Founder of Jade BES (Blockchain Economics Studio), the public sponsor of the Zen and Universe Maintenance Art.
Mikko currency scholar, founder of Zhibao.com.
Huo Ju PressOne CTO, the author of the public number "Theory of Fallacy."
Katt UIUC, Ph.D., Ph.D. in Information Science (running); unemployed, who has a dragon slaughter; and author of the anti-996 open source software agreement.
After the white paper of Facebook Libra e-money was released, my circle of friends was split into two halves: half advocated that this is a major benefit that will bring the virtual currency industry to the mainstream, and eventually push up Bitcoin; half (actually a small and a half) I feel that the centralized design is very disappointing, even the US government and the US dollar behind the conspiracy theory use the virtual currency to extend the hegemony and control the privacy of citizens.
Behind Libra is a complex virtual currency regulation, sovereign currency financial system, Facebook data monopoly and other issues. To this end, I interviewed several friends who are very concerned about FB and virtual currency. They are a monetary scientist, a blockchain programmer, and an open source agreement legal expert.
| Canadian illustrator Yana Vorontsov
To understand Libra, it is not acceptable to understand Facebook first. In recent years, Facebook has changed from a young dragon to a new dragon and has become the ruler of the game. And Muck Zuckerberg, who wears the same T-shirt day after day, smashes Vietnamese refugee immigrants, makes 99% of his property charity, learns Chinese, insists on running, and the "perfect genius" who wants to make his New Year's wishes public every year. It is also gradually revealing the ruling world, not just the ambition to change the world.
FB connects more than 2 billion users in the world. The main products Facebook, Messeger, Instagram, WhatsApp, Oculus contribute half of the world's social media, and 4 out of every 5 Internet users are FB systems. User, this number exceeds Google and YouTube.
Almost 100% of FB's revenue source is advertising , and more than 90% of the revenue of tens of billions of dollars each year comes from mobile advertising. At present, Wall Street still has great confidence in future revenue growth, and many brokers estimate that the annual compound growth rate (GAGR) is more than 20%.
FB is a unicorn with a market value of $500 billion. Shareholders and investors' continued confidence in FB relies mainly on continued user and revenue growth, such as the new outbreak of gold in Instagram in recent years. But there are so many people in the world, and growth is not unlimited.
So what about the user base? FB's ad revenue = user base x click rate % x ad slot unit price. If the user base does not grow, it is necessary to increase the click rate. How to increase the click rate? Of course, using user data to achieve accurate delivery. This is determined by FB's business model unless the primary source of income is completely changed.
The Cambridge scandal is just a trigger to expose the bottom line of FB's business ethics. Before 2015, Facebook allowed developers to access a large amount of personal information. Since then, FB has been exposed to user data for several exposures, intervening in the presidential election, and being involved in the famous "TongRumen."
Just a few months ago, after the hearing, Mark once again expressed his desire to change the logic of the product and protect the privacy of the user through a touching user letter. (Read Mark Zuckerberg's letter on Facebook's privacy-focused future – http://t.cn/AipGsNkV ) But if this is true, maybe there will not be so many important executives who are leaving the FB because of the idea, including taking the initiative to give up $850 million in revenue, and on Twitter publicly appealed to everyone to uninstall FB's WhatsApp founder Brain Acton. (Click to view the article The WhatsApp founder’s sincerity is still "missing" )
People began to realize that FB's rights are too big and terrible. Zuckerberg’s monopoly on data is more powerful than Rockefeller’s monopoly on oil, because it can manipulate people’s minds and change democratic decisions. Some people say that Google does not influence the screening of information through auction rankings, etc.? But my friend Huo Ju reminded me that Google's keyword ad position can be seen as unlimited, even if you don't take any user data, it has countless keywords to match. But Facebook's insertion of ads into the feed is limited.
Libra was born in this context. From the first day of its birth, its most important mission is:
1. Increase shareholders' and investors' expectations for future income growth
2. Reversing the negative image of the public on FB privacy issues , it can also be regarded as a stock price service in disguise
There is nothing wrong with this. This is the essence of capitalism and the corporate system, not Zucker Burke’s personal choice. (Of course, it's related to his personality, but we don't have the right to comment on the character and character of a person we don't know. We can only say that we can choose not to believe in the media and keep our own judgment.) However, the fantasy Libra will follow the decentralized virtual currency. It is a bit naive to have any agreement, even against sovereign authority and the legal currency system. Below, we will talk to the three great gods in my heart from the economic, technical and legal perspectives.
