Recently, friends of relevant departments asked me to talk about Facebook's issue of digital stable currency. This is a very serious matter, but there are too few people who really understand what is going on. I will talk in the vernacular.
In the eyes of the Chinese, Alipay and WeChat are already giants, and they have little to do with what they want to do. But Facebook users are 2-3 times more than the two combined, reaching 2.7 billion at the end of last year.
Such a super giant will issue an encrypted digital currency to the population of twice the world in China by 2020, codenamed "Libra." And the design goal of this currency is very clear:
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First, there is no borders.
Second, there is no handling fee.
So far, all human trading theories and financial innovations have failed to achieve these two goals, but Facebook is prepared to do so.
Not only that, it is also preparing to pull these payment companies: VISA, MasterCard, PayPal and third-party aggregation payment tool Stripe (the latest valuation is $ 23 billion). There are also three home appliance companies: mobile phone company Uber, travel booking website Booking.com and Argentine e-commerce website MercadoLibre.
These companies will all join the Scorpio plan as a credit node.
What is a credit node?
This is like a bank transfer system. Now the bank is using a protocol called SWIFT that allows banks to communicate and efficiently complete various transactions, each of which is a credit node. Facebook is building a distributed blockchain network, and the above companies are similar to the role of banks. This kind of node will pay Facebook $10 million in operating expenses each year.
The $10 million is a good deal for these giants because they will be the core of the world's most powerful digital credit system.
I believe that Tencent and Ali are very nervous now, and China's regulatory authorities are also very nervous.
Because borderless means that cross-border supervision is impossible, and no handling fee means Alipay and WeChat wallet will be dealt a heavy blow, followed by the subversion of e-commerce payment model.
Ali and Tencent like to use the Internet model to reduce the impact on traditional industries. Facebook uses blockchain technology to reduce profits against Ali and Tencent.
So the question is, Ali, Tencent is joining the Facebook system, or is it a self-reliant portal?
If you join the Facebook system, then it is not to give valuable Chinese traffic surrender to others, but also lost the digital currency sovereignty. If you stand on your own, China’s size is still not big enough to be a second child. There is no second child on the Internet, and it is more difficult to have a blockchain.
This is not only a sovereign issue, but also a hegemonic issue.
We noticed two trends:
First, the digital stable currency issued by Facebook will be linked to a basket of legal tender. Some people will say, how good is this, is it not from the dollar? This idea is very naive. Looking at the first wholesale company, basically all American companies, meaning that users are Americans, which means that the legal currency must be mainly in US dollars. The renminbi may also have weight, but how poor the Chinese users are, how can they be compared?
At present, the mainstream of digital currency is Bitcoin and Ethereum. They are an ecological ecology and are not necessarily related to the US dollar. But Facebook's digital stable currency means that the dollar credit is directly introduced into the blockchain world and becomes the pricing basis for global digital credit. In other words, digital credit will become an extension of dollar credit. This is in line with the fact that oil is priced in dollars.
Second, Facebook has been discussing regulatory issues related to regulatory authorities in the United States. Although some details have not been disclosed, this suggests that the world's largest digital money plan will first meet the requirements of US regulatory authorities, and these requirements will be included as rules of the game in the foundation governance rules established in Geneva. Blockchain code. US regulatory authorities will achieve indirect jurisdiction over digital currencies.
The above two things will lay the digital hegemony of the dollar.
This digital hegemony is not the communication hegemony pointed to by 5G, but a new generation of financial hegemony based on digital credit.
Hegemony, I didn't like it very much. My college days have grown into the best period of Sino-US relations. It is also a period of booming Internet economy. Do you talk about hegemony with young people like me? That is an outdated thing.
However, Sino-US trade wars and sanctions against Huawei have made people like me awakened. This world is still the law of the jungle, and the conspiracy of conspiracy is used interchangeably. Hegemony has never stopped.
Facebook, a digital currency plan, is not a blizzard. It has long been rumored that its goal is to "strongly replace the sovereign currencies of fragile states." The good thing is to "help fragile states build better payment systems."
The hegemony of the United States is not just military, but the dollar and the Internet. As long as the contract signed in US dollars can be subject to US jurisdiction, as long as the data stored on the US server can be monitored, even if you are open source, open banner is useless.
This is the long arm of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. But what about embarrassing, Americans hold the core rules and techniques, no one will take the initiative to give up this power, you still have to eat.
Digital credit hegemony may fall into the hands of Americans again.
Some people say that Facebook will also seriously impact the traditional financial system of the United States.
Of course, no central bank in any country can do this because it is a shock to sovereign currency, and this is also a terrible thing for Americans. Since the beginning of Bitcoin, Wall Street has differentiated a group of vested interests in digital currency. Without their support, Facebook does not dare to do it.
Wall Street’s ambitions in digital currency are not a day or two. Similar encryption and stabilization coins have been tried many times. This large-scale launch is not without warning. Since the ban on the release of digital currency ads last year, Facebook has been relaxing the relevant restrictions until it is said that it is going to issue coins. It is estimated that the layout will begin in 2017.
But on the other side of the Pacific Ocean, China's blockchain industry is in a large-scale rectification because of the scams. The central bank is also exploring stable currency issuance, but how can it subvert itself and write up research reports at most. At present, the most mature digital credit is Sesame Credit, but Sesame Credit is still based on traditional centralized technology, lacking openness and difficult to transform into a distributed credit system.
Tencent Ali Baidu Jingdong US Mission… Whether these Chinese giants can join hands is still a mystery. It is also unclear whether the central bank will dare to let go of a little innovation. But what is certain is that there is no chance of winning in singles.
So can we isolate Facebook? If you know that the cost of Chinese companies paying Facebook to $5 billion last year, you understand that this is an irresistible trend.
From the Internet to the digital upgrade path, digital credit is the most important infrastructure like 5G. This invisible thing is the most difficult for the Chinese.
Tencent Ali is still in the life of the traditional industry, Facebook has quietly settled behind the profits.
螳螂 蝉, the oriole is behind.