– What is the difference between the logic that drives this bull market and the past?
Indeed, since March, Bitcoin has been rushing with all major currencies, pushing for $8,300, setting off a wave of bullish market.
- ETH soared 20%, leading the public chain to skyrocket, the big bull market started?
- Bitcoin fell 10% in an instant. Is the “bull market” a short-lived one?
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- Research: A giant whale suspected to be the behind-the-scenes pusher of the 2017 bitcoin bull market
- What kind of logic is Bitcoin “artificial bull market”?
- Bitcoin "New Bull Market", Li Xiaolai came back, and the off-site organization also came.
However, the market that continued to rise in the past few days suddenly reversed by nearly 20%, and many friends who "chased high" began to panic.
Say a good bull market? The imaginary bull market shouldn’t be forced to hit $20,000. What kind of demon is hidden in a sudden plunge?
"Hedging" funds are difficult to pull the market
No one expected that the biggest black swan in this market turned out to be "Chuanpu." The trade war has made the currency competition between the US dollar and the renminbi white, and the natural “safe haven” function of the digital currency has just been needed. In addition, there are rumors that many large organizations are competing to attract funds, which directly induced the continuous rise of the market.
This is no different from the bull market in history. Bitcoin's natural “safe haven” function makes it a transitional asset like gold in political and economic fluctuations.
However, the strength and potential of the funds under the “risk-avoidance” sentiment is obviously not enough, far enough to support a round of bull market out of the six-parent unrecognized pace. In fact, this wave of gains was obviously hindered in several times when it hit the resistance level of $8,500. Only then did this downturn have a fierce deep retreat. As for the next step, whether it can be a new high, it depends on the market further. select.
Now that the digital currency market has a total market value of over one trillion yuan, the market value of bitcoin is nearly 60%, and the market is relatively large enough. In the early 11-15 years, there will be a wave of dozens of times in the digital currency market with a large inflow of funds. Now the total market size of Bitcoin is not big, but I want to make another wave of 10 times. -100 times of large growth, it is impossible to rely on the inflow of hundreds of millions of billions of "safe haven" funds.
In order to pull up a new round of bull market, in addition to the strength of retail investors, it is bound to require institutionalized larger-scale funds to enter the market. In recent years, many Wall Street financial institutions and technology Internet giants have tried to deploy in the digital currency market, such as: JP Morgan Chase, Fidelity Investment, Facebook and so on.
For the organization, when the early bitcoin is 3,000 dollars or 6,000 dollars, the cost is not the biggest pressure. Regulatory compliance is particularly critical. Since last year, the entire blockchain industry has been waiting for the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to approve the approval of the Bitcoin Exchange Traded Fund (ETF), but several ETFs submitted today are currently delayed by the SEC.
Once the ETF is approved, the rising momentum of Bitcoin will be opened. If a 2% of the US's billion-dollar pension is allocated to the digital currency market, the market's incremental space will be out of control, coupled with the inflow of funds from traditional financial institutions such as Wall Street and Internet giants. It is estimated that it will bring 10 to 20 times the growth of the current digital currency market. At that time, the bitcoin of 200,000 US dollars may be beyond your reach.
Of course, the SEC's approval is only one aspect. In fact, since the 17-year-old 1CO model was ruthlessly banned, the digital money market has never stopped its efforts on compliance, whether it is STO, no-coin blockchain, IEO and other model variants try to continue the ecological prosperity brought by 1CO in various ways.
Focus more on the "financial scene" gameplay
As we all know, 1CO is the fundamental reason for the growth of the previous round of bull market. At that time, 1CO debuted in a subversive new financing method, once again lowered the threshold of investment and financing, thus continuing the slogan of “mass entrepreneurship, innovation”, and a large number of investment institutions and entrepreneurs poured into the blockchain industry.
This brings unprecedented prosperity and prosperity to the blockchain industry .
