Some people have pointed out that it is not a bull market now. His reason is that the current currency circle is mainly in the game of stock funds, and the increment of capital is very small. It can also be said that the coin circle is still playing by a group of old people, and there is no incremental user admission.
Whether the bull market is not the focus of our discussion today, this article mainly discusses where the incremental users of the future will come from.
Second, Sun Yuchen
Sun Yuchen photographed Buffett's lunch, causing an uproar in the currency circle, not only in the currency circle, but also caused a sensation in the entire financial sector and even all social news sites.
- Grayscale Fund: Institutional interest is not diminished, 84% of the capital inflows in the third quarter of this year came from non-encrypted hedge funds
- Why aren't institutional investors coming in? What are they worrying about?
- Institution Fomoing, whales enter, collect licenses, summon dragons
- Annual inventory: victory is justice? The six major mysteries in 2019
- Switzerland: Existing legislation will be adjusted to accommodate cryptocurrency regulation
- The Wall Street Journal: Why can stable coins stand out in the world of cryptocurrencies?
In terms of this matter alone, even the people of the currency circle have different opinions. Some people think that this practice is too high-profile, easy to attract the attention of the state and the government, and bring unnecessary negative impact on the development of the currency circle. Some people even think that the currency circle will be cool. Some people think that Sun Yuchen is very good at this move, which can attract the attention of a large number of people outside the currency circle, bringing a large number of incremental users to the currency circle.
Now I just just took a Buffett lunch. When I really start eating lunch, I will definitely have some hype in the style of Sun Yuchen, and this time he is not alone, but will bring a lot of people to go. People are also the shackles of the entire industry. Buffett has always been biased against Bitcoin. This time, direct dialogue with people in Bitcoin, blockchain, and digital currency circles is very contrasting. It is very topical and can attract a lot of social attention.
My friends, even those who are not very optimistic about Sun Yuchen, are basically positive about this matter. They think that no matter what they were before, Sun Yuchen is doing a good thing for the currency circle. . Although this big probability is still unable to convince Buffett, but in the future this matter will be constantly mentioned as a classic topic, and continuously bring incremental users to the currency circle.
Third, the order of magnitude difference
Although we are in the same currency circle, we know all the news and news about the currency circle. We know that there are many big things happening every day in the currency circle. Therefore, we always feel that everyone around us should know it, at least we should have heard of it. . But there is no such thing. This illusion is overestimating the current influence of the currency circle. For the entire investment community, the currency circle is now a very, very, very small area.
Let me give you an example to compare the first red man Li Xiaolai and the stock market's first red man Li Dazhao:
The currency circle is large V, Li Xiaolai, Weibo fans 520,000, the latest article comments number 10, forwarding number 29;
The stock market is big V, Li Dazhao, Weibo fans 5.3 million, the latest article comments 3476, forwarding number 368;
The two are still at least one to two orders of magnitude. To make up for this difference, the currency circle has a long way to go.
Now that we talk about incremental users, we can imagine where incremental users of the entire blockchain industry might come from?
The person who is the easiest to become an incremental user of the currency circle is the person who is a traditional mainstream investment institution.
This may not be the same as everyone's imagination, because most people think that speculative people are the most likely to increase the number of users.
Generally speaking, there is no clear distinction between investment and speculation, but the term “investment” as used herein refers to the part of the mainstream investment institutions, such as banks, insurance, securities, trusts, private placements, and asset management. Of course, it also includes some professional investors.
This part of the people has the most sensitive sense of smell, the brain is the most open, and it is easy to accept for new things. At the same time, they are most sensitive to profit rate and return on investment. When the digital currency and blockchain are new, there is such a high increase. At the time, the temptation of interest will also attract them.
Moreover, they themselves have experience and knowledge accumulation in digital currency, blockchain, and technology company investments. For example, in the CFA (Chartered Financial Analyst) exam, Bitcoin and digital currency investments have been included in the larger category of Alternative Investment, alongside gold, real estate, and antiques. In other words, as long as you are a CFA licensee, you naturally understand the digital currency, then it is not difficult to start the investment of digital currency in the currency circle.
Among this group of people, a large amount of free funds will flow into the currency circle. The financial body of its own financial institutions itself is very large, and for example, many of the listed companies of the technology listed companies have invested in the establishment of funds, and they have no restrictions on the investment of funds. On the other hand, they have many Originally also a technology practitioner, they are very interested in things like the Bitcoin Internet, so they may be more acceptable. Currently, mainstream investors in the digital currency and blockchain are all part of this group.
Although the number of these people is not too large, their funds are huge and have a huge influence. They are generally wealthy people who have achieved fame, vision and high cognition.
