Viewpoint | What should be the blockchain's science and technology index?

The scientific and technological board that China has been promoting in recent days is in the process of review. Kechuang Board is mainly an attempt to achieve deeper integration of capital markets and technological innovation. Originally, technological innovation has the characteristics of large investment, long cycle and high risk. Therefore, the state means not to short-term financing, and directly open a technological innovation to make the big capital lead and catalyse for a long time.

Science and Technology Board hopes to learn the object is obviously the United States Nasdaq. And the regulatory authorities have made it clear that the science and technology board is an incremental reform of the capital market. this point is very important. Incremental reforms can avoid the impact on the huge stock market, and in the “new water” reform measures in a new day, quickly accumulate experience, thus helping to improve the basic system of the capital market.

Take the most concerned registration system as an example and it has been discussed in the market for many years. This time, it is clear that the pilot registration system in the science and technology board is a huge innovation for the Chinese market. The science and technology board also reflects a more inclusive and balanced concept. The capital market is a financing market and an investment market. Kechuang Board enhances the inclusiveness and adaptability of innovative enterprises through differentiated arrangements in terms of profitability and shareholding structure. At the same time, investors are also the ones that need to be concerned. On the protection of investor rights, on the one hand, Science and Technology Board should focus on the characteristics of innovative enterprises, strengthen the appropriate management of science and technology investors in terms of assets, investment experience and risk tolerance, and guide investors to participate rationally.

1 investment science board logic

Kechuang board will definitely be different from Nasdaq. For example, the valuation of Chinese A-share companies can be calculated by multiplying the net profit of one year by the price-earnings ratio; Nasdaq uses the profits of the next 12 months, 24 months, 36 months, and 48 months to conduct the business. Valuation, it is possible that a company with a temporary loss has a very high valuation. For example, WeWork, with annual sales of $1.8 billion, but also lost $1.8 billion, and the company's valuation is $40 billion, known as the second Alibaba.

The underlying logic of the science and technology enterprise is: R&D costs and market costs are huge, so losses are incurred during the investment period, but once the break-even point is crossed, the excess is all profit or even net profit. As for how to reach the critical point, it needs to be judged accurately. Kechuang board encourages enterprises to make long-term investment, and strives to innovate with the infinity of the distant standard, and the market increment should invest in such enterprises to support innovation.

The rule of the board is to allow unprofitable or loss-making enterprises to go public, but in the current situation, the declared enterprises have certain profits. When this new thing is gradually familiar to everyone, there may be some enterprises that are temporarily unprofitable but have good internal value. This is a gradual process.

At the same time, the new valuation model of Kechuang Board also puts higher demands on investors. The new valuation model is very challenging for investors. They need to understand both the primary market and the secondary market. When to exit in the secondary market, what price to withdraw, and how to withdraw, these issues have a huge impact on the return of funds in the primary market. This requires investors to have full-chain, all-weather, full-cycle investment capabilities.

The valuation logic of the company is a new proposition for many investment institutions, and it is necessary to explore how to value low-profit, unprofitable companies. In the future, all investors or investment institutions must have the ability to reconstruct the valuation model of technology-based enterprises. Whoever first grasps the cognitive dividend will master the ability to cast the next Amazon Tesla .

The entire capital market is essentially a process of chasing cognitive dividends. Any investment that has to rise must be the result of more people continuing to invest and buying at a higher price.

This is why we have never seen a market where the logic of most people earning money: a few people see the essence, a few people build cognition, most people chase the phenomenon, and most people embrace the bubble.

If everyone determines that a company is worth 1 billion, how can investors make money? You think, a market is like most people think about it, then there is still something that may generate upward momentum, and it must be falling. Only people think that this company is not worth 100 million. You think he is worth, invest in it, and finally the market proves that he is worth 3 billion to earn money. Institutions with a dollar investment background in the science and technology investment will be more advantageous because they are more likely to perceive the valuation logic of the future science and technology board.

Science and Technology Board is like a "safe version" of the digital currency market, a more market-oriented GEM.

For individual investors in Science and Technology, the main possibility is to manage assets by entrusting professional institutions. Because the professionalism and risk of the investment in Science and Technology Investment Bank is completely different from the investment logic of the A-share market, and find excellent suitable enterprises, market evaluation, valuation model establishment, professional analysis and thinking, these pairs It is very difficult for individual investors. In addition, as a new standard, Kechuang board is more suitable for the full chain investment layout, that is, the combination logic of the primary market, the secondary market and the first-half market.

