Bitcoin rose above $8,000: the incentive for this bull market is not in the circle, but outside the circle

Bitcoin rose above $8,000: the incentive for this bull market is not in the circle, but outside the circle

I don't know if Nakamoto was aware of the situation today, 10 years ago, but thank him for his valuable gift. I firmly believe that Bitcoin will surely become a highlight in the world's financial history. Let us remember the sentence that Nakamoto stayed in the creation block: "On January 3, 2009, it was the time when the Chancellor of the Exchequer was about to implement the second round of bank emergency assistance."

Bitcoin broke through $8,000 today. From last night to this morning, almost all of the friends in the blockchain field opened the exclamation mode in the circle of friends. The WeChat group, which had been quiet for a long time, began to have a tsunami-like discussion. Still in this circle, if you hold more bitcoin in your hand, you will be more eager to see more; if the middle is empty or get off too early, then full of doubts, this round of bull market is over. As for those who are not in the circle, it is a bit of a virtual currency that is worthless. It is a comparison of the stock market's decline and the rise of Bitcoin. The shape is so vast that I have barely seen it since 2017.

Why did Bitcoin suddenly skyrocket? This is a problem. It is not only the retail investors who are speculating in the currency, but also the projects that are deeply involved in technology research in this industry. And the deeper the research, the more I feel confused, I feel too late. Because in their view, the technology in this circle has not achieved any qualitative breakthrough. Therefore, the banker's theory of pulling the market and manipulating the market to cut the vegetables began to spread widely underneath. The amaranths who tasted the sweetness of the altcoin in 17 years began to make a fuss. They thought that the bitcoin pulled them up in the same round, but the altcoin did not rise much, and it was not too late. What's more, I started to look forward to a hundred times and a thousand times. But I have to say that if they really go bankrupt to lay out these altcoins, this year they are afraid that they will not sleep well.

The rise in bitcoin can be divided into two phases. One is the rise before May, rising from $3,150 to $5,000, which we can think of as a value fix. However, the explosive pull-up after May, especially the breakthrough of the $ 8,000 mark, we think that the value of repair, it is out of place. Because the $8,000 is a lot of points in the last round of bull market, bitcoin pulled to $8,000, which means they got rid of it. If it is out at this time, the previous losses can be recovered. Therefore, the difficulty of breaking through this point is relatively large in the past. Some people think that this is the collective pull of the dealers, but the pull has pulled over 8,000 US dollars, the dealer is too bold, the amount of money required to pull the disk and the risk of maturity is too great.

We can also see that bitcoin has risen from $5,000 to $8,000 since May, while Ethereum has only risen from $160 to $200. The former rose by 60%, while the latter rose by 25%. EOS rose from 4.65 US dollars to 5.8 US dollars, an increase of about 25%. But as a mainstream currency, the market value of Ethereum and EOS is about 15% of Bitcoin and less than 4% of Bitcoin. If it is a dealer who pulls the plate, the small plate is not as good as the big plate, which is puzzling.

Bitcoin’s crazy rise after May, if you really want to find a reason, should be attributed to geopolitical factors. The Sino-US trade war is the first geopolitical factor, and it will not be discussed here. There has been a calculation inside the carbon chain value. We took data on oil, gold, US stocks, yen and bitcoin from 2013 to 2018 from Bloomberg and Coinmarketcap, and measured the correlation between them. We found that the relationship between Bitcoin and US stocks is not significant. There is even a subtle negative correlation with the relationship with gold.

Yesterday BMAN sent an article saying that the risk aversion of Bitcoin has surpassed gold. I think it is wrong. Overall, Bitcoin presents two features, it is a venture capital for peacetime, and it is also a safe haven for the turbulent times. In the era of peace, the decline in US stocks and the fall in bitcoin were even accompanied by the fact that Bitcoin could not function as a safe haven; in the era of international political turmoil, as a tool for non-sovereign value storage, Bitcoin was capitalized like gold. The pursuit. And because Bitcoin is more convenient to transfer assets, its chasing degree may be more than gold. Coupled with the small market value of Bitcoin, geopolitical crises often cause bitcoin to rise more than gold.

