Editor's note: Recently, Facebook released the Libra white paper on the encrypted digital currency project, which sparked discussions from all walks of life. Dr. Chen Bo, the proponent of the blockchain consensus economic theory, collected opinions and suggestions from various circles and put forward his own opinions. In his view, we can think that Libra is Zuckerberg's ultimate solution to the Internet enterprise growth and data privacy dilemma, a large-scale technology and business model upgrade, and this demonstration effect is very strong.
After Facebook’s encryption of digital currency Libra came out, we have been waiting to see, one is to collect and judge the response of the world’s major institutions, and the other is to read thousands of messages from the previous 100,000+ articles and pick out valuable suggestions. .
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Sure enough, all the cows and ghosts came out.
To do intelligence analysis, we must learn to see the micro-knowledge, like the police to solve the case to extract subtle clues from the complex environment and establish a logical chain.
No matter how noisy the cows and gods, we are most concerned about information from three aspects.
The first information comes from the Federal Reserve. It is really unintentional for Fed Chairman Powell to jump out and speak for the first time, but his words are the most important. Powell clearly expressed two messages: First, Facebook cryptocurrency does not pose any threat to the US dollar, the Fed does not object; Second, I have no jurisdiction over the payment system, but we have been supporting the technological innovation of the payment system.
When this came out, I hit a lot of people's faces. Those who think they will firmly oppose the Fed can turn off the fire.
Not only did not object, Powell also passed an implicit message, he said: cryptocurrency is still in infancy, I believe that Facebook has been in close communication with national regulatory agencies…
The Fed chairman gave Libra a caring and encouragement like a relative.
From this information we can further judge: As the US group Wang Xing predicted, Libra has already formed a conspiracy with the Fed, the world's largest monetary authority.
In fact, if you are Zuckerberg, you will definitely do the same.
The second piece of information comes from the banking industry in the United States. There are two parts to Libra's direct impact, one is the currency issue and the other is the payment system. The Fed, which is responsible for currency issuance, is no longer a major obstacle. The payment system represented by banks is the second obstacle and the main challenge facing Facebook.
The opposition of the banking industry is bound to be the strongest. This is within the pre-judgment. The Senate will soon hold a hearing.
I am listening to many hearings in the United States, and don’t think of the hearing as a terrible thing. This is like our project feasibility demonstration. Everyone has different opinions. Many opinions are not professional, but they need a formal response and promotion process. There are also routines for American companies to cope with hearings. When Xiaozha is most lonely, he can sneak past. What is this?
We judge that the banking industry will eventually compromise, because there are a large number of mainstream payment institutions that have joined Libra. These payment institutions are the traffic portals of the banking industry, and their access has actually been coerced on behalf of the banking industry.
It also reflects the cleverness of Xiaozha. I don't want to move your huge body, but I hold your throat and let you move your limbs.
So far, apart from a few politicians, we have not seen any bank clearly stand up against it. Everyone is not stupid. They are all wage earners and leave a way for themselves.
There will be rebellion in the banking industry, but in the end it will also lead to collusion. Dissolving the banking industry interest alliance is much easier than imagined, but it is not anxious.
The third information comes from China's Internet giants Tencent and Ali. The two statements are very interesting. First, Ma Huateng’s technique in the circle of friends is not a problem. It’s all about supervision, and then Ali’s statement will never be issued.
Oh, don't forget that Facebook banned all digital currency advertising a year ago.
The two statements have one thing in common, that is, to scream at the supervisory level, to be loyal and to push responsibility. It’s not that I can’t do it, the technology is fine. If you don’t let me do it, I won’t do it. You can let me do it.
Chinese-style network communication art should be carefully understood.
However, even the Internet giants are in such awkward state, which is really worrying. Americans are accelerating the incubation of a global digital credit giant, and we are still pinching.
