"I feel that the spring of the currency circle is coming, who is playing in the currency? Mutual powder." When the bitcoin price broke through 7,000 US dollars, Tianyu made a state in the circle of friends.
The currency is a vertical community platform for blockchain information, where a lot of Bitcoin players are gathered. Although he began to participate in the currency circle, Tianyu bluntly said that he has been a quiet observer for many years.
As early as 2013, Tianyu worked for a security anti-virus software company in China. In a thick virus analysis report, he saw the scene of Bitcoin used for trading. "They were first used in black industries such as drug trafficking, extortion, extortion, etc." Bitcoin was "a very abnormal existence" in the perception of practitioners in the anti-virus industry, but many people find it useful.
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On the dark silk trading website "Silk Road", which is well known to the public, the transaction only accepts bitcoin to circumvent the supervision of banks and the government. “The dark-net transactions all use bitcoin, and the price is a few dollars at the time, which is of little value.”
However, the recent bitcoin price has repeatedly broken through the recent highs, so that Tianyu once again feels the opportunity to miss the wealth. Since entering this year, Bitcoin has ushered in a roller coaster-style ups and downs, first breaking through $8,000 and quickly falling below $6,200 and falling back to $8,000. In the early morning of May 31, after a short break of $9,000, Bitcoin quickly fell back after 15 minutes, ending at 11:58, and quoted $8,276.
Roller coaster-style ups and downs, when the outside world discussed "whether the bull market is coming", the bitcoin veteran players Liu Ming and Tang Zhen have performed in a cloud, and each round of Bitcoin's ups and downs is normal in their view. If we compare the bitcoin to a war, they will not care about the generals lost in the smaller cities. They only look at the market situation, not easy to trade, and long-term operation is the three principles of their playing currency.
When he touched Bitcoin in his early years, Liu Ming and Tang Zhen were attracted by their own novelty and sense of science and technology. They determined that "this is something of value" and insisted on some kind of religious belief. The two entered the currency circle in 2013 and 2015. After several years of ups and downs, they also talked about the so-called bitcoin belief. “People who play bitcoin are very religious, except Bitcoin, who Do not believe." Tang Zhen said.
"It was still crazy now."
"I have always been a bystander. I only care about things related to viruses and security. I don't know anyone else's money, so I really understand, it's already in the second half of 2017, when Bitcoin got hot, too. Bitcoin prices are the craziest time," Tianyu recalls.
Although Bitcoin was launched in 2009, the real experience of the skyrocketing occurred in 2017, which was even called “the year of Bitcoin” by the industry. In 2017 alone, Bitcoin rose by 1900%. The crazy rise of this year is also inseparable from two major events. One is the “hard fork” of Bitcoin. Second, on September 4, the central bank announced that the ICO was characterized as illegal financial activities, suspending all domestic bits. Currency trading.
Tianyu recalls that one of the signs of bitcoin madness was the rise of the red envelope group. The most popular one was the "three o'clock sleepless blockchain" WeChat group active in late 2017 and early 2018. The group once gathered. Cai Wensheng, Xu Xiaoping, Shen Nanpeng, Chen Weixing and so on.
"The more the currency circle is, the bigger the red envelope is." Tianyu, who was pulled into the group and only as a bystander, grabbed a lot of red envelopes in the "three o'clock sleepless blockchain" WeChat group, the highest amount reached 200 yuan, but after a few months of active, the number of red envelopes is getting less and less, which to some extent indicates the "cold winter" of bitcoin prices. Later, due to the constant advertising in the group, in September 2018, Tianyu retired and became a bystander in the currency circle outside the group.
Recently, some WeChat groups in the currency circle have once again appeared in the top red envelopes. Tianyu is a bit stunned, active in the currency and other platforms, and began to study the currency price and transactions. He laughed and said that in the node where the price of the currency rebounded and overheated, on the one hand, he could no longer miss the opportunity. On the other hand, he told him that he could not invest too much. "It is also going to take thousands of dollars to play some small coins, not to be addicted. among them".
At this time, it was not the time when the bitcoin transaction was the craziest. In Liu Ming’s view, the heat was dispersed by the speculation of some altcoins. A few years before Tianyu and Bitcoin passed by, it was the most insane period of speculating Bitcoin, and it was also when Liu Ming and Tang Zhen were all in. "At the time, the level of madness, in a sense, I feel crazy than now. At that time there may be hundreds of thousands or even one or two million people in the country, all of which are speculating on a bitcoin." Liu Ming said.
