Token2049 – Post-disaster reconstruction of industry credit and some real variables

Token2049 - Post-disaster reconstruction

Author: Will Wang; Source: Author’s Twitter @willwangtf

After reading many people’s 2049 essays, I deeply feel a mixture of desire, despair, and delusion emanating from them. Some people are longing for the so-called bull market next year, and this longing seems to have been brewing since the moment the bear market arrived, as if doing nothing naturally follows the cycle. Some people are filled with despair due to the lack of narrative and direction, but they dare not express it openly. In the end, they must also expound on some half-hearted delusions of track and opportunity predictions that are seemingly true but actually false, just to make staying in such expensive hotels and socializing there every day not meaningless. Finally, they take photos with some famous figures in the crypto world and post them on their social media to fulfill their obligations.

Many practitioners may not realize or do not want to realize that this industry has already lost the most basic trust in the past few years. This is a self-destructive attack like pulling the rug out from under oneself, which means that there will be no real increment coming in, only the existing practitioners indulging in their own fantasies. This trust includes the basic trust between investors and entrepreneurs that this industry originally built up during the era of mobile internet, as well as the basic operating mechanisms of companies under the shareholder board system and the results of the continuous strengthening of regulation by the traditional financial system over the past century. These basic trusts have been taken for granted and then destroyed in this industry, and finally everyone woke up without long-termism.

So now is the time for post-disaster reconstruction, a moment to return to Satoshi Nakamoto’s original doctrine of getting rid of trusted third parties. Instead of expecting a bull market, it is better to cheer for any progress and advancements that can help rebuild the credibility of this industry. So, does it exist? Let’s count together and see which builders have made outstanding contributions to reaffirming the necessity and credibility of this industry in the fields of technology and finance. I want to take a photo with these builders.

Finally, let’s talk about some changes, or at least variables, that are truly worth observing besides intent, tg bots, and fts:

First, are institutions entering the market? Whether it is stablecoins on the funding side, like LianGuaiyLianGuail, or edxm on the exchange side, or ETF applications on the asset funding side, etc. One of my observations is that the so-called Bitcoin halving cycle in this industry is a small cycle, and the real big cycle has only experienced one, which is the first cycle from the birth of the industry to the present. I call it the “retail investors’ cycle of USD quantitative easing”. This retail market is very similar to China’s A-shares, except that Binance is an all-in-one entity combining the roles of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, a stock exchange, an investment bank, and a commercial bank. It is worth paying attention to whether the industry can evolve into a larger market with a higher proportion of institutions. My definition of institutions entering the market is not about institutions throwing money around or some consumer retail giants dabbling in NFTs. What I care about is when buying digital assets can appear in your HSBC APP or various banking and securities trading interfaces with the best UI. This is the first step. Let’s see if the next decade will be the “institutional cycle in the era of tight monetary policy”.

Second, is the spread narrowing? Whether it is the efforts of US Treasury RWA or the tokenization of various assets, regardless of the underlying logic that needs to be considered, why do users need to buy off-chain assets on-chain, practitioners are trying various methods to reduce the spread inside and outside the pool; of course, I have always been calling for one thing, that is, this industry lacks a basic financial infrastructure similar to “Yu’ebao”. If ETH is a risk-free return in terms of currency, but the annual income of billions of dollars is not enough to support a huge financial market, is there a chance to at least create a U-based “Yu’ebao”? Otherwise, even if wallets try to get more people to use them, and onramps try to get more people to enter, in the end, if the money is left here, won’t it still be bullied by inflation? So people are forced to gamble, and users won’t mass adopt, it’s just a plate for about 100 million global gambling enthusiasts on Binance.

Third, is trust being rebuilt? This world is contradictory. The premise of building a trustless network is that people are willing to invest resources to trust this matter. Of course, this industry is also wonderful. The early investment of these resources comes from both believers and nurtures gamblers. This industry is also brave. Making the ledger public means that every network attack and hacker theft is exposed to public opinion, while centralized banks may only need to modify the data, but this industry needs to constantly repair in front of everyone’s eyes. I have been trying to find clues to rebuild trust in this industry through conversations with founders of new projects. Is it based on a project, an event, or the support of peers? Who is rebuilding trust, or whose actions contribute to rebuilding trust?

I have used question marks for the above three propositions because I really don’t know if they will work, but they are really important. I look forward to your criticisms and discussions.

Of course, I am just looking at it from the perspective of a primary market investor, not representing the perspectives of secondary market investors or the perspectives of various brothers who are good at speculating. I often tell other fund partners that you are all too smart and capable, and can we try to pursue a bit of long-termism in this industry with a trustless mindset (although the current locking methods and liquidity basically make many funds can only compete for speed)? So we insist on only being the lead investor in the first and second rounds, and push ourselves to focus on the core propositions that are crucial to the industry’s development (efficiency, security, developer-friendly), and continue to call for more infrastructure investment rather than the opposite, even though many people are tired of the topic of infrastructure.

In the past few days, I read the biography of Elon Musk. This is the most empowering book I have read in years. I just realized that sLianGuaicex is a 20-year-old company. In 2003, I was still in high school. But the progress and development of sLianGuaicex always feel refreshing rather than old. Musk’s use of the “idiot index” when dealing with construction costs impressed me. If the price of something is 10 times or n times the physical raw material, it means that the “idiot index” is high enough and there is room for change. So if we use the same method to look at the global financial industry, can we discover something new? (VISA? Western Union? Insert black person questioning face emoji)

So if you want to write a short essay after reading the short essay, here is a paragraph: Let’s push ourselves and see if we are really doing something great. In fact, there is already very little space left for insignificant things. Don’t struggle in vain, have the courage to attack the real challenges.

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