- Libra will be a useful force in developing countries
- Facebook will pay interest to Libra holders
- Facebook Foundation will gain tremendous influence in the capital market
- The project will face regulatory uncertainty
- Some questions will be asked
- Libra is a bitcoin Trojan horse
Caitlin Long, a cryptocurrency advocate in Wyoming, shared her predictions about Facebook's upcoming cryptocurrency project “Project Libra,” explaining why it might become a bitcoin “trojan horse”.
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Facebook's cryptocurrency, now known as "Libra" (no longer as GlobalCoin as originally thought), is expected to be released on June 18.
So what is the long-term forecast?
"Predicting what @Facebook's cryptocurrency means. Pick up popcorn, I analyzed the publicly disclosed information and made six predictions, two of which are controversial (#2 and #6).- CaitlinLong (@CaitlinLong_) June 9, 2019"
1. Libra will become a beneficial force in developing countries
Libra will be promoted in developing countries where currency fluctuations are high. Long stressed that Venezuela is the most obvious example, she said:
“By providing citizens of developing countries with a more reliable value reserve than the currency they support, Facebook’s cryptocurrency will indirectly implement fiscal and monetary guidelines for developing countries – which will improve the lives of many people around the world.”
2. Facebook will pay interest to Libra holders
Long believes that if Facebook does not share interest income on assets that support this cryptocurrency, it will face strong opposition from users. Although most stable currency projects will put money into their pockets, Libra may be too big and too conspicuous to escape responsibility.
This may also highlight the Fed’s level of corporate subsidies to Bank of America, which is triggering calls for withdrawal of subsidies.
3. Facebook's foundation will gain tremendous influence in the capital market
Facebook plans to hand over Libra's control to an independent foundation it established in Switzerland. This foundation is likely to become strong in the global capital market, just as it would do as the central bank did. It will define the relative weights of the fiat currencies linked to Libra and manage those assets.
4. The project will face regulatory uncertainty
This is a positive thing because it will suddenly show how inappropriate regulations are for cryptocurrencies. Long also thinks:
“Because Facebook’s project will bring tax data to the government, can Facebook get the benefits that smaller startups don’t have from regulators?
Either way, Libra should make the rest of the cryptocurrency area clearer.
5. The question will be asked
Facebook plans to adopt a more rigorous form of KYC and AML than most cryptocurrencies. This will lead to the above-mentioned “tax data honeypot” because the government will be very keen to track the dollar's expenditure per citizen. But this is not to say that Facebook will definitely agree to provide this service.
However, Facebook has a lot of bad history in data security, it will become a topic of discussion, and now its corporate strength will expand into the currency field.
6. Libra is a bitcoin Trojan horse
Facebook's cryptocurrency will greatly promote interest and education in the field. However, Long believes that Libra will be a detour in the process of getting more adoption of Bitcoin.
Bitcoin is scarce, and Facebook's cryptocurrency is not. Over time, people will move to the most honest books to store their hard-earned wealth, not legal tender or its derivatives, including Facebook's cryptocurrency.
The same thing happened in Venezuela; when the country’s President Maduro tried to educate people to support the government’s oil coin Petro, citizens were eventually attracted to Bitcoin.