Sino-US game, bitcoin is the "key man"?

"Nuclear Finance" APP deep nuclear report In the 40 years of reform and opening up, China is trying to avoid becoming a direct opponent of the United States. But now, this trade war is difficult to let the two sides easily close.

"The situation is worrying." Meng Yan, the promoter of the economics of the economy, said in an interview with the Nuclear Finance and Economics APP that once Sino-US confrontation is formed, it may be the biggest international event that has hit our generation.

"Of course, things are coming, they are big countries, and neither side will be embarrassed," he said.

Affected by this, global stock markets fell sharply, and institutional and individual investors' risk aversion increased. Singapore financial researcher Lindon Wang found that gold was once again favored by investors. New York gold prices once returned to the $1,300 mark, while encrypted digital currency as a new investment method, there are also a small number of investors who choose to buy bitcoin to hedge.

Some insiders are optimistic that the trade war is a "double lose" for both China and the United States, and only bitcoin is the "winner." In the interview with reporters, the coin circle "Bao Erye" said that after the trade war started, the safe-haven funds would enter the currency market.

However, many people also doubt this. Li Chen, CEO of Japan's digital finance, pointed out that Bitcoin is not a safe-haven asset in the ordinary sense. At this stage, the amount of encrypted digital currency is too small, and its influence is minimal.

As Lindon Wang said, "behind the trade war is the Sino-American war." In front of it, it seems to be a "singing and dancing", but it hides the invisible undercurrent and the unknown uncertainty, and the foreground is foggy.

The United States is really moving.

"The Sino-US trade war has been in existence for a long time, and this time it is really moving." In the eyes of many experts, the United States is likely to "dead," for the following reasons: First, the "US priority" policy; It is the trade deficit that makes it linger in the throat; third, China has indeed become the number one "competitor" in the United States.

An international observer who did not want to be named told the Nuclear Finance and Economics APP that China and the United States, as the two major economies in the world today, have a long history of conflicts. Once they reach the important node of qualitative change, their confrontation is inevitable.

On May 22, US Eastern Time, the US Department of State's Bureau of International Security and Nonproliferation announced sanctions against 13 Chinese companies and individuals, including 10 companies including Youxiang Technology and Zhejiang Zhaochen Technology. 3 individuals.

Screenshot of the US State Department website. Source: US State Department official website

Prior to this, Huawei was shut down and warned against Xinjiang… Many high-tech companies in China have been suppressed.

In fact, as Sino-US trade negotiations were deadlocked, as early as May 5, US President Donald Trump had already said on Twitter: From May 10, the United States will impose tariffs on Chinese goods worth 200 billion U.S. dollars. The tax rate was adjusted from the original 10% to 25%. In addition, the United States will impose a 25% tariff on Chinese goods valued at $325 billion in the future.

Tweet by US President Donald Trump. Source: Trump Twitter

However, Zhou Shayan, the founder of a project that has lived in the United States for many years, sentenced that "the trade war is only an appearance. It represents the international division of labor between the existing Sino-US industries. The scientific and technological war involved later is the battle for future industrial pies. ”

Therefore, China's "Made in China 2025", "Belt and Road" and 5G and other cutting-edge technology fields have become the relevant targets of Sino-US disputes. In response to the trade war provoked by the United States, Wei Jie, a professor at Tsinghua University, said in a speech that China can escape the catastrophe by doing four things, that is, open all-round, accelerate the “Belt and Road”, stabilize foreign exchange, and ensure domestic The economy grew steadily. In the end, the Sino-US trade war must be "you hit you, I beat me." The so-called avenue to Jane is not as good as it is.

Fund "safe haven"

The clock dialed back to the 2008 financial crisis.

At 2:10 pm on October 31, 2008, Nakamoto appeared with bitcoin and blockchain, depicting a new monetary system for us.

Later, bitcoin and blockchain evolved from a few geek toys into a subversive technological revolution. Some smart Chinese people seized the opportunity and became important players, once dominated the price trend of Bitcoin. Therefore, in the eyes of some investors, Bitcoin is a “life-saving straw”.

But some people are opposed. They believe that encrypted digital currencies are not supported by physical assets and are driven by consensus. This means that digital assets are easily affected by panic, resulting in a large fluctuation in the price of coins, which is not a stable investment. At the same time, for traditional assets, digital assets are the subject of assets, just the tip of the iceberg.

From the past experience, the trend of Bitcoin is closely related to US stocks and A shares. Analyst Shaoxiong explained that on March 22 last year, Trump announced the "301 investigation" results for China at the White House. On June 15, the United States announced that it would introduce a $50 billion worth of Chinese goods. The final product list of % tariffs. At these two points in time, the performance of Bitcoin and the performance of US stocks and A-shares were mainly down.

However, this time Bitcoin came out of the independent market. What is even more rare is that on May 16, the global digital money market recorded a 24-hour trading volume of US$111.17 billion, a record high. Prior to this, the 24-hour trading volume record was $72 billion held on January 4, 2018.

