On May 29th, the founder of Leipzig Mine Pool, Jiang Zaller, gave a keynote speech at the Bit Xiaolu Mining Ecology Conference on the next round of bull market, expressing his observations and thoughts on the currency circle and the mining circle for many years, as well as the current Judgment of the situation.
In Jiang Zall's view, the source of the bitcoin bull market is that Bitcoin creates economic freedom. With freedom, you can protect transactions, and transactions can create wealth.
- Bitcoin Weekly | Coin price plummets, Binance welcomes net Bitcoin inflows for six consecutive days
- Twitter Featured | Analyze the current status of lightning network: nodes can not make ends meet, channel, capacity stagnant growth
- Bitcoin rise may be related to trade wars
- Bitcoin welcomes the new outbreak window? This policy has spawned the need for trillions of funds to be shuffled.
- Bitcoin rebounded after falling below 10,000 US dollars, and the altcoin bears a large selling pressure
- Assange was arrested, and WikiLeaks’ bitcoin donations continued
The bear market for bitcoin was created by the bull market. When the bull market came, the price rose irrationally. For example, the first bull market for Bitcoin occurred in June 2011, when the cumulative increase on the 60th was nearly 300%. The short-term rise is too fast. Newcomers will not be able to enter the market with new funds. The currency price will collapse from the peak, and the bear market will start.
Bitcoin can't escape the cycle law, but it has temporarily escaped the curse of "the volume is getting bigger and the volatility will gradually decrease." We see that Bitcoin has risen 100 times from 80 to 8,000 from the beginning of 2013 to the end of the year, and has also increased 100 times from 2016 to 2017, from 1300 to 130,000. Why?
Jiang Zhuoer believes that this is the currency freedom of Bitcoin and the growth of Ethereum's equity freedom. Looking forward from the current node, it is predicted that there will be new economic freedoms. The first is the free currency of the stable currency; the second is that decentralized storage may bring freedom of information.
So how do we make money? Jiang Zall said that we should focus our attention on what provides new freedom and then ensure that all our investments cover the forefront of economic freedom. This is also the "cover spring eye" theory put forward by him. Simply put, it is not allowed to invest only in bitcoin, and some small currencies have increased even more in the next bull market.
After finding a hundred times of coins, how to maximize the return on investment? Jiang Zhuoer believes that although Bitcoin has risen so many times, how many people can successfully low-sell and throw high? It is very difficult to take the currency and successfully escape the top, so we have to build our business on the currency, such as mining, doing over-the-counter trading, etc.
The following is the full text of the speech, enjoy:
What is the motivation for the bitcoin bull market?
The PPT for this speech is called "The Next Round of the Bull Market" and was written in April. It can be seen from the trend of the currency prices in April and May that the current bull market has begun and belongs to the previous stage of the bull market.
To talk about bitcoin bull market or talk about mining, we need to have a deep understanding of Bitcoin. The first question to answer first is why Bitcoin has a bull market.
In the past, most people in the society still did not fully understand Bitcoin. They would think that Bitcoin is a scam. Now it is better. Some people think that Bitcoin is a bubble speculative and has solid value support.
Talking about Bitcoin, we will first talk about a basic economic principle. Although it is very basic, we have not been able to have a deep understanding of it for 5,000 years. That is, trading can create wealth .
For example, suppose there is a farmer and a peasant woman. Farmers are good at planting land. Farmers are good at weaving. When they are not trading, they are forced to plant and weave. Everyone has to do things that they are not good at. They always The yield is 650 for this part of yellow. If they have transactions between them, that is, there are businessmen to connect the production between them, they can do only planting or weaving, and everyone does what they are good at, so his total output becomes The green 1000.
This is a very important definition, and we have not fully understood them for thousands of years. The ancient industry was divided into "Shen Nong Business and Industry", merchants ranked at the very end; there was speculation before the reform and opening up… But in fact, the merchants' transactions, like farming and weaving, are actually creating wealth.
Supervision is a major obstacle to free trade, especially a lot of unnecessary regulation. This picture is what Trump took to power. The right side of the pile is the current regulatory policy. The small pile on the left is the 1960 regulatory policy. Trump said that I want to cut all regulatory policies and restore regulatory policies to the 1960 level. After Trump did this, we can observe that the growth rate of US GDP has actually increased by 3%-4%. Our current GDP growth rate is only 6%, and the US per capita GDP can still grow by 3%. Very amazing. What is it? I think it depends on the wealth created by the free exchange.