However, with more, it is chaos. When the illusion of a large amount of money can be generated by a white paper, the market is occupied by various cottages, air and even pyramid money. Blockchain + music, blockchain + games, blockchain + lottery, blockchain + mobile phones, etc. Almost every vertical industry tries blockchaining, especially with hundreds of logos that are beautifully turned into a logo wall. The blockchain media shouted.
The whole industry, the industry of wealthy people, the three-point community of sleepless, the blockchain projects of all kinds, the hot money of investment institutions, and the blockchain industry conferences, let the whole ecology present a lively scene. It seems to have swallowed half of the "Sheng Tang" in one breath.
Undoubtedly, this has laid an absolute ecological foundation for the last wave of bull markets, but this round of bull market that is about to start seems to have not been like this. Investors, entrepreneurs, and media who have been injured and left the currency circle are afraid of shrinking their faces and licking their wounds in the corner?
In fact, it's not that they don't want to participate, but the gameplay has changed. After more than a year of ecological precipitation, this industry can do what it is. It is already clear that the industry ecology that has been ripened for a short time will be a game of dreams besides speculation and impetuousness.
Since the most direct application scenario of the blockchain itself is finance, now the overall environment, you will find that from a lot of unrealistic scenes, and began to focus on definitive financial (DeFi) gameplay. According to the DeFi data of DAppTotal, the DApp data service platform, the total lock fund of DeFi financial projects has reached 935 million US dollars, involving various scenarios such as lending, DEX, stable currency, payment, and derivatives.
This is a great deal. DeFi is directly robbing financial services such as P2P Internet finance and traditional bank lending. Having said that, it is really necessary for many banks to sweat, and the payment scene has been almost robbed by Ma Yun. Now the borrowing scene that has been relied on has also been targeted by the blockchain industry.
The fieryness of DeFi has only released a signal. As staking gradually becomes mainstream, Lightning Network has a place in the payment field, and more and more financial gameplay will emerge. Perhaps this is the most anticipated look before the start of this round of bull market. Although this road is also difficult and difficult, removing the ecological role of speculation, let the blockchain take root in a scene, there will be more imagination.
The "100-dollar" era is gone forever
It is important to understand that the most unstable factor in the current blockchain industry is still “speculative”. For ordinary retail investors, speculative currency is the biggest incentive to enter the currency circle. This is understandable. After all, making money in all walks of life is the biggest driving force.
However, do you dare to imagine that the project side cuts the leeks, the funds, and the pyramids to make the vampire devil? What is even more frightening is that many people know that this project has problems and still cannot withstand the temptation of greed and willingly be cut. The reason is that the last few rounds of bull markets have given many people an illusion that a hundred times and a thousand times of coins can achieve wealth freedom.
In this round of bull market, the probability of trying to catch a hundred times or even a thousand times is almost zero. Of course, this is in the blockchain industry where miracles are everywhere, and it is likely that they will be hit in the near future. However, the reason why the "100-dollar currency" era is gone forever is that the current model currency, resonance coin and other altcoins have changed into tricks, and many lectures have been given to many investors. Because of these The value of the currency climbed into the altar and fell faster and faster, and various rights defending events also emerged endlessly.
Although it is difficult to prevent the emergence of foxes, and let the fox expose the tail as soon as possible, it is also a manifestation of the industry's ecological maturity. Now I look at a lot of unintentional project parties. I can't wait for a hundredfold increase to wait for the amaranth to leave. A large part of the funds is likely to be the project owner's own. I am still quite optimistic about this point. After all, stupidity can't always be stupid, and the threshold for the formation of consensus will be higher and higher.
In addition, like IEO, a good project initiated in the name of well-known exchanges such as currency security, fire currency, and Gate, it is difficult to achieve a hundred times faster. Because the genes in the genes are not things, but pure funds, there will be a moment of collapse, and the anti-phasing force after the crash will affect the entire industry.
Therefore, if you look at the currencies such as VDS, such as resonance coins, model coins, etc., after the "demonization", a little bit of a consensus on the blockchain basis, advised Jun Mo Mo, advised Jun Mo, and advised Jun Mo.
