BTC plunged more than 10%, the bull market ended? – Blockchain Weekly 0602

Guide

In the early morning of May 31, 2019, BTC staged "Elevator Cry".

Summary

Special Topic: Starting at 23:40 on May 30, 2019, Beijing time, the BTC price rose all the way, hitting a new high in the year, but immediately staged the "Elevator Cry". After only 15 minutes, the BTC price was hit back below 8700USDT, and the lowest hit 8010USDT. Only to stop the decline. We believe that the BTC's performance of the roller coaster market may be mainly due to the following reasons: (1) the early stage of selling the market; (2) some investors profit-taking; (3) the technical indicators deviate, the price has a callback demand. In the general market, “popping ups and downs” can be described as commonplace. If the 10% rise and fall limit of the stock market is used as a measure of “surge and plunging”, in the past 6 years, BTC has risen and fallen more than 10% in a single day, and there have been 150 occurrences. On average, there will be one every half month. The skyrocketing plunged." “Climbing and plunging” tends to occur in the late stages of the bull market and the early days of the bear market. From the first two rounds of BTC's price cycle, in the BTC price cycle, at the beginning of the bulls' bears, due to the fierce competition between the long and short sides, the uncertainty of the future market will increase, so the price of the pass will often be within one trading day. Produces a large amplitude. It is not uncommon for BTC prices to fall sharply in a short period of time. This round of BTC price up cycle has been opened so far, BTC prices have fallen and the intraday decline of more than 8% has appeared seven times.

Quotes: After the high recovery, the bull market logic remains unchanged. The total market value of digital certificates this week was 272.7 billion US dollars, an increase of about 9.2 billion compared with last week, an increase of about 9.4%; the average daily turnover was 85.77 billion US dollars, up 9.1% from last week, and the average daily turnover rate was 32.0%. , down 0.1% from last week. The current price of BTC is 8574.5 US dollars, with a weekly increase of 7.4% and a monthly increase of 58.7%. The current price of ETH is 268.1 US dollars, with a weekly increase of 7.5% and a monthly increase of 66.7%. The exchange's BTC balance this week was 800,000, an increase of 4.7 from last week. The exchange's ETH balance was 7.932 million, a decrease of 631,000 from last week. The number of BTC chips in the market increased slightly, and the amount of ETH chips decreased.

Output and heat: Both the computing power and the difficulty of mining have improved, and there has been no significant change in public attention. The difficulty of mining this week is 7.460T, which is 0.755T higher than last week. The average daily power of this week is 53.24EH/s, up 0.49EH/s from last week. The difficulty of mining this week is 2101, which is 93.792 more than last week. The average power is 165.6TH/S, which is about 0.482TH/S.

Industry: Japan's revised fund settlement algorithm was approved; WeChat revised payment agreement came into effect; EOSIO Labs released B1 wallet code for iOS and Chrome extensions.

Risk warning: regulatory policy risk, market trend risk

1 Topic: BTC plunged more than 10%, the bull market ended?

1.1 BTC "Elevator Cry"

In the early morning of May 31, 2019, Beijing time, the BTC market staged "Elevator Cry". Take the BTC price of Huobi Global Exchange as an example. At 23:40 on May 30, the price of BTC rose all the way. In less than half an hour, it rose from 8730USDT to 9064USDT, setting a new high in the year, but immediately staged "Elevator Cry" After only 15 minutes, the BTC price was hit back below 8700USDT, and at 5:30 on the 31st, the BTC price hit 8010USDT at the lowest level before stopping the decline.

1.2 Why is it “plunging”?
BTC's short-term sharp decline has undoubtedly poured a cold water on the extremely hot encryption market in the near future. So why is this BTC "plunging"? We believe that the BTC's performance of the roller coaster market may have the following main reasons:

(1) The previous period is sold out. In the downturn in 2018, many investors were deeply locked in between 8,000 and 9,000 US dollars. In May, the price of BTC rose sharply, with an increase of about 70%. Therefore, when the price of BTC went up further, the price of the investor in the previous period was soared. Drastic fluctuations.