Wealth creation depends on freedom. What do we use to protect freedom? Blockchain can create freedom. Blockchain is a decentralization technique. For example, Bitcoin now has more than 20,000 nodes in the world. To eliminate bitcoin, unless these nodes are eliminated at the same time, because they cannot be eliminated, freedom is created.
Bitcoin's bull market is derived from the economic freedom created by Bitcoin.
The bear market is a tumor grown by the bull market.
How did the bear market for Bitcoin come? Quite simply, a bear market is created by the bitcoin bull market.
We can simply understand the currency structure of Bitcoin. The bottom red is the use value of Bitcoin. Because Bitcoin brings economic freedom, bitcoin will be used in some scenarios. For example, traders of cross-border trade can settle in ten minutes with Bitcoin. Or some people don't want their wealth to be diluted, they will be replaced by bitcoin. They constitute the most basic bitcoin users, but these people are not many now. We assume that they have injected a unique use value into Bitcoin, and something interesting happened at this time.
Because the total amount of Bitcoin is constant, some people will observe more and more people using Bitcoin, so it will hoard bitcoin, wait for the price, and wait until the demand rises and sell it to those who need it. This is the stored value of some of the yellow bitcoin, which pushed the value of bitcoin from one to ten.
The third wave was the emergence of speculative speculators who observed that Bitcoin continued to rise for a short period of time, and hundreds of thousands of rises, they came in to speculate. They injected a huge amount of liquidity into Bitcoin, and when the bitcoin was fired for a hundred dollars from the value of use, there would be a burst of bubbles.
We can mathematically describe this burst, which is the 60-day increase in the price of the currency. If the price rises slowly in a short period of time, new investors will gradually come in. At this time, it can support the price increase. In the first half of the bull market in 2016-2017, we saw that the price of coins has slowly risen, more and more people are coming in, but to a certain extent, they will enter an irrational state, and with the addition of leverage, the price will be Rising, rising too fast, exceeding the speed of newcomers entering the market, there will be bubbles.
Let's look at these points on the map. The first one is the bubble in June 2011. It has risen by 300% on the 60th. The short-term rises too fast. Newcomers don't have enough new funds to keep up, and the price will collapse from the peak. The bear market started.
This picture is the bear market in 2011. It fell very badly. It fell from 32 dollars to 2 dollars and fell 93%. At that time, bitcoin was used without any application. Everyone just used it to play, then Many people think of Bitcoin: they have to hang up. No one expected that Bitcoin would be back.
In 2013, Bitcoin had two bull markets. This was the bull market in the first half of 2013. The bear market that followed appeared to have lost a large number of people.
The bear market in 2013 is still very similar to that in 2011, so the early investors in 2011 said that the bear market is coming, and bitcoin has fallen to 93%, and the coins are almost lost in the central axis. It is. However, the bull market has not fallen so much, only down 75%, but many people sell coins in this position. Soon, in the second half of the year, a large number of Chinese players drove the price directly to 8,000 dollars, leaving many people in the dust of history.
How to catch the next hundred times?
Fortunately, the signal of the bull market seems to be coming. Why is the price of coins rising so fast now? It is generally believed that it may be because the market is halving the market in advance consumption. The script has been played twice (the bitcoin has grown tremendously after halving twice), and everyone understands that the halving will increase, so buying it early will have the effect of this kind of cut-and-fill, resulting in a rise in the price of the currency. .
At that time, the method of predicting the price of coins was to determine that Bitcoin had a cycle, and the second was to believe that as the volume of Bitcoin became larger, its volatility would become smaller and smaller. However, we have seen that Bitcoin has risen 100 times from 80 to 8,000 from the beginning of 2013 to the end of the year, and has also increased 100 times from 2016 to 2017, from 1300 to 130,000. Why?
Bitcoin's first 100-fold bull market is due to currency freedom; the second 100-fold is due to new freedoms in the market and free equity (ie Ethereum). Previous equity transactions were completed in the stock market and were strictly controlled. Ethereum has created a new way of fundraising, which can freely raise funds globally without restrictions. In the beginning, this freedom brought a lot of scams, and then this freedom brought new freedom and wealth.
This picture shows the number of active addresses of Ethereum in 2017. The number of active addresses at that time was close to Bitcoin, so the total market value of Ethereum was close to 40% of Bitcoin at the time. This is a very amazing number. It is conceivable that from Bitcoin to the later Ethereum, there will be more and more products in the blockchain world, as well as the currency that can provide economic freedom based on this.
Standing at the current node and looking into the future, we can predict at least two economic freedoms. The first one is the freedom of legal currency to stabilize the currency.