Obituary for a Billion-Dollar Boondoggle – Danish illustrator Andrea Ucini
Libra's economic implications with Mikko
Libra's goal is to stabilize the currency. But the meaning of "stable" is based on the US dollar, which means that you will go to see its daily price relative to the US dollar. A mortgage pool based on a basket of currencies or assets, the final anchor is still US dollars, is this not very contradictory? In the end, it will inevitably lead to dollar-denominated assets, such as the growing proportion of US Treasury bonds, and Libra becomes the embarrassment of the US dollar.
Yes, this article in my article "Analysis of Facebook Digital Currency Libra's Currency Attributes" is very contradictory, indicating that it is priced by the US dollar, just like the calculation of SDR, based on the dollar exchange rate of the currency in the basket, quite The anchor on it is still the dollar. Very ironic.
What impact will this have on Libra? What might it be like in the end with the dollar? Or what kinds of possibilities?
Libra was born as a vassal of the legal currency . Other influences have not been thought for a while, and the fate will not be better than other stable coins. The relationship with the US dollar is a vassal relationship that uses the dollar's credit to establish its own stability and acceptability.
If it is a vassal relationship with the US dollar, why must we choose a basket of monetary assets , what are the benefits? How is it most likely to configure assets?
I think there are two possibilities. The first is that the basket moves closer to the US dollar and becomes a quasi-dollar stable currency. It is accepted as part of the digital offshore dollar system. Libra exists as a dollar trader and functions like a global bank. But the white paper does not mention that it has this vision. The second possibility is that it is turned off by Trump and it is highly probable that it will be regulated.
Because the person writing the white paper doesn't understand monetary studies, thinking that it is cool, or only doing so is in line with the positioning of his global currency. The downside is quite a lot. Imagine if the euro zone exists with the franc, the German mark and the Italian lira. Can the single currency of the euro survive?
The optional space for configuring assets is small. According to its white paper, if Libra's basket currency is US dollars, British pounds, Euros, and Japanese yen, then the optional assets are US Treasury bonds, national debts of core countries in the Eurozone such as German debt, British government bonds. And Japanese government bonds, in addition to some US dollar bonds issued by super-sovereign institutions should also be able to buy. If it is me, it is possible to find a currency swap between the bank and some central bank counterparties.
So can it be understood that Libra emphasizes the diversity of his currency and asset collateral in order to prevent himself from “looking like the dollar”, otherwise the first reaction of people may be, why do I not use the dollar to achieve these functions? What reaction will the sovereign state outside of Trump be included in the basket? For example, Japan, the euro zone.
People use the dollar without having to think so much about choosing the dollar. This is a natural infiltration process, not something that people deliberately do. Nowadays, strong supervision of technology companies is the general trend. Whether or not to eat or not depends on whether you have arbitrage without authorization from the sovereign department. As long as there is arbitrage, you will definitely take supervision, whether it is to avoid tax avoidance in offshore The digital currency, the oil of the bank, is covered by the scope of supervision.
Can you explain the "oil in the bank with digital currency", then Libra's real competitor is not the US dollar, but the global bank?
On the monetary business level, Libra is only a vassal of the legal currency system. How are the legal currency appendices competing with the central bank and banks? Can only be subordinate to this system.
What is the difference between Libra and Alipay?
Alipay is a payment institution. The definition is very clear. It does not claim to be a global currency. Although Ant Financial’s attempts in the financial field have been very diversified, it has not been promoted because of some well-known reasons. The Libra white paper dilutes payments and emphasizes its monetary and reserve management. Ironically, the former has successfully opened a device payment account with the central bank, and at least touched the monetary authority's balance sheet. Libra can only be freed from the monetary authority's balance sheet and do some shadow money business through banks and other assets (such as national debt). I think taking Libra and Alipay is in Black Alipay.
Is Libra's exchange function established? For example, in a Southeast Asian country, will there be a lot of direct or agent money dealers? As a tourist, I changed from Libra to Libra in Japan, and then to Thailand, I can change it to Thai Baht. Then I can measure the Thai Baht that I have changed. Is it still necessary to use the US dollar to anchor? If so, then why don't I use dollars?
In short, the use of Libra by the exchange itself is “may but not necessary” to me, and I don’t see the specific advantages at the moment. Exchange can be established, but like using the US dollar for Bitcoin and then for the RMB, there is an unnecessary intermediary.
So, is this usage scenario basically only reasonable in countries with capital controls? Will capital-controlled countries completely ban Libra?
Unreasonable, capital-controlled countries will not allow you to exchange money with Libra. Large scale will naturally be banned.
Can Libra fight inflation , especially in countries with high inflation?
