Topic: The BSV expansion plan is difficult to implement. Austen Cong has repeatedly tried to prove that the identity of the local Cong Cong has caused resentment in the encryption and certification community. The market value of BSV is overestimated and the long-term investment value is low . In April 2019, Oban was threatened by the community on Twitter’s threat to the human flesh search of BTC enthusiast Hodlonaut, which led to the removal of BSV by the currency and several other small exchanges, losing part of the liquidity. The price also fell 25% within 24 hours after the announcement on April 15th. The BSV subsequently issued an upgrade route on April 16th, stating that the BSV will remove restrictions on trading scripts, transaction volumes, etc., and even allow miners to freely determine the block size without the block capacity limit. However, due to factors such as network conditions, the capacity of a single block cannot be too large. On the evening of April 18, BSV experienced a major failure in the deep reorganization of the block in a “stress test”. There are indications that the technical level and chain activity of BSV are not enough to support its market value. In the long run, there are certain risks, and investors should invest with caution.
Quotes: BTC is consolidating and remains strong. The total market value of digital certificates this week was 249.17 billion US dollars, an increase of 7.4% compared with last week, and the average daily turnover was 78.61 billion US dollars, down 20.4% from last week; the average daily turnover rate was 32.0%. Shrinkage consolidation. The current price of BTC is US$7,987, with a weekly increase of 8.8% and a monthly increase of 46.2%. The current price of ETH is US$249.5, with a weekly increase of 2.3% and a monthly increase of 50.4%. This week, the exchange's BTC balance was 753,000, a decrease of 2,899 from last week. The exchange's ETH balance was 8.563 million, an increase of 609,000, and the ETH selling pressure increased slightly.
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Output and heat: The computing power remained stable and the public attention was at a relatively high level. BTC's difficulty in mining this week is 6.705T, which is almost the same as last week. The average daily power is 52.8EH/s, up 2.6EH/s from last week. The difficulty of mining this week is 2007, which is 108.8 lower than last week. The average daily power is 165.1TH/S, which is about 4.4TH/S. The recent huge increase in digital certificates has renewed public concern.
Industry: The market is picking up, and the community has high hopes for ETH upgrades. The Ethereum Foundation will spend $19 million to fund the Ethereum 2.0 upgrade; Oban has claimed to be the author of the BTC white paper, and the BSV has soared 200%; Bitfinex has officially announced the launch of the IEO platform Tokinex, which will announce its first project on May 23. Zhao Changpeng counterclaimed the red shirt capital, claiming to have paid $7.79 million in legal fees.
Risk Warning: Market Volatility Risk
On the evening of May 21st, Beijing time, a message about "Ao Ben Cong's acquisition of Bitcoin copyright" spread among major media. According to a report by the source Coingeek, Craig S. Wright has obtained copyright registrations from the US Copyright Office for the Bitcoin white paper and most of the bitcoin first-party code. The registration document on the US Copyright Office website indicates that Craig S. Wright is the author of the pseudonym Nakamoto's Bitcoin white paper and code. Stimulated by this news, BSV surged more than 200% on the evening of the 21st, the highest hit 195 US dollars, after which the BSV price fell back to 100 US dollars, compared with the previous day, the average price of 62 US dollars still rose 62%.
Since April 2019, BSV has experienced major events such as the demolition of the currency, the deep reorganization of the blockchain, and the manipulation of prices. This issue will briefly review recent important events of the BSV and analyze its technical prospects and investment value.
The BSV is a pass issued by the BCH chain in November 2018. The difference between BSV and BTC and BCH includes: The BTC community's goal is to maintain its value storage and payment functions. Positioning is the “digital gold” of the blockchain world. The BTC community adheres to the quality of the code and does not add non-essential functions. The main chain is not expanded, and the BTC payment experience is optimized through the lightning network, and some extended applications are implemented through the side chain. BCH hopes to optimize the performance through expansion of the main chain block, optimize the payment experience by implementing zero-confirmation, pre-consensus and other technical solutions, and achieve its goal of becoming the application underlying platform by adding new opcodes. The goal of BSV is similar to that of BCH, but the attitude of BSV community to expand capacity is more radical, and it is hoped to remove various restrictions on block size and operation code in BTC code.
