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In the face of sudden surges, there are still people who can't figure out what they are saying, saying that “the recent market is a bit fascinating.”
In fact, at least three major events occurred last night, which played a certain catalytic role in the rise of Bitcoin.
In chronological order, they are:
1) At about 8 pm Beijing time on the 13th, China officially took countermeasures against the trade war;
2) At 8:30 pm on the 13th, the 2019 Consensus Conference was officially held;
3) Around 10 pm on the 13th, Bakkt announced that the news of testing the BTC futures contract began in July.
(Data from QKL123)
The above three messages correspond to three keywords: risk avoidance, consensus, and expectation.
In ancient times, the saying “buy gold in the chaos and preserve the antiques in the world” means that in the war years, people tend to exchange their assets for gold to preserve and increase their value. In peacetime, people tend to convert assets into antiques to preserve their value. .
This concept has long been deeply rooted in the hearts of the people.
It was not until the financial crisis of 2008 that an encrypted digital currency called Bitcoin came into being, and this concept began to change subtly. Due to the increasing difficulty of production over time, Bitcoin is limited in total supply, and the issue is not controlled by any single-government government. It is promoted as digital gold and is regarded by some investors as a “safe haven asset”.
In fact, in some countries and even major political events in the world, Bitcoin does show the attributes of safe-haven assets.
In April 2013, the “Cyprus Incident” broke out, and Bitcoin soared from more than 30 US dollars to 265 US dollars in just a few days. In June 2016, the UK successfully voted for “Brexit” news, and the price of bitcoin instantly rose from around $550 to $650.
"The rise and disintegration of the entire bubble, and the tension and easing of geopolitics are resonant," Bitcoin senior investor Night Cat (net name btcnightcat) said in an interview with Babbitt in 2018.
Another senior digital currency enthusiast, Zeng Linyi, also expressed the same view. "Through this incident (Babat Note: Cyprus incident), we can see that it is more and more convinced that bitcoin can be a global asset hedging. And hedging, similar to the dollar and gold."
However, the safe-haven nature of Bitcoin is not a trial and error.
On October 10, 2018, the three major US stock indexes plummeted. The Dow Jones index fell 831.83 points, the third biggest drop in history. The S&P 500 index fell 3.29% a day, and the Nasdaq index fell 4.08% for the full day since June 2016.
The next day, the Asia-Pacific stock market plunged along with US stocks, and the scene was very "strong." However, in this global stock market crash, Bitcoin's hedging function is not only well reflected, but also a large diving in the morning.
The annual New York Consensus Conference is seen as an important weathervane event in the cryptocurrency market.
Since its inception in 2015, the New York Consensus Conference has attracted almost all major companies, developers, investors, and experts from the world of encrypted cryptocurrency and blockchain to discuss the future of the industry.
According to the historical performance of the BTC/USD before and after the four New York Consensus Conferences on the Coinbase Exchange in 2015-2018, there were three rises and one decline after the previous conferences.
That is: the probability of rise is 75%. Expectation = Probability X odds, smart investors should know how to bet.
Bitcoin bull market 2
At the end of 2013, Bitcoin hit a record high of $1,000 and began to decline all the way down. In January 2015, it fell to a minimum of less than $200.
Looking at the historical trend of bitcoin prices, we can find that the first two rises are just in the "bear to cow" channel. During the first conference, bitcoin prices were around $240; during the second conference, bitcoin prices rebounded to around $450.
Bitcoin New York Consensus Convention 1
During the third meeting, during the start-up phase of the Bitcoin bull market, Bitcoin prices hit a record high of $2,000 during the period.
The fourth and only current decline occurred during the May 2018 period, just during the bitcoin bear market downtrend channel. At the end of 2017, Bitcoin hit a bear after hitting a new high of $20,000. On the day of the conference, the price of Bitcoin hovered around $8,000.
Bitcoin New York Consensus Conference 2
At the 5th New York Consensus Conference in 2019, Bitcoin prices stood at $8,000 again. (Babbit)