That's because Libra's currency basket is a central bank that uses inflation targeting, not because Libra itself is resistant to inflation. For some countries with high inflation, their citizens certainly want to use low inflation currencies.
Are these big institutions of Libra united meaningful? Can they increase Libra's acceptance and mobility in the shortest time, but not subject to regulatory restrictions?
Yes, but I doubt that these companies can be consistent, and that everyone is all aligned for the sake of interest, not for the vision, but it is clear that Libra's current interests are not very attractive compared to its regulatory risks.
If the US government and FB are united, can Libra help the dollar continue to build world hegemony? For example, let more capital-controlled countries and institutions infiltrate the dollar, or help to launder money?
The dollar is originally the hegemonic currency, what does it have to do with Libra? Moreover, the establishment of hegemony is not a one-dimensional currency. Supporting the US dollar system is the GVC and Eurodollar System in globalization. I don't want to answer this kind of conspiracy theories that attract traffic from the media. Those articles are very boring, and actually nothing is said. .
After Libra is strong, will he try to decouple from a basket of mortgage assets , just like the dollar decoupling gold?
Maybe, but it’s very difficult to hook up and unhook. The renminbi has so far not got rid of the dollar reserve. Can Libra be stronger than the Chinese economy? I am skeptical. In the end, it is more likely to become a SDR chicken rib.
Carney just announced that BOE is opening a central bank overnight deposit account to technology companies. This is equivalent to directly supporting digital currencies issued by technology companies such as Libra, and can even be on par with banks. What does it mean?
The significance of BOE is to enable the issuer of digital currency to reach the central bank's balance sheet, so that the issuance of digital currency is no longer indirectly collateralized by legal currency, but may be directly recognized by sovereign credit, and the status is no longer subordinate. A financial institution such as a bank.
| The death of privacy – Italian illustrator Marco Melgra
Facebook's Ambition and Citizen Data Privacy with Huo Ju
What was your first reaction after Libra was released?
The regulator finally had to give some definitive conclusions.
For example, what is the conclusion? Libra is an independent company registered in Switzerland. Can the US government implement regulation?
Because of the long arm jurisdiction, the US regulatory authorities are the strongest. For example, tether has long dared not announce his bank account. But if Facebook is the bulk of the company to do this, the relevant departments must give a conclusion, based on the US dollar (and other baskets of currencies) to issue a more stable cryptocurrency, is this OK? If there is no problem, there is a problem, if you can, give specific instructions. It can't be the same as the past. "I don't want to say it, but if you do, I might find you trouble." And everyone will not dare to do it.
If the regulatory authorities say yes, can it be understood as an industry that recognizes cryptocurrency, which is a good thing for the industry?
If the regulator says it can, it means acknowledging the industry , and many of the previously ambiguous or vaguely ambiguous spaces do not exist, so other teams can follow their own rules to make their own products. Before that, like you and me, there will be a lot of hesitation in doing such a thing, in case it is illegal? In case of being targeted by the US regulatory authorities, the lawyer's fees will cost a lot of money… We are not willing to take these risks to collide with them. But the volume of FB, they have the strength to collide. This is a good thing.
In addition to controlling the stable currency that anchors sovereign assets, does the regulator need to draw conclusions about other aspects? Such as privacy. I have seen that there are already legislators who have begun to boycott Libra. What are the reasons for the boycott?
Regulators need to give some clear conclusions. For example, both GUSD and PAX claimed to be self-compliant, but in fact the specific rules are still vague. We need regulators to give some more specific guidelines for cryptocurrency and fiat currency relationships. For example, how to do it, how much deposit to put in the bank, how to disclose information, how to disclose financial information and the like. With this information, smaller teams can issue and comply with the currency at a lower cost.
There are several reasons for public boycott. More importantly, because Libra can make cross-border payments, how to ensure privacy without impacting the current legal system, such as anti-terrorism, anti-money laundering, taxation, etc. These things are currently unknown.
Libra users all need KYC, so will there be privacy? In the past, FB wanted all your social data, and now even financial control , it can be said that the pursuit of privacy is contrary, but under the banner of privacy. How do you think about this problem technically and legally?
Yes, privacy is also a big problem. If all financial data is owned by a US company (or Swiss shell company), is this consistent with GDPR? And even if it fits the GDPR, what do they get from social data that Facebook already has, plus financial data? What can they predict with AI calculations? These things are very scary.
Yesterday Libra's person in charge said that they would not be exposed to the user's data, and would not give it to a third party. But technically, can they definitely do it right? There may be many misunderstandings about the "encryption" of "cryptocurrency".