What are we talking about when we talk about the Science and Technology Edition? It is about the ability of the market to support technological innovation.

2 The ultimate battlefield of technological innovation

We look at the development of the Internet. Since Microsoft released the Windows system in 1983, we have seen that the first monopolistic closed-loop system has occupied the entire market for a long time. Until 1991, Tovars launched one of the greatest sports "open source movement" and made the first open source system "linux" in human history. Towaz said to all users: "You can use it at will. Linux, but you have to pass the same freedom, and you must disclose your modified code for free."

Towaz pioneered the open source movement as a precedent. It was because of the open source code movement that a new world of "everyone is for me, I am for everyone" was opened.

In fact, at the beginning of the birth of the Internet, another person played a decisive role, the father of the World Wide Web, Tim Berners-Lee. According to an article in the World Wide Web Foundation website, at the time, every computer in the center stored different information. If researchers want to obtain specific information, they must log in to the corresponding computer to complete, so "you sometimes have to learn." Using different programs on each computer, many times this is not as efficient as face-to-face communication when drinking coffee." Berners-Le saw the solution: Many computers have been connected via the Internet. Why not share information through a technology called hypertext?

In 1989, Berners-Lee submitted a document entitled "Recommendations on Information Management" to his superiors, which contained his vision for building a more convenient information transmission system. Many of the core concepts and the subsequent World Wide Web were very Close, but the response from the boss is: "Unclear but exciting." This document is seen as the starting point for the World Wide Web. Berners-Lee said at the event on the 12th: "At the time, I thought that a good network system should be able to run on all computers, and versatility is the main principle."

Although not recognized, he insisted on his own "small project" and eventually invented three basic technologies that are still essential to the World Wide Web: Hypertext Markup Language (html), Hypertext Transfer Protocol (http), and Uniform Resources. Locator (URL). He also created the first web browser and the first web server. At the end of 1990, the first web page appeared on the Internet, and the influence of the World Wide Web began to spread.

But this is not the most important thing. The most important thing is that in order to make the World Wide Web more popular, Berners-Lee has not used new technology to obtain wealth. With his joint efforts with others, the CERN finally agreed to make the technology available to the public for free forever. Driven by the World Wide Web, a new interconnected chapter is opened globally. According to the World Wide Web Foundation, by 2019, the 30th anniversary of the birth of the World Wide Web, three out of every five people in the world use the World Wide Web.

Without the value of inclusiveness, an open agreement cannot be born. Without an open agreement, it is impossible to create all the technologies that change our lives today.

By 2007, Apple released the first Iphone phone, which gradually formed a closed loop system for IOS. In addition to Apple, there are BlackBerry operating systems, Plam and other well-known systems are closed-source closed loop. In the same year, Google formed the mobile phone open alliance Android, and invited HTC, LG, Samsung, Huawei and other mobile phone manufacturers to join their ecology. After that, the world's mobile Internet ecosystem was born.

Now, the greatest World War I and World War II in the Internet world, World War I was a war between Linux and Windows in the early 1990s, and World War II was the war between Android and Apple IOS in the late 00s, and the core of these two wars was " Open source."

In fact, since the birth of the Internet, the open source war has not stopped, but under the original rules, open source does not occupy any advantage. In the world of the Internet, the underlying protocol value has been minimized. For example, the World Wide Web we see today is a very valuable agreement, it is like water and air. But everyone thinks that the Internet's valuable products are not expected to be the first to think of the World Wide Web. Instead, it will be an application like WeChat and Taobao.

In the Internet, the sharing protocols (TCP/IP, HTTP, SMTP, etc.) actually produce immeasurable value, but most of them are captured in the form of data and re-aggregated at the application layer, such as Google, Uber, Airbnb. . In other words, the Internet Protocol cannot obtain economic value through the network, but through the application.

For example, the maternal algorithm of vibrato, when you have seen a video or praised a video, actually entered the algorithm system of vibrato, and always recommended relevant content to you. Today, such a model has become very common. Of course, the maternal algorithm of the Byte Beat Group product is currently the best, which is why they have the qualification to fight with Tencent.

These algorithms learn through human contribution behavior data, which is owned by the Internet company. In fact, data is the main asset of Internet companies. That's why these Internet companies are valued. It was not until the emergence of the blockchain new thing that the open source war turned out to be a turning point.