The cognition level of some Chinese officials has remained at the level of ten years ago. Fire-fighting is the responsibility, and there is no rule to balance financial innovation and risk management. Some mainstream people are still struggling to think about whether the blockchain is the best choice for humans. They work really hard, but they have been on the high for too long, and they don't know that the world is changing.
Combined with the current public and non-public sources of information, we can confidently give the following judgments:
First, the Fed has reached an initial understanding and collusion with Facebook, and these implicit agreements will become part of the Libra program.
Second, for the difficult bones of the banking industry, Facebook adopts a curve strategy. The first step is to seize the traffic portal of the third-party payment institution. The second step is to gradually dismantle the banking industry interest alliance through the payment institution, and the collusion with the banking industry will sooner or later. Achieved.
Third, Libra's plan will leave a channel for securitization for Wall Street, and investment banks will join the alliance faster. There is no bottom line for investment banking in the face of interests.
Fourth, for the promotion of the international market, avoiding the strong supervision of China and other countries, first pinch the soft persimmon (Wang Xingyu).
Please note that my collusion here is a neutral word, it is an interest alliance, not a conspiracy theory. But I also do not reject conspiracy theories. This world was originally a conspiracy and conspiracy.
With the above judgment, we have to think further about why Facebook is taking risks to do this? There is a simple logic behind any economic phenomenon. What is the simple logic behind Facebook?
To answer this question, at least ten years before.
A few days ago, I just visited a famous professor. When talking about the Sino-US trade war, ta mentioned a phenomenon: the past decade of the United States is a decade of manufacturing clearance, and a decade of information industry carnival, but the decline of the information industry has been obvious since last year.
Looking back at the economic crisis of 2008, I just graduated from work abroad and didn't feel anything about the economic cycle, but then I slowly felt the power of the economic cycle.
In the past decade, the United States has relied on a number of technology companies such as Apple, Facebook, and Amazon to harvest global wealth. However, with the decline in smartphone sales and the slow growth of Internet users, these companies are facing growth difficulties.
For capital, not growing means death.
Precipitated 2.7 billion users, how to realize in addition to advertising?
In fact, Facebook has gone a lot of detours on the road to cash, and encountered a huge obstacle, that is, user data privacy.
Under the existing Internet business model, if you want to cash out, you must touch the privacy of user data, which is almost no solution. The data protection bill in Europe and the United States has blocked this road. Considering the Cambridge data breach in previous years, Xiaozha could not take this risk anymore.
However, it should be noted that the data of our Chinese users is almost transparent. There is a data sharing alliance between Internet companies. When you click on a news on this app, another app will push you relevant ads. .
They said they have been desensitized. Who knows?
It can be said that we may not know more about ourselves than Internet companies.
Not only Facebook, but all Internet companies, big, medium and small, face the same problem: the traffic is not enough, the traffic is too expensive.
How to solve this problem in China's Internet giants?
For example, the situation that many friends have encountered recently.
If you are a small and medium-sized enterprise in the education, beauty or automotive service industry, you have accumulated tens of thousands of quality users for more than a decade, but the growth is difficult. At this time, an Internet giant came to the door and said to you:
"Brother, I am telling you something about your heart. You can't get the city, you can't make money, let's make a data interface for you. You share data with us. We give you a user portrait and push it accurately. Advertising, give you a white strip, and earn a hand."
As you think, there is such a good thing in the world, the Internet giant has even found me to cooperate, I am also a technology company, and my face is really face.
Then you are ready to go.
What happened to this process? User data was deposited to the giants with almost no cost. This is a quality user who has worked hard to accumulate, and it has been deposited several times before others. I really thought that I could make a fortune by white bars and advertisements.
This model is called "virtual acquisition." What is the acquisition? It is not a shareholding, nor a commodity service. These things are worthless in the eyes of Internet companies, and they are acquired as "data assets."
Internet companies are doing this hard, because China's data privacy protection is still too far, almost the price of cabbage.