Yes, they can of course do it. So I don't believe this. Looking at Facebook history, this commitment is not credible. Technically, there is a KYC process that makes it difficult to achieve true privacy. Compared with the unlinkability/untraceability of Monroe, it is clearer that although everyone claims to be a cryptocurrency, the specific implementation is very different, which also affects whether the user data is “we don’t touch it” or “we Also have no ability to get it." The latter is truly reliable, and the former's commitment is unreliable.
Facebook has despised privacy from the beginning, and this has never changed. When WhatsApp was acquired by FB, Telegram ushered in the largest user growth in history, which is a good indication that many people are wary of this company. If you want to say how evil Facebook is, it is not necessarily, but it is based on the profit model, which makes it necessary to endless access to user privacy, and need to guide users to contribute more privacy to it. This huge amount of data is concentrated in the hands of a company, which is dangerous.
Then do you think this should be attributed to Zuckerberg’s ambitions, capitalism and corporate equity system, or is it unfavorable for regulation?
All of the above points should be included. In addition to this, there are also the winners of the Internet, and many other factors have combined to form this situation.
So other countries, especially those that are more human rights-oriented, now have a view on Libra? For example, Canada and Europe.
Yes, Europe is very worried about this. They called on the G7 countries to act together. Because Libra has the potential to bypass the entire European settlement system and affect the current monetary system.
Is there any possibility that the Libra incident will trigger regulators to make clearer decisions and penalties for Facebook's data monopoly and privacy issues? Is it possible that the beginning of the FB collapse?
The strength of a company of this size is too strong. It is difficult for US regulators to make a ruling that does not run it. If it does, it is still possible to find a legal route to completely transfer to other countries. I think that the collapse of FB will happen, but it is unlikely that it will start because of the regulatory authorities. It must be because people no longer trust or even hate it . Now this degree of aversion is far from enough.
Before Xiaoza said that he wanted to change the business model of FB and protect user privacy. As a result, I found that it was only end-to-end encryption of WhatsApp and FB and Messenger, but social network information, Facebook and Instagram, were not mentioned. Is this determination to change privacy only superficial?
I think this is just a reflection of the pressure of Congress under social pressure. If you want to enhance your privacy, just let WhatsApp do what their founding team thinks, but the reality is that WhatsApp co-founders Brian Acton and Jan Koum have left, and Brian Acton simply gave up $850 million. The income is to publicly attack Facebook for privacy violations…so I can't believe that Facebook will really handle privacy issues. But the views mentioned in Zuckerberg’s open letter are quite correct, but I don’t believe they will really follow these ideas.
Xiaozha has always been a politically correct person and his personal image is also very good. A few days ago I discussed a FB stock with a friend. He said that he would never sell it because people still believes in it. Do you think people still believe?
I don't think so, more and more people are starting to stop trusting them. The situation in North America is different from that in China. Many people don’t believe in Facebook from the beginning. I have also met a lot of people who are a few years older than me, but who are determined not to use Facebook and insist on getting information from traditional media and radio. In the context of China's Internet coverage, this kind of thinking is unbelievable, but many people in the United States and Canada are indeed this idea, although they are still a minority.
If Libra succeeds, FB will have a potential annual profit of hundreds of billions of dollars, eating up the market share of many banks and international traders, so Libra is also a shareholder and investment after FB users and advertising growth reach their limits. What are the measures to increase profit expectations? Although it will also touch the interests of Wall Street.
Yes, I agree with this view. This will bring new profit growth points. From the user's point of view, at least the difficulty of current expensive cross-border transfers can be solved. It’s funny to say that in this era, I exchanged money with my friends in the United States. The cheapest way is to send a check to them by ordinary mail. Although the mobile app can scan the check directly, the process of mailing is still very funny. So it does have the potential to impact the current banking business.
| No borders – Danish illustrator Andrea Ucini
Legal supervision boundary with Katt
First, how do you personally look at the Libra product, especially considering the regulatory pressure Facebook has faced over the past few years?
I think Libra is a decision that is unsuccessful. A few days ago, I said that Libra must come out and someone must tell FB that it is unconstitutional. Then, isn't there a member of Congress who is looking for him? I think Libra is too risky.
The first one is that FB is almost a monopoly on social networking. If you reach out to other industries, I think the US government is looking for trouble, just like standard oil companies and ATT. The anti-monopoly investigation against FB was there before Libra, and now I feel that FB is almost shouting at me.
There is also Libra, the counter-dollar stable currency. He himself is saying that it is a global cross-border payment. Do you want to replace the US dollar? Therefore, it is the impact of the country's coinage, which is a risk. Coupled with the risk of stabilizing the currency. Someone like cftc jumped out and said that we have to look at this and return to us.
