June 19th market analysis: BTC to the top?

This article does not constitute any investment advice, investment is risky, and you need to be cautious when entering the market!

On November 25th, 2018, I sent a message, "Is Bitcoin in the End (November 25th)"? The public news of this article can be seen, and the possibility of bottoming out is raised. Fortunately, BTC arrives soon after. At the bottom of more than 3,100 US dollars, I hope that this time can have good luck.

After this analysis, I will not analyze the market.

In the last article, I mentioned that this bull market logic is a financial bull market. It is a BTC rise caused by global funds and capital allocation assets. Since this is the case, then this round of bull market will be analyzed according to their traditional financial methods. Recently, BTC has the following Features:

1. Open the BTC's weekly line. It can be clearly seen that BTC has been in a state of decline in 2018. Generally speaking, this year's rise is the rebound of the downturn after the bubble burst last year. Analysis of the rebound, there is a very common indicator – the Chibonacci retracement line. In the callback line, Fibonacci positions 38.2%, 50% and 61.8% are all concerned by financial analysts and may even lead to concerted action. At present, BTC's Fibonacci position is 38.2%, which is $9441. This position can be regarded as the first resistance level of the rebound. Now BTC has arrived. Note that financial analysis is often an indicative location, with hundreds of dollars up and down $9441 being normal.


2, reference to the NASDAQ 2000 bubble, is also a technology bubble, very similar to this time. At that time, Nasdaq burst from the highest point of 5132, falling to a minimum of 1108, corresponding to the Fibonacci position of 38.2%, which was 2645. So when the Nasdaq’s lowest point began to rebound, how many points ended? It is 2861 points! Only 8% difference from 2645 points.

3. According to the wave theory, if the A wave is counted in 2018, then this year's rise is the rebound wave B wave after the big drop. According to the wave theory rule, if the follow-up success comes to a C wave, then basically the BTC will be zero. Therefore, I tend to be the beginning of the new bull market, which makes the big rebound in 2019 become the first wave of the next bull market. According to the wave theory, the upcoming 2 wave callback adjustment, and the characteristics of the 2 wave callback is The depth is large, and the psychological blow is relatively large, so that investors can feel that the bear market has not ended yet, and then the bull market is rapidly rising.

4. Looking at the global stock market, such as Nasdaq and A-shares, has stopped rising, and some index trends have begun to fall. Looking at the commodity market, such as crude oil and copper, it has experienced a big drop in the second quarter. There are already signs of insufficient funding for global follow-up funding.

5. U.S. regulation has become stricter. The currency security, small B network, and even the domestic gateway have all removed a lot of currencies. The mainstream media of the currency circle intentionally or unintentionally weakened this matter. In fact, the impact of such supervision on the currency circle Very large, the United States is not only a large amount of funds, but also the significance of being a leader in regulation. After that, countries are likely to refer to implementation.

6. Purely from the technical indicators, the BTC weekly RSI has been topped for several weeks, rare in history, and has a strong callback demand.

7. Looking at the MACD of the BTC daily line, the current rise has initially formed a daily divergence level, but it has not been confirmed. Unless it is pulled out continuously, it can be eliminated. Therefore, the depth of this deviation is relatively large, and the subsequent confirmation is final. The possibility is higher.

8. So far, there have been no breakthrough new technologies in the currency circle, and no fundamentals have been formed in the bull market. The funds are mainly in speculative assets, not investment.

All of the above feel that the temptation of BTC at this price is gradually decreasing, but I still can't say that this is the top, because the bull market does not say the top, as an ordinary investor, try to trade on the right side, and then go out and wait. Forecasting transactions on the left requires a lot of luck and knowledge. On the other hand, optimism says that even a large probability of a sharp fall is a normal bull market adjustment.

Remember to stay in the market for awe!

About the author: East of Beijing, public number: bjzdblockchain. Micro signal: beijingzhidong. Senior blockchain investor, engaged in technical research work.

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