Encrypted currency investment: decision making is more important than correctness of results

At the beginning of the year, relatives at home entrusted Caesar to buy coins. In the case of telling the risk, let him invest a little bit. I didn’t expect that three months later, Bitcoin has finally risen nearly three times, which is even more unexpected. Yes, he actually ran into the bottom, knowing that at the beginning of the year, Caesar was quilted and could not get a penny.

The timing of choice in the investment market is simply too important and even exceeds all your efforts.

Choosing opportunities is very important, but the randomness in the market can only prove to you afterwards. It is too difficult for the judgment of investment.

Randomness is everywhere in life, including spam messages received every day, including scams such as Mark Six, and so on in financial markets:

You see, the bullish and bearish are actually 50% probability. The fraudsters found 20,000 people online, and sent 10,000 of them a bullish text message to the other 10,000 people. Regardless of the ups and downs, there will always be 10,000 people who receive the correct text message. In the second month, give 10,000 people who received the correct prediction. Of course, this time, another 5,000 people received the correct text message, and then sent text messages to these 5,000 people. Those who received the correct prediction sent a text message. After a few months, there are only 600 people on the list. But by this time, many people have been convinced of the accurate prediction of this anonymous letter. As long as there are 100 people in it, the scam will end perfectly.

In fact, such scams have been popular all over the world, and many middle classes have been looted. There is now a more enhanced version in China, which is the use of gender relations for emotional fraud, which is not discussed here.

Then you may feel that I have already known such a bad scam, and I will definitely have nothing to do with me in the future. But in fact, in the financial market, random traps are everywhere, and many times you have stepped in, but you don't realize it.

For example, when a project is promoted, it shows up on the tall, and then someone will definitely recommend you to buy their coins. After you find that you buy, you slowly find that the project is not very reliable, and the price of the currency has been falling, so people Said to hold, the team is doing things, after a period of currency price rebound, you are convinced of their project, I did not expect that the price of the currency began to fall out of the previous price, and even the project side does not need the currency The reason for the price, you will find an excuse for their falling currency price, in fact, is a self-reinforcing behavior of human beings, to find a rationality for their behavior. If you sell the currency, it is equal to directly admitting your stupidity. Obviously, you will not admit it in a short time.

You see, are you familiar with these phenomena?

Recall that these phenomena are more frequent in the bull market, and let you feel more reasonable, buy the money, the result is the same, your money will never go back. Unconsciously, you have stepped into the trap of randomness. After all, not all currencies are falling, or there are currencies rising. It has been said that Bitcoin is actually a random game, and short-term is random. Long-term is rising.

Almost all of the investment masters, including Buffett, Max, and investor Taleb, have taught us that investment is not a place to fully obey logic and order. In the financial market, casual or luck plays a huge role in our investment results. So we must learn to recognize the role of luck in the investment results in order to avoid being fooled by randomness.

From the beginning of Sharp in the 1960s to Titman in the 1990s, these professional scholars have written papers. They believe that the high-yield performance of funds in the investment market is unsustainable. In fact, the fund manager's investment performance is not higher than the average person. The person who transfers more money is just because he has been living in the industry, and then luckily one or two, without him.

Max, who is quite similar to Buffett’s investment, said:

In times of prosperity, those who take the highest risks often get the highest returns. However, this does not mean that they are the best investors. Unfortunately, few people are fully aware of this randomness or the contribution of luck to investment performance.

You are in the market, when you are making investment decisions, don't be superstitious about a master of investment, a successful person, or a project that has risen in the late stages and hurry to buy, wait for the rich, because the secret behind any success is lurking. Dangers are often underestimated.

Based on a large amount of data and experience, it shows:

First, years of currency fluctuations are essential. That is to say, the currency that crosses a bull-bear cycle is easier to survive, because only one whole cycle is broken, and the randomness is broken, so that the existence of facts can be seen clearly. For example, the recent Litecoin, which has been in full swing, has been baptized for many years. There is a group of people who hold Litecoin as believers. They can't observe the idea of ​​imitating coins in the past. Because the Litecoin community is strong, the price of coins is constantly rising, and the probability of death is second only to Bitcoin.

The second point is to recognize the uncertainty of the future. That is to say, the future is unknowable. When you make investment decisions, you should spend your time on the depth of the industry you know, rather than easily making your own decisions on future market forecasts, especially Predicting the trend, even if your prediction is correct, it does not mean that you have a strong investment ability, it may be just a few luck.

The so-called K-line gods are ruined in the long run.

The third point is to be vigilant about yourself, or the success of others, and to be fair to your own failures.

In this year, many people begin to deny their values ​​because they are vacant or lose money. Many people have either denied their ability or denied their own strategy because they have failed several times. Sometimes you don't make good investment decisions, and probably not because of your ability to invest, but because of luck.

Take Caesar, when the IEO was launched at the beginning of the year, a lot of platform coins were laid out, and the position was OKB. The strategy was correct. It was just that the luck was not good, and the currency with the smallest increase in the price of the currency was the only one. The personal judgment is still correct. After going through the air, you will regret and be annoyed, but the mentality of maintaining long-term investment will not be affected by emotions. Even if you adjust it, it is the best policy to find opportunities again.

We should not look at the results of these investment decisions from these experiences, but to find out from these decisions how your results are derived. Also don't speculate on a person's predictive ability from such a random result, but depends on how he made this decision.

The correctness of the process of decision making is more important than the correctness of the results.

Author: Bitcoin Caesar