(2) Some investors took profits. The price of BTC continued to rise after about 3 months, and the short-term has reached a relatively high level. Some of the investors who entered the market earlier were full of profits and began to take profits.

(3) The technical indicators deviate and the price has a callback demand. In late May, a number of indicators such as MACD and volume showed divergence, indicating that BTC prices have a callback demand.

1. 3 The end of the bull market? It’s not uncommon for a bull market to “plunge”

In the general market, “popping ups and downs” can be described as commonplace. Compared with the traditional financial market, there is no price limit in the secondary market of digital pass, and the price fluctuation of the pass is relatively high. As a result, the “popping ups and downs” for the traditional market can be described as commonplace in the market. If the 10% rise and fall limit of the stock market is used as a measure of “surge and plunging”, in the past 6 years, BTC has risen and fallen more than 10% in a single day, and there have been 150 occurrences. On average, there will be one every half month. The skyrocketing and plunging, including a daily increase of more than 10%, a total of 81 times, a daily decline of more than 10% a total of 69 times.

“Climbing and plunging” tends to occur in the late stages of the bull market and the early days of the bear market. From the first two rounds of BTC's price cycle, in the BTC price cycle, at the beginning of the bulls' bears, due to the fierce competition between the long and short sides, the uncertainty of the future market will increase, so the price of the pass will often be within one trading day. Produces a large amplitude.

Whether the bull market "plunges" or the bear market skyrocketing is not uncommon for BTC. Take the bull market "burst" as an example. In the bull market, when the price is close to the interval of the accumulation of a large number of sets of the previous period or the impact of major bad news, there is often a concentrated sell-off, resulting in the emergence of a "plunge" market. In the bull market, the “plunge” is often quickly digested by the large number of buying discs that appear later. The short-term decline does not affect the continued development of the bull market.

UTC time May 30, 2019, BTC's biggest decline in the day (highest price / lowest price -1) is about 8.7%, if calculated according to the largest intraday decline of 8%, during the second round of bull market ups (second round of price cycle) The upward cycle is from November 2011 to November 2013. The data in this article only covers May 2013 to November 2013. The BTC price closed down and the biggest drop in the day exceeded 8%. There were 23 times in total; the third round of bull market rose. During the period (August 2015 to December 2017), the BTC price closed down and the biggest drop in the day exceeded 8%.

This round of BTC price up cycle has been opened so far, BTC prices have fallen and the intraday decline of more than 8% has appeared seven times. Appeared on December 21, 2018, December 25, 2018, January 10, 2019, February 24, 2019, January 10, 2019, May 12, 2019, May 17, 2019 Day and May 30, 2019.

It can be seen that the short-term sharp decline of BTC is not uncommon in the bull market. In the early stage of the bull market, the BTC price may be adjusted downwards for various reasons, and the concentrated “popping and plunging” even indicates that the market has entered the most. Crazy stage.

2 Quotes: After the high recovery, the bull market logic remains unchanged

2.1 Overall market: a small increase

The total market value of digital passes this week was $272.7 billion, an increase of about $23.5 billion from last week, or about 9.4%.

The average daily trading volume of the digital pass market was 85.77 billion US dollars, up 9.1% from last week, and the average daily turnover rate was 32.0%, down 0.1% from last week.

The exchange's BTC balance this week was 800,000, an increase of 4.7 from last week. The exchange's ETH balance was 7.932 million, a decrease of 631,000 from last week. The number of BTC chips in the market increased slightly, and the amount of ETH chips decreased.

The USDT market value was $3.14 billion, a decrease of $101 million from last week. The USDT premium rate remains essentially unchanged.

2.2 Core Pass: Overall Pull

The current price of BTC is 8574.5 US dollars, with a weekly increase of 7.4% and a monthly increase of 58.7%. The average daily trading volume of BTC this week was 25.6 billion US dollars, and the average daily turnover rate was 16.9%. The BTC price rose this week, and the transaction increased slightly compared with last week.