The real number one player – the exchange
A few years ago, the popular selling of mining machines and mining pools, everyone was eager to be the cultivator of the blockchain era. However, the current large-scale environmental POW is gradually shifting to POS. The mining pool has been monopolized by giants such as Bitcoin. Ordinary small shrimp want to be a self-sufficient miner, and there is not much imagination.
Since last year, with the decline in the price of mainstream digital money, a large number of mining machines are on the verge of shutdown, and some of the mining pools have undergone a decisive transformation. Only the exchanges still earn a lot of money. Many people may vomit, the exchange is not a product of the blockchain, especially most centralized exchanges, simply not a blockchain. But it is undeniable that in the current blockchain environment, the biggest stage is the exchange.
(Wallets can also do traffic business, but because of the existence of the "private key" of the huge "BUG", the threshold for wallet traffic will be very high, so I will not discuss it. Fortunately, like imToken, TokenPocket, etc. Many head wallets are trying hard to make various attempts to lower the user's usage threshold.)
The currency is to do IEO, do DEX, do the public chain, do the stable currency, etc., the exchange is basically doing the traffic business, and the most scarce of the blockchain industry is the traffic. Who controls the flow, whoever holds the lifeblood of the industry. Obviously this is exactly the same as the role of BAT in the Internet age.
It should be said that what kind of bull market should be made in this round is, in the end, what the exchange wants to play? Model innovations such as IEO have stimulated industry progress to some extent, but the sustainability is too poor. The exchange also needs to make another effort in importing traffic. For example, combined with DeFi and other more financial games, the ordinary retail investors can improve the use experience of buying coins, selling coins, trading, investing, cross-chain payment, and bidding farewell to the game of the stock market. , go to the incremental market to fight.
It is obviously not possible to rely on the existing traffic and remove the playing method of the East Wall to make up the Western Wall. (Look, the DApp ecosystem is so badly played.
Marginal "funds" mode of operation
Most of the so-called "hundred times of coins" are hard to escape the shadow of the fund, but the fund disk does not mean that it is completely undesirable. It is not a derogatory term. In the early stage of the industry ecology, the funding disk has a great boost. In the early development of many mainstream currencies, it is also possible to dig out the funds, such as: Sun Yuchen's wave field.
The blockchain is about consensus, but the task of forming consensus is very difficult. Many projects use the fund disk model in the early stage, which is to use the incentive effect brought by the grading of their rights, which can make the early stage of the project use the power of the community to make a springboard, and attract the wider users through the consensus diffusion of seed users. This is understandable.
Take the EOS DApp ecosystem as an example. There are a lot of funds in the game. The so-called game is mining, trading is mining, and nodes are mining. In essence, it is considered that the manufacturing rights are graded to stimulate the self-propagation ability of the community. Many of the criticized EOS DApps have a very good living condition and are directly related to the asset disk attributes in their early operating mechanisms.
However, when the blockchain has a certain degree of industry popularity, it is time to open the hat of the fund. The operation of the pure fund disk sometimes raises the stone and licks its own feet, which is counterproductive. We often see that some DApps suddenly have a lot of data, such as daily life, transaction volume, transaction volume, etc., but they disappeared in a short period of time. This wave of users, when they come, but also geese do not leave marks. The operation of the fund disk undoubtedly magnifies the user's profit-seeking nature, which has caused such an embarrassing situation.
Looking at the general trend, the "funds" will eventually become a thing of the past. It is still unclear which model will lead to the formation of consensus in the future, but hope is not just a "funding disk."
So much, sum up, the digital currency market this round of bull market arrival posture must be "slow cow": slow, compliance or not yet informed; slow in financialization gameplay is only the beginning; slow in the ecological The old fox will always exist; the slow influx of fresh traffic will require further improvement of the ecological infrastructure; slow in innovation is still on the road, the technical bottleneck is still too much; slow in…
Having said that, only a slow development will allow the problem to be exposed as soon as possible, so that the industry can grow more steadily and rapidly.
Run slowly, faster! (chain view)