainable, and the bearish news in the news accelerated the pace of market adjustment.
BTC came to a key position again. At present, BTC hit a low of $5,620 and temporarily held $5,600. Recently, we have repeatedly stressed that it is more difficult to continue the upward trend in the short term, prompting attention to the risk of callback. At present, it is necessary to pay attention to whether the $5,600 can form an effective support again. A break below 5600 means the formation of a short-term double-top. Other major circulation certificates are still weakly linked to the BTC.
Focus on key support positions, with a pressure of $5,900 and support at $5,600.
ETH linked BTC, which has continuously fallen below multiple moving averages, and was slightly affected by good news at night, with a pressure of $170 and a support of $155.
EOS is even weaker, with $4.7 support at risk and support at $4.50.
The price of digital pass is fluctuating violently. Investment digital pass is a high-risk investment behavior. Investors should reasonably assess their investment ability and risk tolerance, use leverage carefully, strictly control risks, and invest carefully. Investors are advised to keep in mind that investments are risky and require caution when entering the market.
Personal opinions are for reference only. The analysis in the text does not constitute a recommendation for trading, and the profit and loss is self-sufficient. Welcome to reprint, but need to indicate the source.