Let me talk about what happened to Caesar himself recently. In April, when I saw the trend of kcash's currency price, I found that there were indicators of immortal guidance. Although many currencies have indicators of immortal guidance, the idea at that time was that the price of the currency rebounded, and the main force received enough chips at the bottom. As long as the market improves, the price of kcash is rising sooner or later.
You know, when Kcash privately raised in 2017, Li Xiaolai claimed to be a private player. Most of the chips are in his hands. However, under the influence of the bull market in 2018, the price of the currency has dropped by nearly 99%. The huge decline is not It affects my speculation because I know that not all speculations are worthless.
In April, I made two large bands, and the revenue was about 60%. Time came to early May, due to the impact of the USDT thunderstorm, Caesar was on the sidelines of the market: choose short positions. However, I remember kcash, buy orders at the price of 0.08RMB. Due to the low volume, there is no single transaction. In recent days, kcash has been shouted by a CX organization. The price has skyrocketed. In just three days, there are actually 5 times the increase.
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I stepped on the air, my mind was a bit broken, after all, it was my chance, I missed it in vain, and I was depressed all day.
However, Caesar is still open in the heart. In the trading market, it is normal to go through the process of trading in the vacant and quilt. The most important thing is to maintain the mentality. We earn money for the big cycle. The psychology of speculation sometimes happens. Allowing you to make small money in a short time does not guarantee you to make big money.
We will often face the K-line chart, imagine buying at the lowest price, selling at the highest point, and completing a perfect trading operation. The investment is the four characters of "low buy and sell high". The simplest thing is that the operational psychology will fluctuate with the fluctuation of the market. Suppose I buy kcash at the price of 0.08. Because it is just speculative, I definitely take it. Less than 5 times the profit.
The low-buy and high-selling imagination is simple, but the actual operation is not simple.
The bull market also has waves
The so-called low-buy and high-selling is to choose the right time to buy and sell. In general, our imaginary trend in the bull market and bear market in the currency market is linear thinking. It is generally believed that the bull market is rising all the way, the club is tender. Model; bear market is the price all the way down, moving bricks to work.
As long as the investors who have experienced the bulls and bears, I understand that in fact, the above feeling is wrong.
In 2017, investors are now talking about the biggest bull market in the history of the currency market. In fact, the twists and turns in the process are very large.
For example, in February 2017, the central bank banned the Bitcoin exchange from accessing the currency. The market was in a panic. At that time, some people even thought that the rebound since 2016 had ended. It is necessary to enter the bear market again. The reality is that ico is hot. Projects such as Quantum Chain and Gongxinbao skyrocketed after going online in May. For example, in July 2017, the impact of bitcoin forks fell for a whole month. At that time, the currency broke out and was questioned by countless people.
In the end, the most lethal 94 catastrophe, the people in their eyes were confused, afraid of helplessness, and all the coins in their hands were sold in fear. Later, everyone knew that Bitcoin broke through $20,000 and the altcoin flies.
You see, in 2017, the big bull market experienced three big waves in the whole year. It is not what people think is rising all the time. In the depths of human nature, they often only want to remember good things. For painful things, they will choose Sexuality is ignored.
When do you buy it? When is it sold? It's a tough question. If you follow the current thinking, you might say that it won't be tossed. Long-term holding, value investment, is very correct. Caesar spent the 20-year-old bear market with this thinking, and it has been falling and losing a lot. You see that the same thinking is very different in different time periods.
Let's say that big institutions don't have a good grasp of the timing and how it is fallen.
In the past ten years, when we mentioned that the stock gods will think of Buffett for the first time, the shareholder meeting of Berkshire Hathaway a few days ago, the attention of thousands of people, can be seen in the leopard, Buffett's influence. But before the 1980s, the most dazzling star in the entire investment community was not only Buffett, but also Robertson, known as the "father of the hedge fund."
His management is the once famous tiger fund. In the early days of tiger management, the traditional stock selection was the investment strategy. In the mid and late 1980s, with the financial innovation and the introduction of more and more financial derivatives, tiger management is increasingly deviating from the tradition. The fund management strategy to establish a portfolio of derivatives including government bonds, currencies, stock markets, interest rates and related option futures has become a typical "macro" hedge fund.