In the blockchain, the original "data" has become a shared data layer and has been turned into a digital currency for circulation. The essence of digital currency is the data circulating in the P2P network, which exchanges data through the data layer to generate value. On the one hand, the value model of the blockchain itself is the open sharing of data, which has formed a dimensionality reduction on the Internet. On the other hand, the digital currency itself can be used to access the P2P network service, which can form an incentive scheme to promote value circulation.

Because the blockchain has digital currency, it can produce an economic system that matches its technological innovation. When there are enough human groups to recognize the governance behavior generated by the P2P machine network, a "consensus" is born.

From the development history of the entire Internet, we are at the turning point of a machine network. The turning point is that the Internet has moved from the consumer market to the industrial market, that is, from the 2C to the 2B. The blockchain is moving from the private chain and the alliance chain to the public chain, that is, from the 2B end to the 2C end.

As I said in the article " The Meaning of a Huawei behind the United States" , history once again proves that the advancement of science and technology throughout the human world is a by-product of the "open source movement" and "encryption movement." In the next five to seven years, we will face the third comprehensive war in the Internet world. The core of this war is still "open source", and the protagonist will become the "blockchain agreement" and "internet application". The struggle, but the ending, was written at the beginning of the story.

The value behind technological innovation is the formation of standards, and only agreements can form standards. A network protocol that wants to reach a wide range of people must have a consensus. Behind the consensus means that everyone is a participant and a contributor, and ultimately a value occupant, and must move toward open source and encryption.

Behind open source and encryption is not just the concept of a certain group, but the direction that the entire human community ultimately needs to face. This direction is both a value and an ideology. It is this value and ideology that points to the ultimate battlefield of human technological innovation.

This ultimate battlefield is called civilization. The final birth of technological innovation will be the machine civilization that the entire human community needs to face as a species.

3 blockchain science and technology board index

Back to the blockchain's science and technology index, Bitcoin is the Shanghai Composite Index, and Ethereum is the logic of the GEM index. So what kind of project will be the Science and Technology Board Index?

As we have already said, in the blockchain, what is really valuable is the protocol, and the essence of the blockchain is to transform human behavior data into a shared data layer for value exchange. Ethereum is a global computer. The real value is to make a global inclusive bottom blockchain system to set standards and exchange all agreements. It is precisely because of this that it can become the “GEM Index” of the blockchain.

At the beginning of this year, we have seen a new generation of hidden coins Grim. Many investment institutions told me that they are very optimistic about this project and think it is Bitcoin 2.0. I smiled at the time. Privacy is very important, and privacy is entirely accompanied by encryption movements. But privacy should belong to the generality of the blockchain, not the characteristics of a certain digital currency or public chain. The difference is nothing more than who is doing more privacy.

For most people, privacy is very important. But absolute concealment does not seem to be a major requirement.

The founder of Ethereum, V God, also said last month that he is learning Zcash's privacy features. This not only illustrates the versatility of privacy, but also represents the single-point ability that is very easy to be more "consensus". Chain absorption. Then we saw the fragmentary chain represented by Zilliqa last year, and also saw the cross-chain public chain represented by Cosmos and Polkadot. Will these public chains lead the trend?

Fragmentation and cross-chaining are one of the necessary and sufficient capabilities of the underlying system, and the public chain forming a single-point capability will be absorbed by the underlying public chain with broad consensus.

In the previous article, we have already said why the Internet and the blockchain are essentially different, and the essential difference is the "value orientation" of the protocol and application, whether the data is "encrypted and shared" and "open source." In the blockchain, the single-point capability is like a species in the Earth's ecosystem, and the underlying public chain is like the Earth itself. It hatches both this species and the derivatization of this species. It also includes the fact that this species is within its ecology and becomes a state in which you have me and me.

Including the recent fiery Defi, will be one of the important ecosystem capabilities of the underlying public chain. So we can understand that the projects that form these single-point capabilities are attached to the existence, growth, and reproduction of the underlying public chain. Like plants, the earth provides soil and air, and plants naturally evolve.

Therefore, these projects are all one of the "GEM" projects, and will not become "knowledge boards."

What should the real science and technology board index be? The answer is actually obvious.

Please click on the settings of your mobile phone to find the rights management in the application. The answer is coming out. In my mobile phone, the application software that called “storage function” reached 72%, 70% of the application software that called “location information function”, 50% of the “camera function” was called, and “microphone function” was called. There are only 40 applications that have only one application called "body sensor function". The rest belong to the operating system permissions.

Why do we need to understand "permissions"? Because in the blockchain, these features will become the underlying application protocol.