Of course, there are also difficulties. There are still a large number of people who have not joined the currency circle and have certain practical difficulties.
On the one hand, they generally work in mainstream financial institutions and financial institutions. These institutions have very strict requirements on the investment of funds. For example, insurance companies have requirements for investing in stock positions, and it is even less likely to invest in digital currencies. Moreover, many investment institutions LP also have time requirements for the withdrawal of funds, so if you want these financial institutions to start a large amount of investment in the currency and digital currency, it will be a long process.
Although it is long, we must also see that the acceptance of digital currency by mainstream institutions is slowly increasing. For example, we have seen many securities companies have published research reports and expressed their views on Bitcoin; for example, the well-known financial data provider Wind Info also included a number of research reports on bitcoin and digital assets.
Speculative users will be the main source of incremental users in the next few years.
All financial industries are both investors and speculators, and the two together provide sufficient liquidity for the market.
According to the survey, among the people who are currently involved in digital currency, apart from the traditional financial institution practitioners mentioned above, there are geeks and technicians, but more are retail investors transferred from the traditional investment industry, that is, we Said the speculative people. They include people who have previously speculated in stocks, futures, foreign exchange, etc., and even those who have college students, funds, and pyramid schemes, all belong to the category of speculation.
As the saying goes: "The speculators in the world are one." There are a lot of speculative people. They don't care what they are. They really care about fluctuations. As long as there are fluctuations, they are the same for them. Which target has high volatility, long trading time, and which is exciting. Then there are many people who play, and for these people, digital currency is the best target.
For them, the stock's daily ups and downs of 10% is only basic. The 24-hour rise and fall of the currency circle is enough to stimulate. Some people even feel that they are not enough. They also need to add leverage. Some people even think that the fluctuation of the currency circle is not enough. They prefer to do this so-called binary option and hundreds of times of leveraged foreign exchange. This is no different from gambling, but they don't care, as long as there are fluctuations, it will work quickly.
This part of the people should be the most easily attracted. Of course, it is not casually attracted, but also needs a good opportunity. For this group of people, the best opportunity is the bull market and skyrocketing . The current currency circle does not know how many people were attracted by the bull market and the skyrocketing in 2017. At least the current fund and MLM circles were attracted at that time.
Similarly, if you want to increase the number of speculative people in the currency circle by an order of magnitude, there is only one bull market. If the market has been cold and clear, the increase in the number of people will not be too fast.
The massive increment of users in the currency circle comes from the users just needed.
At present, there are not many blockchain projects, so there is not much demand for blockchain and digital currency in the market. Taking Bitcoin as an example, Bitcoin is a rare project in the currency circle. There is just a need for Bitcoin in the market.
For example, the current cross-border transactions of cross-border transactions and cross-border transfer are very inefficient. If you are fast, you may have a few days and weeks. If you are slow, you may have to wait for the first half of the year. The cross-border transfer of BTC is the minute and hour level. It can be said that it is very high. Not only trade, but even traveling abroad, studying abroad, you can not carry a lot of cash with you, and foreign exchange is also very troublesome, can be completely solved with digital currency.
If you really have the need to study abroad and cross-border trade, then you naturally need the digital currency, you will easily feel the efficiency of Bitcoin and become a real user.
This is only bitcoin. In the future, other public chains will land sooner or later. When the public chain falls and DAPP is pushed out on a large scale, a killer-level DAPP may bring 100,000 and a million levels to the currency circle. The traffic, that is, the hundreds of thousands of millions of incremental users for the currency circle.
And with the spread of stable currency issued by legal digital currencies and traditional institutions such as FACEBOOK, the incremental users of digital currencies will also rise.
Incremental users who just need to bring are an order of magnitude higher than the previous two . In that joke, the spread of the currency is a killer DAPP.
There is a process in the development of things. It will happen sooner or later. When the time is not ripe, there will be an urgent need.
The current currency circle seems to have been set up by the mainstream society as a "swindler", but this is no big deal. Most of the new things and new industries are considered to be fraudulent industries in the early stage.
The key is that other industries are considered to be scammers, and many people in the currency circle are really liar.
In this case, too much explanation is pale and powerless. Only a solid project is a king. Making some great projects is the best response to the "liar" people in the currency circle .
Everyone is less bragging, less air financing, less fraud and greed, together with the infrastructure construction of the blockchain industry, providing conditions for the maturity of the future public chain and the emergence of the killer DAPP, all for the currency circle. The emergence of a large number of users provides conditions.
Maybe then, when the currency circle is really mature, that is, when you are moving towards wealth freedom.
Author: Monte Carlo, This article first appeared Babbitt Information