1.1 denounced Hodlonaut to get into trouble and was removed from several exchanges
Ao Ben Cong likes to show up in public. In the battle with the BCH community in 2018, Oban was frequently using social media to make exaggerated remarks and attack the BCH team. He also claimed to be a real Nakamoto, but failed to prove his identity with a signature signed by the BTC Creations private key. Hodlonaut, the founder of the "Lightning Torch" movement, also questioned Oban's true identity and ridiculed on Twitter in early April this year, angering Ao Bencong. Ao Ben Cong launched a human flesh search for Hodlonaut with the help of fans and said that he would send a lawyer's letter to Hodlonaut.
The behavior of Ownen Cong caused resentment and denunciation in the cryptographic community. On April 12th, Twitter launched a massive #WeAreAllHodlonaut event to support the organizer of the Lightning Torch and protect him from the attacks of fans. The day. Zhao Changpeng also released a tweet that Oban is not a Nakamoto Satoshi. If he continues to come, the currency will be removed from the BSV. On April 15, the company announced that it would remove all transactions from the BSV. The BSV dropped from US$72 to US$54 on the day, a drop of 25%. Some small exchanges have also followed the currency security BSV, but as of May 24, other well-known exchanges such as OKEX and Firecoin have not yet removed BSV.
1.2 “Great Leap Forward” expansion competition, leading to deep reorganization of blocks
Perhaps it was Aoben Cong's struggle against the currency security. On the day after the announcement of the BSV announcement, the BSV official released its upgrade plan called “Quasar”. The "Quasar" plan greatly ahead of the bsv expansion route. The upgrade route map shows that the BSV will directly increase the block capacity limit to 2G on July 24, 2019, along with technical upgrades such as parallel transaction verification, and customers. Performance optimization and improvement.
In addition, on February 4, 2020, BSV will also carry out an upgrade called Genesis, which involves a series of adjustments to the protocol and return the protocol layer to the original version of the SNB. At the same time, BSV will also remove trading scripts, trading volume and other restrictions, and even allow miners to freely determine the block size without the block size limit.
Due to decentralized thinking and consensus tolerance, BTC has restrictions on block time and block size. The average TPS of BTC is only about 6-7, which means that BTC can only process 6 to 7 transactions per second. Since the block time is about 10 minutes, plus 3 to 6 blocks to confirm the transaction, a transaction It usually takes more than 30 minutes to process. BTC's transaction processing capabilities are not sufficient to support high-concurrency applications, which is why BCH is determined to break with the BTC community and develop a mainline expansion plan.
Block expansion, also known as expansion, is the expansion method adopted by BCH and BSV. In 2017, the size of the BCH block was increased to 8MB, and in May 2018 it was increased to 32MB. In theory, the network TPS is proportional to the block size when the average block time is fixed. BTC's block size is only 1MB, only thousands of transactions can be stored, and the size of 1MB is also determined by Zhong Bencong considering various factors such as computer performance, storage space and network speed at that time. Block capacity should not be too large, allowing more ordinary users to participate in mining accounting. The size of the block cannot be expanded indefinitely. It is limited by the network condition and the storage capacity of the node. If a single block is too large, the processing speed of each link such as packaging, broadcasting, and verification will be affected. If some nodes do not synchronize the latest block within 10 minutes, the state between the nodes cannot be synchronized in time, then there is a risk of the network being forked.
On the evening of April 18, 2019, in a "stress test" of the BSV, a similar scene was staged. Supporters of BSV are eager to dig up large-capacity blocks on the main network, using specialized tools to send a large number of transactions to the main network, but each node is not technically ready, causing a failure when the nodes synchronize large blocks, resulting in a failure. Network fork. From 21:00 to 22:00, the deep reorganization of six blocks occurred in the height of the BSV main network block from 578640 to 578645.
Block recombination, that is, the latest blocks that have been written into the blockchain history, are replaced by other blocks for specific reasons and are no longer part of the longest chain. In this event, the network is temporarily forked due to the failure of the state of each node, and there may be multiple forked chains at the end of the blockchain while competing for the longest chain. The reorganization of the six blocks has been able to cause more serious consequences, meaning that the last six blocks have been replaced by a new longer chain. The block reorganization leads to: 1. The BSV transfer cannot be performed normally; 2. Some BSV blockchain browsers cannot be accessed normally; 3. The mining pools that have been dug into the replaced blocks have lost mining revenue; 4. Exchanges such as fire coins have suspended the replenishment of BSVs.
Blockchain reorganization may also cause the confirmed transaction to re-enter the unconfirmed state. This is because the block in the new longest chain may not have packaged the deal, and if this happens, the transaction is said to have rolled back. Fortunately, BSV did not have a transaction rollback in this restructuring, so it did not cause very serious consequences.