"This set of data is horrifying and I can't imagine it." Lindon Wang was both surprised and excited.

According to Shaoxiong's judgment, this is an investment signal that institutional and individual investors are optimistic about cryptographic digital assets, and it is still open to question about the industry's singular value of hedging and hedging financial risks.

Shaoxiong believes that the trade war has caused global stock markets to sorrow, the stock market investors' wallets have changed, and Bitcoin has been arrogant. Among them, there should be active funds entering the currency market. “There are some friends around me who are spinning back and forth between the stock market and the currency market. This phenomenon is not a case,” he said.

In this regard, the Nuclear Finance APP randomly interviewed dozens of stock market and currency market senior investors. The results show that 70% of respondents believe that the investment track is changing, and the encryption of digital currency has become a "new choice."

Not long ago, Deng Di, head of the Davos China blockchain delegation and chairman of Taiyiyun, also gave his expectations. He said, "As the Sino-US trade war has intensified, it has given the development space for the optimization of global capital allocation for encrypted digital assets." In his view, the Sino-US trade war has hindered the flow of capital between China and the United States. The issuance of overseas compliance exchanges and compliance securities tokens has enabled institutional investors to enter the currency market.

An investor who did not want to be named told the Nuclear Finance APP that the world's top two economies are counterfeiting, and the markets such as the stock market and the foreign exchange market must be the main fronts of the traditional capital game. In order to avoid accidental injuries, institutional and individual investors need to be in traditional channels. In addition, gold is the first choice for safe haven, but eggs can not be placed in a basket. Bitcoin, which is known as “digital gold”, must be a new “safe haven” for investors.

And Lindon Wang reminds everyone that Bitcoin is very likely to "go crazy" under the guise of hot money and speculative capital. "Once there is a large amount of traditional funds coming into play, affecting the country's economic activities, it is possible to welcome a stronger regulatory tide," he said.

The implication is that "the melons don't get the job, and Li doesn't make the whole crown." If the development is not good, the "eat melons".

Get rid of the dollar

"The essence of the trade war is the financial war, which is the rebalancing of the dollar system." Lindon Wang is well versed.

Since the 1970s, the US dollar has replaced the gold-centered gold exchange standard system and became the world's clearing and settlement currency. In Lindon Wang's view, the United States exported the US dollar to the rest of the world through the trade deficit, earned the coinage tax, and let the countries buy the US debt through the "US dollar repayment mechanism", forcing the whole world to maintain the stability of the US dollar. In the Sino-US trade, this rule is precisely destroyed.

At the same time, in many international financial crises, the defects of the dollar-based system have been fully exposed, and the status of gold as a reserve currency is gradually picking up. At present, the world's major economic powers are trying to get rid of the dependence on the "dollar". Its remarkable feature is that central banks are relocating through the increase of gold.

According to the data, Russia’s gold reserves increased from 457 tons in the first quarter of 2008 to 1880.5 tons in April 2018. China's central bank has opened five gold holding cycles for about 40 years from 1978 to the present. According to the latest data released by the People's Bank of China on May 7 this year, as of April 2019, China's gold reserves were 1900.42 tons.

And as central banks deepen their efforts in digital currency research and development, relying on gold to get rid of the dollar "baton" is no longer the only option.

"To get rid of the dollar hegemony, my point is to implement 'open finance'." An industry insider who did not want to be named said this "crazy" idea when interviewed by the Nuclear Finance APP.

According to the industry source, the birth of Bitcoin has pointed out the direction of “open finance”, that is, through the decentralized technology infrastructure, financial services that can be equally used by everyone and equally created by everyone can be realized, and the blockchain is open. Financial means. He believes that blockchain, as the most potential disruptive technology, is the source of future super profits. As the leader of the Leipzig pool, Jiang Zhuoer said, "The essence of the blockchain is economic freedom."

As everyone knows, "economic freedom" is the core of Austrian economics. Austrian economics believes that retrospective history, the currency was generated before the government, but was later monopolized by government power, and the government's control reduced the transaction.

It is worth noting that the emergence of Bitcoin broke this rule. It decentralized the distribution of money into the reward mechanism of “workload proof”. In addition, the encryption of digital currency has also broken the drawbacks of traditional remittances, opening up a new path for cross-border payment and settlement.

In view of this, Lindon Wang predicts that the game between the two major economies of China and the United States will become an important turning point in the development of encrypted digital currency. He plausibly said, "Under the global trading system, the blockchain can play a greater role as a decentralized liquidation method."

According to the Nuclear Finance APP, its metaphorical meaning is self-evident: the blockchain may be an excellent opportunity for China to overtake the United States.

At present, the blockchain has risen to the national strategy. The competition for this track has just begun, but everything has two sides. Lindon Wang believes that the issuance of digital currencies by central banks can reduce their dependence on the dollar. However, given the premise of the US dollar hegemony, it is difficult for any central bank to issue digital currency to achieve global consensus.

(At the request of the respondent, Lindon Wang is a pseudonym in the text)

Text: Master Vincent

Source: Nuclear Finance