In 2013, the Dark Net Silk Road was blocked, causing bitcoin prices to fall by 20%. Friends in Liu Ming’s currency circle said that 20% would be earned in two weeks. He thought about it and thought it was a good investment. When the bitcoin price was around 700 yuan in October of that year, he decided to invest 10,000 yuan. A month later, the price of the coin has increased tenfold, and with some leverage, Liu Ming earned more than 1 million.
He did not intend to stop this, but did not continue to increase, decided to "use more than 1 million in it slowly." After carefully studying the Bitcoin white paper, Liu Ming began to have a religious-like belief in Bitcoin – "Bitcoin is a very magical thing."
Tang Zhen, who also had this belief, participated in the Bitcoin transaction for the first time in 2015. “At that time, Bitcoin was still very cheap, and the lowest price was around 700 yuan. At the time, I started with 100 bitcoins.”
Then, in 2016 alone, Tang Zhen sold and bought 100 bitcoins on hand, and traded back and forth several times. Although he was also set aside during the period, the total amount of Bitcoin in his hand was An increase of 100 on the basis of the original.
By the end of 2017, when the price of the currency rose to more than 10,000 US dollars, Tang Zhen was very surprised. "I never even dreamed that it could rise so high." In the past two years, he was almost in a 24-hour state. "The people who are engaged in our business are basically two or three no-sleepers. I sleep only at five or six in the morning and continue to stare in the afternoon."
Unclear belief in unclear
If you ask, what is the charm of Bitcoin?
In addition to the endless talk of Bitcoin’s “peer-to-peer”, “decentralization”, “distributed”, Nakamoto’s ideological framework system and the blockchain technology behind it, they are no exception. The word "belief" is mentioned. As for the specific beliefs, they themselves are hard to tell clearly, which sounds more like a vain thing.
A person who had been in contact with bitcoin transactions in the early years told China Entrepreneur that the early people involved in bitcoin transactions were mostly anarchists, geeks, etc. They generally advocated that "bitcoin is a great invention". They are known as "the fundamentalists of Bitcoin" in the circle. Later, with the general public and non-believers joining bitcoin transactions and even speculation, this part of the “fundamentalist” beliefs is being diluted.
Then, in the eyes of those who claim to have bitcoin "belief", Bitcoin is more like "being a letter." "Virtual things you can't see or touch, but it's worth the money. Everyone who believes in bitcoin is because of wealth. It (bitcoin) starts from scratch. After so many years of trekking, it can reach 150,000 yuan. Do you believe that you believe it or not?" Tang Zhen said with a smile.
In Tang Zhen’s investment plan, Bitcoin accounted for 50% of all his investments. He was once on the exchange and sold 30 bitcoins at the high bitcoin price in 2017, which made him the first. Really touched the wealth, making him even more certain that "bitcoin is a visible and tangible thing."
After many transactions, Tang Zhen now has 50 bitcoins. He feels very satisfied. "I have 50, then I will be enough." Now he doesn't have to stare at it for 24 hours as he used to, and he starts to do some bitcoin-related content evangelism and investment. "The position of a person in the currency circle is not just to see how much he owns bitcoin, but also to see him. The contribution and contribution of the industry to share and learn."
Different from Tang Zhen, Liu Ming gradually experienced the process of changing the belief in Bitcoin. He confessed that he used to believe in Bitcoin, and said that the charm of Bitcoin exists and it has a certain relationship with wealth. "To say that you can't make money all the time, it's hard to talk about faith."
But in 2017, he found that Nakamoto's ideological framework could not be implemented in reality. From then on, he no longer believed in Bitcoin, but only regarded it as an investment. "Although I don't believe it, I think his mind frame is still very attractive and enough to attract a lot of people, so the price of it (bitcoin) will definitely rise."
In the face of the rise and fall of bitcoin prices, Liu Ming said that his mentality also collapsed. To make matters worse, some of their project investments have also encountered a friend's crisis of trust, which has also refreshed his perception of human nature. However, he said that he would not withdraw from the circle. In his logic, "when to quit and retreat, there is no big difference."
In the early morning of September 30, 2018, Li Xiaolai, who claimed to be the "richest man in the currency circle", posted a message on Weibo and WeChat circle that "individuals will no longer invest in any project, whether it is a blockchain or not." This was interpreted by the people of the currency circle as the declaration of Li Xiaolai's withdrawal from the currency circle.
In Tang Zhen's view, the in and out of the currency circle is normal, which is also the attraction of Bitcoin for everyone. "Only a few people bought Bitcoin and put it there, didn't trade it, or lost it after buying it, and then wanted to find it, and found it again." And this part of the people is the most abnormal in their eyes. .