On May 21, Coingeek reported that Oban was registered with the US Copyright Office for the copyright of the Bitcoin white paper and the first version of the code, and said that Nakamoto was his pseudonym. The blockchain community naturally won't buy it. People slammed Osbourne for "spending $35 to register copyright instead of using the creation of a block sign to prove that he is Sin Cong very stupid" and "obtaining copyright from BTC white paper from the Copyright Office." The identity of the identity violates the spirit of centralization."
The U.S. Copyright Office also issued a rumor statement that when the Copyright Office received an application for registration, the applicant must prove that the submission was true and the Copyright Office was not responsible for investigating the truth of any statement. Registering represents the claim for the rights to a work protected by copyright law, not the recognition of the authenticity of the claim. There may be multiple opposing applications in the Copyright Office.
The expansion concept of BSV is more radical. Considering the current storage space and network conditions of computers, it is difficult to implement. The market price of BSV has fluctuated greatly in the recent past. After being removed from the currency, the liquidity is reduced more obviously, and it is more susceptible to man-made price manipulation. Coingeek is one of the supporters of BSV. This time, the news of the application of copyright by Ownen Cong was first released, which led to a 200% increase in BSV. It is inevitable that people suspect that Oban has the market to operate. BSV currently ranks 12 in market capitalization, but its technical level and chain activity are not enough to support its market value. In the long run, there are certain risks, and investors should be cautious in investing.
2.1 Overall market : BNB hits new highs, or indicates that the bull market will continue
The total market value of digital passes this week was 249.17 billion US dollars, an increase of 7.4% compared with last week's increase of 17.3 billion US dollars. After hitting a new high of $8,340, the BTC was attacked by short-selling foreign exchange futures and once fell below $7,000, but then rebounded strongly above $7,800, maintaining a high-volatility trend. Among the other main circulation certificates, only LTC and platform certification BNB and HT performed better than BTC. BNB broke through 34 US dollars and continued to hit a record high. Based on the exchange traffic, trading volume, USDT premium rate and other indicators, the incremental funds are still continuing. Influx into the market, the situation in the long-term bull market will not change.
The average daily trading volume of the digital pass market was 78.61 billion US dollars, down 20.4% from last week. The average daily turnover rate was 32.0%, down 10.3% from last week. The volume was consolidating and the market activity was larger than last month. Upgrade. The market value of BTC increased from 56.1% to 56.8%, indicating that funds began to flow to BTC again.
This week, the exchange's BTC balance was 753,000, a decrease of 2,899 from last week. The exchange's ETH balance was 8.563 million, an increase of 609,000. ETH's recent gains have been larger, and the selling pressure on the market has also increased.
The USDT market value was $3.04 billion, an increase of $210 million from last week. The USDT price was $1.003, up 0.4%. The USDT issued a large increase of US$100 million on the 23rd and 24th, and the total market value reached a new high. At the same time, the USDT exchange rate of USD also regained its position above 1.0, indicating that incremental funds are continuing to enter the market.
The current price of BTC is $7,987, with a weekly increase of 8.8% and a monthly increase of 46.2%. The average daily turnover of BTC this week was 24.5 billion US dollars, and the average daily turnover rate was 17.6%. The BTC maintained a high level of volatility, and the turnover rate dropped slightly from last week. The trend was strong on the disk, and the probability of oscillating up after the consolidation was large.
The current price of ETH is $249.5, a weekly increase of 2.3%, and a monthly increase of 50.4%. The average daily trading volume of ETH this week was 10.83 billion US dollars, and the average daily turnover rate was 40.9%. In the past month, ETH performed slightly better than BTC, but recently BTC has returned to strength, and ETH has fallen behind in the past week.
The EOS is currently trading at $6.40, with a weekly increase of 6.3% and a monthly increase of 33.3%. The average daily trading volume of EOS this week was 2.44 billion US dollars, and the average daily turnover rate was 43.2%. EOS's recent performance is weak, but in the long run, the application value of EOS will support its price to rise.
The current price of XRP is 0.385 US dollars, with a weekly decline of 0.4% and a monthly increase of 27.2%. The average daily volume of XRP this week was $2.03 billion, and the average daily turnover rate was 12.3%. The relationship between XRP and the broader market is not strong, and overall it is obviously weaker than other major circulation certificates. The market value of XRP is relatively high, the application scenario is narrow, and the imagination space is not very large.
