Encrypted Currency Investment: Missing Dialectics with Fortune

However, investors who have entered the currency circle for two years have experienced the big bull market in 2017 and stumbled in 2018. They have witnessed it as a tall building and saw it banquet guests, seeing it collapse. To borrow Zhou Xingchi's words: The ups and downs of life are simply too stimulating, and they are deeply attracted by the skyrocketing and plunging of the currency circle.

In the process of investing in the currency market, the most important thing is to choose. The choice means that there are countless situations. It is not that the good things happen in the imagination. Buying a hundred times of coins, the club will pick you up. In fact, most people need to face the following two situations: stepping into the air and entering the pit.

First of all, say that you are going to empty the air, why do you have to go through a hundred times of coins, maybe more than one. The most important reason for unpredictable factors such as bad luck is the difference in personal cognition.

Take Caesar's personal tragic experience. When the Coin Exchange was first launched in July 2017, Caesar was the first registered user. The first feeling that the Coin Exchange gave me was that the overall user experience was good and the transaction was smooth. Caton, there is no other idea. It happened that the bitcoin was raging at the time, and the market for the entire cryptocurrency was mourning, and the BNB was broken. When the coin founder CZ lived, he said in his mouth: "Believe us, the currency will definitely have value." Most of the investors have no patience. When the market is not good, they will make a strong effort. The lowest point seems to have reached the position of 0.6 yuan and began to rebound.

The second time I noticed that the currency has arrived at the end of July and early August of 2017. After listening to the CZ speech in Shanghai, I first came up with the idea of ​​buying bnb. Perhaps the idea at that time was not so strong, until the coin announced that he would join The news, could not sit still, began to open positions, when the price has reached 1.2 or so, from the bottom has nearly doubled the increase. Without any hesitation, the first batch of positions was opened directly. I want to continue to buy and buy in the second batch of callbacks. It’s not awkward, since the first batch of Caesar’s positions have been built, the price of bnb has been leaping forward. In just half a month, the position of Caesar’s position has been turned 20 times and reached a price of 20 yuan.

Things are not finished, just after 94, bitcoin rushed, BNB was also brought down, to the 16-13 position, the BNB all cleared the safe haven, waiting for the bottom-hunting opportunity. So the price reached 3.5 yuan position, has been standing steady, a bit of a gap from my psychological price of 1 yuan, Caesar did not worry about opening a position, has been waiting for opportunities. As a result, the opportunity was fleeting, and the BNB price did not fall. It stopped falling and rebounded. In just a few days, it returned to the position of 10 yuan, which means it tripled. The last final road is to the current position of 213 yuan.

Again, it is not to say that the decision at the time was regrettable. After all, the market is still there, and there are still many opportunities.

What we are going to discuss today is where is the underlying logic missing?

Missing the most fundamental reasons: the first is ignorance, the second is greed.

First of all, ignorance, human beings can never predict the future, and now they themselves are always ignorant and fearless. It is precisely because we don't know what will happen in the future. From the perspective of probability, the past, the present and the future are independent events, and the correlation is relatively low. The laws in each of them are even worse when the spirits are gone.

In this context, the way humans behave forms a fixed routine. With past experience and vision, standing at this time to make future decisions, investment is full of uncertainty about future investment. Finding the variables and finding an invariant is the personal investment decision, the uncertainty of the future, no one can master, the only one that can control is the self. Self-emotional mastery is a vital part of investment, and you can’t be surprised by Yunjuan Yunshu. Even if you miss a hundred times of money, it doesn't matter. If you lose your self-mind, it will be hard to find it.

Control the invariants of the self, and let the external variables change constantly, don't change. It's like drawing a card, grabbing cards in the same position, not catching a few, grab a few more, there will always be a meeting.

I told you to miss it and talk about the pit. Friends can more or less understand the pits of the currency circle, from shouting, running on the road, CX disk, wallet stolen, a trading house built mouse cage and DAPP, and so on. The currency circle is almost all the time, and some games are big. Everyone knows that some games are not played, and it does not mean that they have not appeared.

Everyone basically walked through the pit, why did they step on the pit, the main reason, Caesar is due to luck. Fortunately, juxtaposition is juxtaposed with greed. They are all ones that are ignorant.

Fortunately, you faintly know the risks involved, but because you have interests, you try to escape the punishment of a psychology.

In other words, during the cherished European and private equity frenzy, I heard the warning article twice in the Wang Hao column. Say the psychology of Caesar at the time:

Although, the European fraud scheme is very big, the project is very complicated, maybe the currency I bought is not.

Although, other people are very fanatical, at least the currency I bought is the relative risk of the issue price.

Although, others are very stupid, anyway, I am different from them.

As a result, it turns out that all retail investors are equally lucky and equally stupid.

In the real life, luck is everywhere, just take a lottery ticket. According to the normal knowledge of a little probability theory, the lottery winning probability is close to being knocked out by lightning for more than ten times. Certainly no one will buy it. However, every time after the lottery station, the crowd is swaying and lingering. Most of them are working-class people, who are eager to get rich overnight. To be honest, buying lottery tickets is not as good as buying coins. The success rate of buying coins is even better.

Many people don't think so much about their problems. Their emotions are attracted by various media reports. The myth of being rich overnight is completely without any rationality. They directly think that the next lucky one will be himself, must be himself, of course, Caesar did not say that there is no possibility of winning, but that the possibility is close to zero, and the number of times we buy lottery tickets should also be zero.

It is a counter-intuitive ability to avoid the need for luck.

Counter-intuitive ability is the most basic understanding of probability science, supported by data.

The probability of making mistakes in the intuition is also a plane crash. People are always worried about the safety of the aircraft because of the fear of instinct in the sky.

However, according to statistics, aircraft travel is currently the safest means of transportation in the world. It rarely causes major accidents. The accident rate of many casualties is about one in three million. If you take a plane every day, fly like this. In 8200, you may unfortunately encounter a flight accident, the probability of one-third of the accident, indicating that the aircraft is the safest, it is even safer than walking and cycling.

The facts also prove that the probability of a plane crash is the lowest in current vehicles. According to statistics, airlines around the world have flown 18 million flights, transporting about 1.3 billion people, and only 10 accidents. In the United States alone, the number of road deaths reached 21,000 in half a year. Although people always have some fear when they are flying, they feel very at ease when they are in the car. However, from the perspective of statistical probability, the most need to prevent problems before, but it is precisely the car we trust.

The above data is very clear and illustrates a problem, the probability of a plane crash is very low, at least too much lower than the car. What is the reason for the higher risk of the aircraft? Excessive reports from the media, especially the Malaysian Airlines incident in previous years, and the recent Boeing company scandal. The fact that everything looks like is not the real side of things.

Back to the topic, missing the trample and avoiding the pit, need more knowledge as a support, many people think that the speculation must look at the K-line chart, that the constant change of price is the key to extracting wealth from it, in fact, there are few One by one, look at the K-line chart to achieve wealth freedom.

Those who truly gain the freedom of wealth must be rich in the soul, and under the premise of the continuous development of knowledge, they can't see other people, can't understand the value they despise, and add enough patience.

Author: Bitcoin Caesar