"As long as it is a bull market, he (Li Xiaolai) will definitely come back. Every time he returns, he will come back again and again. This is a normal phenomenon in the currency circle. We often say that he (Li Xiaolai) will be late, but Absolutely will not miss the future.” Since May, due to the bitcoin roller coaster-style ups and downs, many projects have also risen a lot. Liu Ming described this as a “stimulated market”. “It’s hard to say that you want to see it. See clearly."
Will Bitcoin die?
The rise and fall of Bitcoin has caused many people to enter and exit, and interested newcomers are also entering. Tang Zhen said that there are already a lot of young people in the circle who started playing bitcoin. "They are not playing alone, but they are playing around, they will study, they can also preach, and some excellent 00 have begun to study the blockchain."
Some magical power of Bitcoin continues to attract some people to the scene, and some people are beginning to stay away from it. After studying the currency for a period of time, Tianyu said that he could not understand the value of the currency. He still hasn’t started a bitcoin or even a bit of bitcoin. He thinks that bitcoin is fried and it’s a kind of cognition. He doesn't seem to be reliable. "If you think it's worth it, it's worth it. If you say it's worthless, it's worthless. This 'cognitive' stability is still unstable, not easy to say."
Previously, many people thought that Bitcoin was a "big bubble". In May of this year, the price of bitcoin broke through $7,000 for the first time. After more than half a year of cold winter, Bitcoin seems to usher in its warm spring. Those who are skeptical about Bitcoin seem to be beginning to realize that bitcoin has a real "price", and those who think "bitcoin is a tulip bubble" may also be thinking about whether they are wrong or not, returning to the currency circle. .
There are even many people who claim that Bitcoin has entered the bull market. They launched an activity on Twitter, calling on people to abandon gold, embrace Bitcoin, and blockchain experts have suggested that "Bitcoin will replace gold and become a new one." The view of the international reserve currency.
Song Shuangjie, founder of Tong Zhengtong and a doctor of economics, said that Bitcoin is now considered more of a kind of digital gold in the industry, that is, a value storage carrier similar to gold. Although bitcoin stability and universal acceptance are not as good as gold, but because of its scarcity, portability, infinite segmentation, verifiability, etc., in theory, Bitcoin has great possibilities and trends in replacing gold. Sex is just a matter of time. He further said that the technology behind Bitcoin has certain prospects, but it does not necessarily subvert the existing financial system. In the future, it may become a competitor of the financial system, or a parallel with equal status, or become a financial Supplement to the system.
In this regard, other financial experts have different views. Jiang Jianqing, chairman of the China-Central and Eastern Europe Foundation and former chairman of the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, said that the price of Bitcoin is volatile and very fragile. It is not suitable for currency, and the currency needs to be stable. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said that although Bitcoin prices are very crazy, it cannot affect the economy on a large scale, so it tends to be regarded as a speculative asset.
But the Bitcoin circle also has its own logic. In their view, bitcoin production is halved every four years and will be halved again by May 2020. This is considered an important part of the investment game. node. In Tang Zhen’s view, this means fewer opportunities.
Song Shuangjie told the "Chinese Entrepreneur" that from the perspective of economics, as the supply growth of Bitcoin continues to decrease, and the demand continues to increase, it will inevitably lead to price changes.
Bitcoin is gradually decreasing, will it eventually die out? Previously, many people wrote that Bitcoin would die. It had been "dead" for ten consecutive years. Some people have counted it as "dead" more than 340 times.
The reason why "being killed", Liu Ming said that "some people think that such a game currency is not worth so much money, just a hype." But he believes that Bitcoin has its own ideas and ideologies behind it, and that it will not die in the visible future of mankind. Tang Zhen firmly believes that the existence of technology and beliefs will make Bitcoin not die. "Bitcoin still exists even without the Internet."
As an "equivalent", the prospects of Bitcoin are different, but outside the currency circle, the industry is accelerating the study of the application of blockchain technology behind it.
Jiang Guofei, vice president of Ant Financial and director of the Dharma Institute of Financial Technology, told China Entrepreneur that bitcoin will not disappear, but it will not necessarily spread widely. It will only exist as a scarce digital currency and will not involve large-scale technology applications. "Bitcoin is only an application of blockchain technology. Its development does not represent the development of blockchain technology. Blockchain technology has a strong vitality. With the digitization of the industry, blockchain technology will solve multi-party synergy. And improve the efficiency of data and value credibility transfer."
(According to the requirements of the interviewee, Tianyu is a pseudonym)
Source: Chinese Entrepreneur Magazine
Wen | "Chinese Entrepreneur" reporter Zhang Hong