Tiger Management has maintained a brilliant performance. From 1980 to August 1998 before the investment failure, the annual return on investment was 32%, which is to account for 18 months of investment failure, and its annual growth rate is as high as 25%. Is one of the best performing hedge funds.
In May 1980, Robertson and his partners set up the Tiger Fund with a capital of $8.8 million. After nearly 20 years of development, the US$8.8 million in that year has grown to US$21 billion, an increase of over 29000%. Throughout the period, fund holders receive an annual return of up to 32% after deducting all fees.
What is the concept of 20% annual income in 20 years? We must understand that the annual income of Warren Buffett is about 23%. In recent years, the decline has been more. The reputation of Tiger Fund can be imagined at that time.
The financial market has changed dramatically. The financial market has been blowing up the technology bubble since 1998. At that time, the most popular Internet stocks. But at the time, Internet companies didn't have a profit, and most of them were gimmicks. By relying on the concept of speculation, the stock price could be doubled. With the current currency circle is probably a level, dedicated to the concept of hype, and the liar is rampant.
In a frenetic environment, rational Robertson clearly believes that the bubble in the market is too big.
The Tiger Fund chose to start shorting technology stocks. In a frenzied market, it is undoubtedly a contrarian to be the car. It can be said that the entire market has been occupied by irrationality, no matter how bad the stocks are soaring.
Not only that, Tiger Management began to pursue the "new economy" shares that had already passed the trend in the fourth quarter of 1999. It has absorbed Intel and Dell computers, and took over the high-end delivery of "fire", resulting in "high buy and low sell". Lose another in the technology stocks.
Due to repeated mistakes in stock market investment decisions, Tiger Managed Assets fell 19% in 1999. As of the end of February 2000, it fell another 13%. In addition, investors have redeemed their capital. Since September 1998, the asset value of Tiger Management has been It has plunged $16 billion. Due to the serious losses, the assets managed by Tigers have been unable to provide sufficient commissions and profit sharing to cover operating expenses and employee compensation.
By the end of February 2000, the Tiger Fund had fallen into disappointment. As the fund falls, investors are desperately divesting. As a result, in just over a year, the assets managed by Tiger Funds plunged from the peak of $23 billion to $6.5 billion. By March, Robertson couldn’t help himself and decided to close the fund.
The most embarrassing thing is that the Tiger Fund was officially closed on March 30, 2000. The Nasdaq index has just hit a record high 20 days ago. After only one week, the whole market began to mad, falling 15% in one month and nearly 80% in the next two years. You can say that you can make people, if the Tiger Fund is short-selling technology for two years. Stocks, who are now standing on the altar of the stock are absolutely his.
Take advantage of the trend
The failure of Robert and the Tiger Fund illustrates how crucial a buying and selling opportunity is. If the investor does not have the time to invest, the loss can be expected. The following leads to the concept of the cycle, in the previous article. I have talked about the emotional cycle. If you have time, you can go and see. The general meaning is that we have to pull the investment time into a short-term trend. In the long run, the trend is definitely rising. The bear market does not open a position, and the bull market is tearful.
Robertson, 67, who was 67 years old in 2000, said in an interview with the reporter: "I will not surrender, and I will not stop investing." He still believes his investment strategy is correct, and believes that the current technology, Internet and telecom stocks frenzy will one day collapse.
Hedge fund analyst Barry Colvin commented:
"There is a saying that don't fight against the market, Robertson did, and he lost."
Robertson’s failure has already explained that even if he short-sells technology stocks and wins for a short time, it does not affect the soaring tech stocks. Internet giants such as Google and Amazon have confronted market trends and often only failed. The end.
Similarly, in the cryptocurrency market, buying low and selling is not a very good strategy, because you will eventually have a quilt and a day of emptiness, you can short short, but can't always be short, although I said short and long. The logic is the same, but not everyone understands that in the bear market thinking, when the bull market quietly arrives, continuing to desperately short will become the soul of the market.
We only need to understand that the encryption market is the underlying logic that is constantly rising. We will continue to hold the investment. When the price has reached a safe distance from your cost price, you have the confidence to sell or continue to hold.
Author: Bitcoin Caesar