First, have you determined that the bull market is coming?
Already come, no nonsense, in fact, since the beginning of March, the beginning of the beginning of the cattle, did not come is only the expected callback. The focus now is to analyze how this bull market came from? Many people have said that it is definitely an increase in large funds coming in, yes, but the key is where the big money? Why come in?
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Is it fund driven by the market?
Looking back at the rise of various currencies at the beginning of the year, there are three characteristics. First, most of the currencies are up two or three times and will not rise. The sector is rotating and there is no continuous hot spot. Second, there is basically no increase in the mainstream currency of the big market capitalization. Third, the speculation is centered on the exchange, and it is common to do Zhuang mode.
The above three characteristics are very typical of the hot money behavior, belonging to the field of memory funds, plus a little extracurricular hot money game, big money will not come in for this reason.
Is it driven by technological innovation?
First of all, looking back at the bull market in 2017, it is caused by obvious technological innovation. The production of Ethereum and smart contracts has brought huge imagination space, attracted a large amount of extra-currency funds to enter the market, and generated a big bull market. Extremely sought after, it belongs to the endogenous growth of the typical currency. Rethinking the current bull market, obviously different, the technology not only has no new breakthroughs, even the cows that were originally blown are realized.
The emergence of EOS has falsified the future of dapp, the sex is good, the transaction is free, there is no killer application, and it is completely a paradise for gaming. Defi, which was touted at the beginning of the year, is actually not as good as a common traditional Internet product. Anonymous coins have several new technologies, but they are all different in the creation of wheels, the broken chest and the broken stone. The original anonymous currency is enough to be anonymous. Business privacy projects are based on TEE technology, and they all know that there are problems. The most promising safe multi-party computing MPC, now can also do addition, subtraction, multiplication and division, and the real commercial business is still a hundred thousand miles.
Therefore, this wave of bull market is not caused by the cause of the field, it can only be caused by off-site reasons!
If it is an off-site reason, based on the analysis of the traditional investment field, there is only one reason, the turn of the credit cycle!
Only the expansion of the credit cycle is expected to lead to the impulse of off-exchange capital investment.
The credit cycle is the most important cycle for macroeconomics and financial markets because it affects market liquidity and affects the availability of corporate funds. Liquidity determines the market trend. Turning over the history of modern human economics can be said to be a history of credit cycles. Historical economic prosperity is a cycle of credit expansion. The historical economic crisis is a cycle of credit contraction (high leverage in the US stock market in 1929, Japanese real estate stock market bubble in the 1990s, and the crisis caused by US subprime mortgages in 2008, a few years ago European debt crisis……).
Now, as the US interest rate hike is expected to weaken and the risk of a global economic slowdown increases, the credit tightening cycle that has been maintained for several years begins to slowly shift, leading to a global bull market for assets.
Looking back at the global stock market in the global first quarter, don't think that a stocks stand out, the global stock market is actually started at the same time, and the increase is very impressive! Nasdaq, Italy's FTSE, Europe Stoke and so on soared. Looking at the global commodity market in the first quarter, the total return of the 23 categories of commodities in the Bloomberg Commodity Index increased to the highest rate since 2016.
To put it simply, under the credit expansion cycle, investment funds will be crazy to find investment targets around the world. With the gradual compliance of the currency exchange, the institutional deposit channel has gradually improved, and virtual currency has become an indispensable part of the global fund asset allocation.
So what do the funds outside the circle buy in the currency circle? Not buying technology, it is buying assets!
In contrast to the details of the bull market, we can clearly confirm.
For example, during the pull-up process, btc's dollar trading pair has always been ahead of btc's usdt trading pair, indicating that the funds are purchased directly from the US dollar. For example, this time the btc is the strongest, because although his technical attributes are the weakest, the asset attributes are the strongest. Seeing other currencies with the highest gains have the same characteristics, the degree of decentralization is high, the community is extensive, and the asset attributes are strong, but the level of technology is uneven. Looking back at the garbage village of the currency, this time it actually fell all the way. All of the above are clearly in line with the style of traditional investment institutions.
The bull market in this currency circle is not driven by endogenous technological innovation, but the bull market that led to the formation of asset allocation by global funds.
At the same time, it also shows that digital currency has gradually integrated into the global capital market, and the institutional era is coming!
Boldly predict that the future trend of the currency circle will be closely related to the global financial environment. It is necessary to change the past technology-driven ideas as soon as possible, based on the global financial asset investment vision, in order to better grasp this round of bulls! (Mars Finance)