The monthly volatility of the main pass this week has slowly climbed. BTC monthly volatility was 24.5%, up 3.3% from last week; ETH monthly volatility was 28.5%, up 2.4% from last week. The main circulation certificate came out of the second wave of the main wave in early May, the market activity increased, and the price fluctuations were more severe.
BTC hit a new high for the year and stood on the $8,000 mark three times. BTC has already reached the last high point of 8343 US dollars for 12 days. Since the beginning of April, the longest time to break through the previous high point is 12 days. The recent BTC high position shrinkage consolidation, the amplitude is continuously narrowed, and the market is approaching the direction of choice. Moment. BTC may choose to break or callback after the next time you step back to the triangle to compose the lower trend line.
BNB hit a record high and broke through $34. Platform Pass is similar to brokerage stocks. When the bull market came, there was a “Davis double-click” effect that both performance and market expectations improved. The valuation also rose with the rise of the ship, and often had excellent performance in the bull market. The continued rise of BNB also indicates investors' optimistic expectations for the market outlook. At the beginning of July, the platform will announce the profit of the platform in the second quarter. According to the volume of the first two months of the second quarter, the repurchase amount of the currency, fire, and OKEX may increase by more than 100% compared with the first quarter. The monthly platform pass is likely to speculate on a “performance expectation”.
The June market will not be led by the BTC alone in April. In addition to the platform pass concept, LTC's production cuts may also be the focus of investors. LTC will halve the block award at the end of August this year. According to historical market speculation, LTC's production cuts are likely to arrive two to three months in advance. Under the leadership of these main circulation certificates, June may be a "hundred flowers" market.
The BTC computing power has gradually picked up, and the difficulty of mining has risen steadily; the difficulty of ETH mining has declined, and the daily average computing power has increased slightly. BTC's difficulty in mining this week is 6.705T, which is almost the same as last week. The average daily power is 52.8EH/s, up 2.6EH/s from last week. The difficulty of mining this week is 2007, which is 108.8 lower than last week. The average daily power is 165.1TH/S, which is about 4.4TH/S.
This week's Google Trends statistics for the Bitcoin entry search is 14, down from last week, but still maintain a relatively high heat; Ethereum entry search heat is 10. The huge increase in digital certificates has drawn public attention.
4.1 Ethereum Foundation will spend $19 million to fund Ethereum 2.0 upgrades
According to Coindesk, the Ethereum Foundation detailed on Tuesday the organization will spend $19 million on ETH2.0, a key project within the Ethereum ecosystem, including “second-tier” expansion projects such as Plasma, and other research and development projects. . Another $8 million will be used in the next 12 months for the Ethereum 1x program to support the current Ethereum main network. The last $3 million is dedicated to the education and entry of developers, the organization of the annual Ethereum conference Devcon, and the support of the Ethereum Regional Community Organization.
4.2 Aoben Cong calls himself the author of the BTC White Paper, BSV soars 200%
According to Coingeek: "Obene has obtained the US BTC white paper and most of the original BTC code (version 0.1) of the US copyright registration. The registration document issued by the US Copyright Office recognizes Ownen Cong as the author of the white paper and code." Inquired, Ao Ben Cong only submitted a registration application to the US Copyright Office to support his statement on the BTC source code and the authorship of the white paper. At the same time, Coindesk said that it needs to be stated that registration does not mean ownership, nor is it a formal patent. The US Copyright Office stated that registering copyright does not mean that Aobis Cong is the author of the BTC White Paper.
4.3 Bitfinex officially announces the launch of the IEO platform Tokinex, which will announce its first project on May 23.
Bitfinex announced that it will launch Ekinfinex's new IEO platform Tokinex and will announce its first project on May 23. The first project will be open on June 13, 2019. USDT/BTC/ETH held by users at Bitfinex or Ethfinex can be directly used for project subscription.
4.4 Zhao Changpeng counterclaimed the red shirt capital, claiming to have paid $7.79 million in legal fees
Zhao Changpeng responded to his complaint against Sequoia Capital’s damage to the reputation that the arbitral tribunal dismissed all the claims of Sequoia, but because the arbitration was confidential, Zhao Changpeng could not publicly defend himself. The ban prevented him from raising funds for the currency at the end of 2017, and this is a critical moment in the market. The Hong Kong court later ruled that Sequoia’s act of obtaining an injunction was an abuse of the law, and Red Shirt China incurred a total of $2.4 million in legal fees. But even after winning the lawsuit, he was not allowed to make the results public, so he must counterclaim to announce the results. Zhao Changpeng said that he needs to advance the legal fees of $779,000.
Source: Tongxuntong Research Institute