So what is the user's data used for? Used to establish a digital credit system. The so-called user portrait is your digital credit, based on this credit to push you advertising, white label approval, loan issuance and so on.
The situation in China is so much first, we continue to talk about Facebook.
For the user data Facebook is not afraid to touch, then what should I do?
Since the data is ultimately used to build a digital credit system, it is better to pull a banner directly.
How to do it? Make a payment. You twist and pinch white bars and consumer loans, let's pay directly.
How to do it? Pull a bunch of brothers together.
What do the brothers do not trust? Use the blockchain.
Is the technology mature? Ma Huateng said that the technology is no problem.
What about regulation? Pinch the soft persimmon.
What should I do if I am blocked? We engage in 100 nodes, who dares to seal it all!
So far, all the walls are based on Internet technology. For the blockchain chain, the regulatory authorities around the world have not yet developed the corresponding blocking technology. They can only intimidate the small shrimps.
The key is that the most blocked Americans have no intention of blocking. At most, they are asking for a small tie. Can you wait for us, let us further demonstrate the argument.
In fact, it can't be blocked. Facebook can't go up, there are 99 nodes to log in at random, you have to block all, you can only disconnect the network. Domestic users are prohibited from using? Are anonymous, how to ban it?
Do not agree, you have to let me see the consequences of disagreement? Regulators around the world will face such awkward situations.
This means that the blockchain network, although built on the Internet, is essentially a relatively independent Internet ecosystem and a higher-level building.
You turn a blind eye, then it is my world.
Therefore, we can think of Libra as Zuckerberg's ultimate solution to the Internet enterprise growth and data privacy dilemma, a large-scale technology and business model upgrade. This demonstration effect is very strong.
But is the story over here?
No, just started. Facebook just opened a door and there is a vast new world behind it.
This new world is the era of intelligence.
I don't know if you noticed it. Many people in China talked about the digital economy, but only Ali proposed the smart economy.
This is the extraordinary place of Ma Yun. The average person only sees 5G and artificial intelligence, and Ma Yun sees the broad future of digital credit. He is an era earlier than most people.
Sesame credit has been laid out very early, and now it has quietly penetrated into many fields, like an invisible hand affecting the lives of ordinary people.
Just as Huawei can play the role of the 5G leader, Sesame Credit is the only opponent that is likely to compete with Libra. From this point of view, perhaps Ali's words will never be issued, and it is also a confident display.
In my opinion, digital credit is a key channel for digital and intelligent links, and digital currency is the highest form of digital credit.
This is because data assets are too heavy, and the cost of storage and operation is too high. It has seriously affected the process of digitization and intelligence. Only digital credits that are converted into lightweight are truly commercially valuable.
This year, our team surveyed hundreds of artificial intelligence companies and found that data costs have begun to greatly limit the development of this industry, which has accounted for more than 60% of the cost of many enterprises.
Who can use the cheaper technology or model to capitalize and lighten data, who can truly build the core competitiveness of the era of intelligent economy, and only if it can not touch the red line of data protection.
Although artificial intelligence technology reduces the cost of the algorithm, the data cost consumed is too high, and the data privacy problem is generally involved. It is difficult to drive the intelligent transformation alone.
From Internetization to blockchaining, it is not Zuckerberg's personal sentiments, but the optimal solution that the Internet giant has given after evaluating various possibilities.
Although there are many obstacles, I think these difficulties will be overcome and people will finally have a new era of intelligent digital credit drive.
We predict that 5G, artificial intelligence and digital credit will constitute the three pillars of the smart economy. The development level of the digital credit system will determine the commercial value of 5G investment, and the Internet will be downgraded to the infrastructure in the infrastructure.
Digital credit will be supported by a variety of technical forms, but in the long run, the advantages of the blockchain will be more significant, and Ali Tencent will speed up the layout, but whether or not to issue digital currency will challenge the ability of the regulatory authorities.
But as long as it is right, the rest is patience and wisdom.