Why did the various projects that appeared in the big bull market in 2017 fail to land or disappear in the end, the core is at two points, one Ethereum as the underlying system public chain has not yet reached the distribution agreement, and the other, The underlying application protocol public chain has not yet been born.

Now everyone understands why Filecoin, the blockchain project for IPFS, a decentralized storage protocol, will appear in 2017. Of course, IPFS is not successful now, and the most important one is not a technical temporary bottleneck, which is in the application scenario. When 5G has already appeared, why do we still need to decentralize storage? Is it because of the larger files? Or is there a private content that you don't want to be discovered and cracked by anyone? This is a problem that needs to be considered in decentralized storage projects such as IPFS and BTT.

The most important point is that decentralized storage does not have any ecological derivative capabilities. So it will be very valuable but may not be an "index."

Looking at the camera function, the camera function can be understood as a decentralized "image video protocol" in the blockchain. But why we didn't see a similar public chain born, because such a decentralization protocol needs to be supported by a very powerful hardware system upgrade. For example, after the birth of 5G, smart devices such as AR and VR can bring new Interactively do human behavior data entry. This is a project that needs to be connected to the IOT IoT. For now, the hardware system is far from reaching this level.

The game public chain is actually a similar principle, the essence of which is the decentralized "image and video protocol." From the perspective of the development of the entire Internet, the game changes are accompanied by the upgrade of the hardware system, such as from the earliest Tetris to the Snake game and card game in the PC, to the stand-alone version of Xian Jianqi. Xia Chuan, then to the network of Red Alert, World of Warcraft, and then to the king of the mobile glory, eat chicken. These are accompanied by changes in the way interactions are brought about by hardware system upgrades. The game public chain will not be a simple system, but should be a major upgrade with the interactive approach. For example, the Pokemon go of the blockchain will appear along with the intelligent hardware upgrade of AR and VR.

As I said in "The Significance of a Huawei Hard Bar behind the United States," who first found the next generation of revolutionary interactions who will occupy the commanding heights of intelligent hardware in the 5G era. Only when these hardware systems appear, the decentralized "image and video protocol" is only possible. And this time is still too early.

Calling the "microphone function" in the blockchain is the decentralized "language protocol", which is likely to be generated under the existing hardware devices and has certain versatility. For example, the translation machine of the University of Science and Technology is a typical Language agreement mining machine. In addition, at least 40% of the application software calls this feature, which means that it is possible to generate a derivative ecosystem. It is also very valuable to be able to make the decentralized "language agreement" first. The only thing that is possible is that the ecology it may derive is not prosperous.

But it is likely that in the future blockchain, application public chains or Dapps like New Oriental, VIPKIDS, Google Translate, Himalayan or Signal (Private Voice Call) will be built on it. A rough calculation of the total market value of these Internet projects can roughly estimate the extent to which the value of such a "language agreement"-based underlying application public chain can go in the future.

Finally, we look at calling the "location information function". In the blockchain, this is the decentralized "space protocol." At least 70% of the application software calls this ability, and Google Maps, for example, has more than 1 million APP applications, including all walks of life. Moreover, the map itself is a platform with both 2B and 2C. Taking the 2B as an example, various commercial organizations, government departments, Internet APPs, and websites all need to access the map through the API interface of the map. It covers almost all hardware systems and software systems in the history of the Internet.

Taking the 2C end as an example, the number of calls to Google Maps about location information is close to 1 trillion times/day. Has the number of times the largest platform in the world is called. The amount of data involved is also the most comprehensive and largest of all platforms. In essence, the decentralization is based on the natural dispersion of human activities.

In the future blockchain, WeChat, Momo, Ctrip.com, public comment, US group take-out, Uber, Airbnb application chain or Dapp will be generated based on it. By simply calculating the total valuation of the application software associated with the "location information function" in the Internet world, you can roughly estimate how much the total market value of such a map public link with a "decentralized space protocol" will be.

The entire mobile Internet is a network generated by smartphones based on “centralized spatial protocols”, and the human behavior data involved is the most extensive. As mentioned earlier, the nature of blockchain is the exchange of values ​​for human behavior "shared data." This means that the decentralized protocol with the most extensive data exchange for human behavior will be the largest underlying.

The map public chain will become the lowest-level application public chain, and will also produce the most widely shared human data "shared data layer." This means that it is most likely to become the "knowledge board index" of the blockchain world.

In the next round of bull markets, we will see the rise of the map public chain around the world.

Author: Kai Luo Kai

Source: Kelvin Story