Here I want to clarify one thing: We are now talking about digital currency and digital currency. In fact, there is only one real digital currency, that is, bitcoin. The other digital currencies are just the title with the word "currency" and no consensus on the "currency". At one time, Ethereum also had the opportunity to have this consensus. For example, when the crisis of the Korean-Chinese crisis in 17 years coincided with the rise of ICO, Ethereum immediately received the support and support of the Korean delegation, which rose far beyond Bitcoin and was safe to see. A spot. However, in the current situation, the consensus of Ethereum on the storage of currency or non-sovereign value has fallen far behind Bitcoin. Other mainstream currencies such as EOS need not be said, let alone other altcoins.

The Matthew effect of money is very obvious. Projects are often obsessed with the pursuit of technology, and that technological breakthroughs can bring real value to the circle. For example, Grin and Beam, they are also determined to make electronic cash, and they are more private and faster. But even a project like "Grypoke," which is full of "password punk" tastes, is indeed technologically advanced, and is popular with Bitcoin's original group of technologies, has become obscure under the strong currency consensus of Bitcoin. . As a nameless person, it is very difficult to launch an attack on a currency with broad consensus. This is not a technological advancement. Even more frightening is that time will add to the currency credit of Bitcoin. In the 10 years since the birth of Bitcoin, the cryptocurrency has experienced ups and downs. Only Bitcoin has experienced vicissitudes and is the biggest consensus of all the currency people. This kind of digital currency is especially valuable. As long as it does not make subversive mistakes, its status is difficult to shake.

What I still want to say is that as an ordinary person, we often cannot predict when the bull market will come and in what form. The currency circle pursues an unwritten rule that slashes bitcoin by half. I personally don't like this statement. One is that from the perspective of economics, the halving of bitcoin is expected. Since this matter is known to us in advance, it should be reflected in the price at the time, and it is reasonable to say that it should not cause price spikes. On the other hand, if the bitcoin surge in 2013 was due to halving, it is especially believed that the halving has had a big impact on the supply of bitcoin. But today, more than 80% of Bitcoin has been dug up, even if bitcoin is halved, the impact is only 20% of the remaining supply. According to this logic, as time goes by, the effect of halving bitcoin on its price should not be magnified, but should be reduced.

In the last round of bull market, the halving of bitcoin and the outbreak of ERC-20 tokens were accompanied. That bull market is likely to be triggered by factors in technology and business model innovation. So in this round, many people are guessing, will it be a new model, such as IEO; will it be a new technology, such as lightning network, cross-chain, sharding and so on. This is also the theme of the bear market to discuss and support everyone to spend the winter. But if history can be guessed, everyone in the circle should be a billionaire. Is there a possibility that we have discussed so many internal innovations in the bear market that they have not played a key role in this round; instead, the changes in the external environment have caused the cryptocurrency position to rise suddenly? That is, the induction of this big bull market is not in the circle, but outside the circle?

This is not an audacious idea. I have consulted a lot of exchanges and mines. They all agree that it is impossible for the old people to play in the circle. If the next round of bull market is really coming, there must be a large number of new users and new funds to enter. Their previous ideas were to do compliance, standardize and standardize the industry. In addition, the entry of mainstream giants such as Facebook let everyone see the hope of bringing huge new users. But in the great changes in international politics, these actions are like the fire of the fire, the moon than the sky. Is it possible that the dramatic changes in history have caused the cryptocurrency to suddenly accelerate, and in this situation, the user has been pushed in for the next round of bull market?

Thinking about this issue in the current situation today can not help but make people think. Satoshi Nakamoto once figured out the relationship with WikiLeaks because he was afraid that the young bitcoin would be targeted by the US government. This year's bitcoin is only ten years old and naturally younger than ancient gold. But the wheels of the safe haven have already started. This new network of new species has received widespread attention, and it will face this level of geopolitical conflict for the first time since its birth. As for what role it will play in this conflict, what story is left in this magnificent grand history is really exciting.

I don't know if Nakamoto was aware of the situation today, 10 years ago, but thank him for his valuable gift. I firmly believe that Bitcoin will surely become a highlight in the world's financial history. Let us remember the sentence that Nakamoto stayed in the creation block: "On January 3, 2009, it was the time when the Chancellor of the Exchequer was about to implement the second round of bank emergency assistance."

Source: Carbon chain value