The current price of ETH is 268.1 US dollars, with a weekly increase of 7.5% and a monthly increase of 66.7%. The average daily trading volume of ETH this week was 10.82 billion US dollars, and the average daily turnover rate was 38.4%, which was lower than last week.

EOS is currently trading at $8.51, a weekly increase of 33.0%, and a monthly decline of 78.0%. The average daily trading volume of EOS this week was 4.03 billion US dollars, and the average daily turnover rate was 57.1%. EOS was greatly affected by the good news, and this week's increase was significantly higher than the main circulation certificate.

The current price of BCH is US$445.1, up 8.8% per week, and the monthly increase is 63.7%. This week, BCH's average daily trading volume was 2.37 billion US dollars, and the average daily turnover rate was 30.6%. BCH performed slightly better this week than BTC.

The monthly volatility of the main pass increased slightly this week. The monthly volatility of BTC was 25.2%, up 0.7% from last week. The ethical volatility was 28.1%, down 0.3% from last week. The EOS monthly volatility was 33.0%. It increased by 6.4% from last week; BCH monthly volatility was 33.4%, down 2.1% from last week. The overall volatility of the market increased slightly.

2.3 Market View: Callback Does Not Change Bull Market Logic

BTC hit a new high callback. This week, the BTC continued to rise, once surpassing the $9000 mark. After the record high, there was a large correction. The current round of the market may be nearing the end and there is strong support around 8,000 US dollars.

EOS is eye-catching and pays attention to adjusting risk. This week, the main circulation certificate was pulled up simultaneously. EOS was significantly better than other passes because of the good news. The price transactions both went higher, and the short-term adjustments were made with the benefits.

The callback does not change the bull market logic. Since the beginning of this month, the digital pass has continued to rise, and the bull market has become clearer. Although there has been a recent correction, the bull market will not change its logic. Investors may consider appropriate jiacang.

3 Output and heat: calculating power and mining difficulty

Both the computing power and the difficulty of mining have improved . The difficulty of mining this week is 7.460T, which is 0.755T higher than last week. The average daily power of this week is 53.24EH/s, up 0.49EH/s from last week. The difficulty of mining this week is 2101, which is 93.792 more than last week. The average power is 165.6TH/S, which is about 0.482TH/S.

This week, Google Trends's Bitcoin entry search heat was 14, which was lower than last week. The Ethereum entry search heat was 10, unchanged from last week.

4 Industry Highlights:

Japan's revised fund settlement algorithm was approved, and the WeChat revised payment agreement came into effect.

4.1 Japan's revised fund settlement algorithm approved

According to the Nikkei News May 31 news, Japan's revised "funds algorithm" and "revised financial instruments and transactions law" (including measures to strengthen the encryption and exchange rules and exchange rules), on March 31 It was approved at the Japanese House of Lords plenary meeting in the morning. The approved bill is expected to be implemented in April 2020.

4.2 WeChat revised payment agreement takes effect

WeChat payment revised "WeChat payment service agreement", Article 12.3 added: You must not directly or disguised in Internet gambling, pornography platform, Internet sales lottery platform, illegal foreign exchange, precious metal investment trading platform, illegal securities futures trading platform, The issuance financing and virtual pass trading platform shall not be allowed to carry out asset management business through the Internet and illegal trading of bulk commodity trading places that have not obtained provincial government approvals without the approval of the regulatory authorities. Otherwise, Tenpay will have the right to terminate the payment settlement. service. The revised agreement takes effect on May 31, 2019.

4.3 EOSIO Labs releases B1 wallet code for iOS and Chrome extensions

EOSIO Labs released the reference version of the iOS and Chrome extensions app (ie the B1 wallet code). B1 said that many of their research has focused on key and password management and the EOSIO Authenticator ecosystem because the blockchain verifier as a key manager is an important part of user security and user experience. It is essential for large-scale adoption of blockchain technology. The reference version of the Authenticator application includes several key features and innovations: seamless, multi-chain support; no need to change browsing habits; enhanced application identification; rich Ricardo contract.

Source: Tongxuntong Research Institute