He Baohong of the Institute of Information and Communication: "Deviation from the virtual reality" is the overall situation of blockchain development in 2019

From June 1st to 2nd, 2019, the China Blockchain Technology and Application Summit Forum hosted by the Chinese Computer Society (CCF) was held in Nanjing.

On the morning of June 1, He Baohong , director of the Institute of Cloud Computing and Big Data of China Information and Communication Research Institute, delivered a speech entitled “ New Trends in the 2019 Blockchain Industry ”.

Core point of view:

1. Open source has become a method and tool to lead the entire technological innovation;

In 2.2018, my description of the blockchain was “deep and hot”. In 2019, I used four words in the overall situation of the blockchain–“de-virtualization”;

3. The currency without blockchain must be air currency, but there is no chain of coins or blockchain;

4. The blockchain can't change the world. If you think you have changed the world, it means your world is too small;

5. Not all transactions can be made public. Remember this sentence: “Business is secret”, so it is impossible to be a public chain;

6. The blockchain cannot be trusted without trust, but the transfer of trust; the blockchain is not a machine that creates trust, or a part.

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The following is a shorthand for the speech, published by Babbitt:

I am very happy to have this opportunity to share my personal thoughts on the blockchain research in recent times. Let's talk about the global policy first . The trend is to encourage the chain and regulate the currency. This is the basic way of development. Everyone can feel that the currency must involve the sovereignty of the central bank.

In the industrial situation , 40% of the “Fortune 500” enterprises in 2018 have begun to explore blockchain technology. Among the 7 countries with “Fortune 500”, German, French, Japanese and Swiss companies are relatively more active, and the proportion of exploration is more than Average (40%).

In the past few years, it was mainly innovative enterprises and small enterprises. Now more and more are the influx of giants. This is the general law of technological development. At the beginning, there are advantages for technology-leading companies. Nowadays, it is more advantageous for companies with scenes and channels to have data. This is a very obvious development.

Market investment and financing are continuing to be active, especially in China and the United States. The change in patents is also very fast, especially the patent application is exploding, and the two largest patent applications are China and the United States.

The same is true of the open source issue . In the past, the entire industry was led by an international standards organization. We need to pay special attention to open source.

According to my observation, if the open source 20 years ago was mainly to imitate the successful commercial software of the cottage and others, (then) today, open source has become a methodological tool to lead the entire technological innovation , we see that all emerging technology fields have influence. Open source community, open source organization.

If we think that open source is only a production mode of software, then open source is not only a production tool, but also a means of ecological competition. In the past, open source China was a kind of taker, and changing skin was called independent intellectual property. Nowadays, we are increasingly internationalizing local open source projects. From our statistics, there are at least a few hundred influential open source projects from China. This development is very obvious.

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From the application point of view, from the second half of last year to the first half of this year, I saw a very obvious change, and developed to the vertical industry. In the 2019 blockchain overall situation, I used four words to “deviate from reality” , 2018 I The description of the blockchain is "deep and hot."

Last year, some people said that the blockchain must be issued with coins. If there is no currency, it will not be called the blockchain. My point is that coins without blockchain must be air coins, but no chain of coins or blockchain . why? The essence of the currency is the self-embedded incentive mechanism.

In the past IT systems, you had to motivate those engineers to rely on the funds of the outside world, but not self-motivation. The innovation of the blockchain is that we have embedded self-incentive mechanism in the existing IT system. The public chain must have a self-incentive mechanism. Otherwise, who will pay the money? However, the alliance chain can completely do not need self-incentive, no currency is ok, not embedded in the incentive, because we can rely on external incentives.

Blockchain is not a panacea , it is just a patch in the world, not all in the blockchain, you will die worse than anyone else. Blockchain can't change the world. If you think you have changed the world, your world is too small.

This is from the US National Bureau of Standards. Everyone must remember that not all exchanges of value transactions can be made public . They are all open to the public. " Business is secret. " Remember this sentence, so it is impossible. Public chains, there will undoubtedly be the emergence of alliance chains and private chains.

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From the perspective of technical architecture, the technical architecture of the blockchain is becoming more unified, including component level, account level, consensus level, smart contracts, applications, and so on. Overall, the architecture level is converging. However, in terms of consensus, the contract has not yet begun to converge and is still spreading. Anything that is going to spread is an opportunity for the industry; whatever is going to converge is an opportunity for academics.

Nowadays, although it is called a blockchain, now the block is still that block, but the latter structure undergoes subtle changes, in addition to the chain structure, there are vertical structural blockchains, chains with graphic structures, chains of bridge structures, and dots. Chain, in essence, many aspects of improvement should be called block tree, block map, block bridge, block point is not more accurate. The block is still that block, but it is no longer a chain, which is also to optimize many problems facing the blockchain.

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General trend of industrial development

1. In terms of architecture , the integration of public and alliance chains continues to evolve. The alliance chain must definitely make money first than the public chain. The next step is definitely going to merge. It may be necessary to invent a third chain called "hybrid chain."

2. In terms of deployment , BaaS accelerates evolution. Blockchain and cloud computing were born at the same time, but for technical reasons, blockchains were not combined with cloud computing. Blockchain as a service is now a trend. How to operate and deploy blockchain in the cloud is a sure thing.

3. In terms of performance and expansion , the need for cross-chain and high performance has become increasingly prominent. If a chain is uncertain, there will be more chains; if a chain is uncertain, it will be cut into small pieces, which is the development trend.

4. On the consensus side , the consensus mechanism evolved from a single to a hybrid approach. Different blockchains use different consensus mechanisms, so we have no “consensus” on the consensus mechanism. The way to form a consensus in reality is very strange. How do you expect the blockchain to unify it? This is unrealistic. Can only be mixed.

5. In terms of contracts , pluggability and security have become the focus of development. On the whole, smart contracts are still at a relatively early stage of development, not enough "smart". Smart contracts are a critical step in contract programmability, but they are only one step away. We still have a long way to go before we can express our slightly more complicated contract procedures.

The blockchain is impossible to trust, and the blockchain only realizes the transfer of trust . We have vowed to God that it means that we believe that God is not tamperable and is a smart contract.

Later, we hope to change from trusting the trust organization to trusting the machine, so the transfer of value at any time is an intermediary that needs trust, but this time we transfer the hope of trust to the machine.

The blockchain is a machine for creating trust. I think this sentence is incomplete. It should be the component that creates the trust machine . The blockchain alone will never create a trusted machine for us. We also need big data and need Artificial intelligence and other support, because the blockchain is tamper-proof, but if the data is changed before going on the chain? It’s still time to change the chain.

Finally, a brief summary, no coin chain or blockchain, blockchain can not be trusted, it is just a transfer of trust, blockchain is not a machine to create trust, it is only a component, we are too overestimated It is up. Big data makes us believe in data, but data lie. Blockchain makes us believe in machines, and machines also scam. Artificial intelligence lets us believe in algorithms, do you really believe in algorithms, and it will kill.