Every meeting will be "outbreak"! BTC's 20% surge in a week is just a warm-up?

After showing the same logic for four consecutive years, don't you believe that history will repeat itself?

When the BTC fell after the Consensus Conference last year and the "every meeting will rise", the more objective "conference market" logic surfaced!

Consensus 2019 will be officially held on May 13-15, local time in the United States. Since its inception in 2015, the New York Consensus Conference has attracted almost all major companies, developers, investors, and experts from the world of encrypted cryptocurrency and blockchain to discuss the future of the industry, so this annual event has been seen An important weather vane event for the cryptocurrency market.

However, among the participants in this consensus meeting, the most concerned supervisory level participants in the market are very limited. Therefore, from the current agenda, it is very unlikely that explosive news will be triggered during the consensus meeting . Therefore, investors simply do not have to pay too much attention to the potential impact of the news itself on the market. While the Consensus Conference provides a technical level orientation for the blockchain world, the impact on the market is more reflected in the more subjective factors such as “market sentiment” and “funding direction”.

Therefore, the historical performance of the market before and after the four New York Consensus Conferences in 2015-2018 will undoubtedly become the most necessary preparatory work before the official opening of this conference. Scallions exclusively organize the historical performance of BTC/USD before and after the four New York Consensus Conferences on the Coinbase Exchange. See the chart below.

As shown in the above figure, in the warm-up before the official opening of each consensus conference and during the conference, there will be a big increase in the probability of the market. As an annual event in the blockchain world, the market’s pre-heating hype will often This period of time attracts external funds into the market, which in turn drives the market to strengthen.

After the end of the first three consensus conferences, the BTC prices have gone out of considerable growth. In the end of the 2015 and 2016 consensus conferences, the BTC prices have achieved a strong double of almost double the price in less than two months. The performance of BTC in the second half of 2017 is not to be overstated. Although the BTC price increase in the time period marked in the above chart seems to be less than the performance of the previous two years, the trend of BTC soaring from less than 2,000 US dollars to 19,000 US dollars in the second half of 2017 remains. The calendar is in sight, and the 2017 Consensus Conference happens to be an opportunity for the price to pass the $2,000 mark.

However, in the bear market of the whole year last year, the New York Consensus Conference failed to continue its "magic power." Although BTC once out of a rebound performance of 8% during the warm-up period, the subsequent market did not reverse the decline, and BTC prices continued to fall for more than a month after the meeting.

Therefore, in terms of market history performance, although the New York Consensus Conference does have a certain impact on the digital currency market, the conclusion that "the meeting will inevitably push the BTC to rise" is not objective. As far as the historical market performance is concerned, the consensus conference seems to be more like a “relay node” that has been further strengthened after the trend of the first half of the year has been consolidated. Although it has not achieved all the rise in the past four years, the market has gone out without exception. The performance of the trend in the first half of the year was postponed.

It can be seen that under the current situation that BTC has achieved a sharp rise in the recent period, the potential for BTC to accelerate the rise is still very worth looking forward to. Since the beginning of this year, the price of BTC has risen by more than 100%. In the first half of the year, the market performance was “like the extreme” in 2017. If the New York Consensus Conference can really become an effective relay node, the rising potential of BTC will be in the second half of the year. Really broke out.

Shallot Note: The US local time this Monday to Wednesday (May 13-15), the annual New York Consensus Conference (Consensus 2019) will be reopened, participants can listen to emerging technology experts and traditional financial institutions Intensive discussions on the future of digital payments will also see emerging companies preaching their business plans.

The theme of this year's Consensus 2019 conference is: business, market and technology. Its main topics are: token distribution, blockchain games, corporate alliance chains, decentralized finance, blockchain governance, blockchain applications, and more. The conference invited well-known companies including Coinbase, Coinsafe, Firecoin, OKEx, etc.; traditional large enterprises such as IBM, Microsoft, Deloitte, JP Morgan Chase, Nasdaq Exchange; and a series of project participants, within three days There will be more than 210 meetings in parallel.

Author: Yu Wen Shuai

Source: Shallot blockchain