The French currency was also strictly controlled. It is difficult for a country's legal currency to invade the border of another country. Stabilizing the currency can change all of this. For example, if we want to open a US dollar account, we can only go to Hong Kong. Going to Hong Kong to open a bank will require you to provide a large amount of information or to deposit hundreds of thousands of dollars to open an account, the cost is very high, but the emergence of stable currency dollars or yen stable currency can make the world Most people can open a US dollar account with a very cheap smartphone. Stabilizing the currency may realize the theory of currency competition.
The second decentralized storage may bring freedom of information.
Although the information on the Internet can now be transmitted globally, it is not completely free, and information can be strictly regulated. It can be imagined that people's demand for information liberalization is also huge.
So how do we make money? We should concentrate.
People's attention is very valuable. We observe what provides new freedom, and we must ensure that all our investments cover the forefront of economic freedom. This is also my "covering the eye" theory.
Simply put, in each round of bull market, the growth of the small currency will be even greater. In the previous round of the bull market from 2016 to 2017, Bitcoin rose 144 times from the lowest point, while the Lexbite coin increased 500 times. Of course, small currencies are also risky. The top 20 small currencies in the previous round of bull markets are now abdicated, so we should look for the next round of active small currencies.
"Do not hold 5 minutes if you don't hold something for 5 years."
The point we have to control in our investment is to be anti-fragile and to lightly control the risk. Anti-fragility means that when a black swan appears, if you are a beneficiary, you have anti-fragility. The currency circle can be called the Black Swan Lake, and we must have anti-fragility.
To give two examples, the first example is that some people only vote for bitcoin (then missed Ethereum). Why did Ethereum develop? This is worth thinking about. Because it provides new freedom. So we have to cover the economic freedom that everyone has proposed. For this reason, I developed the theory of "covering the spring".
Another example is to buy only coins without mining. The income of the coin is higher than that of mining. Why mine is not just a simple coin? Because the coin is difficult and the risk is high. The most reliable method is to develop a currency-based business system, that is, to build your own business on the currency, and we are not short-term short-term or long-term short-selling.
Why is it difficult to say that the coin is difficult? To give a negative example, Duan Hongbin entered the bull market in 2011. In 2011, the bear market was bought from the front. When Duan Hongbin was thrown off the car, he was thrown away in the bear market in 2013. At that time, he thought that Bitcoin would fall 93% again. It was probably sold at a higher level when it was sideways. The currency fell. I was still complacent, "I ran successfully," he thought. Then the price of the currency rose sharply in half a year.
Many people know that I managed to escape in 2017. I sold all the coins in early December. It seems that I sold them well. In fact, I did two escapes, not just escaped. When the bull market started in 2017, I wrote an article to make a prediction – the highest point in this round of bull market is 30,000. At that time, it was thought that the volatility of Bitcoin was not so big, and it was impossible to rise to a hundred times, so it made a prediction of twenty times. Then, when the price of the currency was 30,000 in 2017, I sold all the coins (the first time I fled the top), and there were obvious signs of bubbles at that time, and then there was a “9.4” regulation. But getting off the bus proved to be irrational. After "9·4", a large number of mining machines began panic selling. I bought all the money for the escape from the top, and later I saw that the price of the coins rose to 130,000. Fortunately, I bought a mining machine to mine and collect coins, so I really managed to escape at the peak of more than 100,000.
It is actually very difficult to build your own business on the currency. A positive example is Zhao Dong. When he was in the bear market in 2014, he was owed thousands of tens of thousands of coins because of the addition of leveraged coins. The price of the coins rose by a hundred times, but why did he pay off the price of the coins? From the common sense, he is always unclear about debt. But because he did the over-the-counter trading, the business is related to the currency, so even if the price of the currency rises, his income will increase (he is part of the fixed withdrawal currency). Finally, Zhao Dong still settled the thousands of coins owed.
Once again, it is very difficult to build the business on the currency. Zhao Dong can do the on-market trading because of the long-term accumulation. For most people, the easiest construction system is probably mining machine mining. You put When money is invested in mining, there will be sustained bitcoin output, equivalent to buying long-term options for bitcoin.
However, nowadays, mining and mining are becoming more and more specialized and grouped. There must be enough resources, and the volume is large enough to talk with local governments and power stations to build mines. Retail investors cannot build large-scale mines themselves. It is also very troublesome to buy dozens of mining machines to find mines. Bitcolu Cloud has made a good product. It connects professional group miners and retail investors, and makes a transaction. The transaction will create wealth.
Finally, Lebit is a professional mining service provider, welcome everyone to Leipzig mining, thank you.
This article is organized by Odaily Planet Daily.