In general, the legal risk is too great, so I really think that FB is doing tricks, and of course it is not impossible. Jp Morgan immediately monopolized the steel industry, and then reached a deal with the government to escape, the standard oil should have just been dismantled, so I said it would be a success if it is unsuccessful. FB does not die, at least a small tie to step down.
What are the current oppositions of the US legislature to Libra?
The main reason is that the uncertain FB is in line with the current financial regulatory framework in the United States, so you should not do our first hearing to assess the risk. The financial supervision is directed at the blockchain, which is the law and anti-money laundering related to securities and futures regulation. These members did not say Very thin.
Will GDPR and other countries study related countermeasures?
How do you say this… I spoke to suji yesterday about something called administration cost . It is not acceptable to do this without considering the law. In short, it is the cost of law enforcement. This is especially familiar with this because I used to do environmental law. Because there are so many environmental laws, the United States has a national environmental policy act. The main thing is that the government-related projects have to do environmental impact assessment reports (epa do), the impact is too small to do, and so far 99% of the projects have been affected by epa too small, because a report More than 100 pages.
In fact, GDPR, I feel the same, for example, I want to engage in FB, I certainly do not want you to withdraw from the market, it is mainly to fine money. Then I have enough evidence first. This collects evidence, the cost of the hearing is less than the money I can punish you. GDPR Now it seems that the cost of law enforcement is still quite high, mainly because the government is not familiar with this piece . In fact, the last US hearing can be seen. The group of grandfather obviously does not understand anything.
This administration cost, privacy and financial regulation all have this problem. In finance, can you simply tell Libra as a cross-border international currency that would violate the legal risks of the country and other countries?
In fact, the main thing is that the coinage right belongs to the government. If Libra is circulated in other countries on a large scale, which big country will live. Now the United States still seems to be engaged in FB because FB is obviously not a trousers with Wall Street. Isn't this a banker's cake?
The most incompetent thing in the United States is the banker, but this is the root cause. If they want to marry FB, it may be like a pocket crime. Only Africa and South America can accept Libra as the currency of circulation, but South America is the basis of authoritarian government. What about Africa? You are going to reach the back garden of China and Europe…
So apart from the hearing, what other legislative or regulatory comments should we pay attention to?
In fact, I have been waiting for the relevant case to be accused of court. Because both the law enforcement and the legislative departments have spoken, it is worse because the court has the final say, and the court has the power to interpret it.
| The function of Ellipsis – Danish illustrator Andrea Ucini
If a thing has two sides, then it is good.
Summarize the biggest gains in the chat in my own language, including my own thoughts:
○ Libra was born as a legal vassal. It challenged not the US dollar (at least not now), but the traditional banking industry. As for how far it can go in international financial status, it depends on whether it can enter the sovereign state balance sheet, or how many sovereign countries are willing to take the initiative to open the back door.
○ Libra is central to both the technical design of the blockchain's permission chain and the economic strategy of the joint giant and sovereign government from top to bottom. This is similar to JP Morgan coin. It is fundamentally different from what we call bitcoin and other decentralized encrypted digital currencies.
○ Libra has its economic and financial value, mainly reflected in more efficient domestic or cross-border transaction settlement, as well as foreign exchange transfers and exchanges. But this value is mainly reflected in "convenience" and "cost reduction", not security, privacy, and decentralization. So the words "encryption" and "virtual currency" are actually easy to mislead ordinary people. Its short-term best result is a global Alipay.
○ Libra's birth and Facebook user growth are close to the ceiling, and the negative image continues to influence the background of the stock price. So focusing on Libra's short-term profit margins, and Facebook stock prices may make more sense. Xiaozha is a businessman, and his first responsibility is business ethics in a capitalist environment. And if Libra fails this time, he is likely to be forced to step down.
○ If Facebook volunteers or is under pressure from the US government or intelligence, it can keep track of all of Libra's financial data on the chain. Since the data on the blockchain is not tamperable, as long as KYC guarantees the correspondence between the real ID and the wallet's public key address, personal financial data is easier to grasp and use as evidence . Countries will also want to launch their own digital currency, but rarely allow a big technology company to assume such a role. From the perspective of national anti-money laundering and financial supervision, this seems to be understandable. But from the perspective of Facebook's rights, this is very dangerous.
○ Privacy has always been a long-standing issue for Facebook, followed by the use of private data for citizenship, hobbies, and even manipulation. Facebook's values are more evil than all other Silicon Valley giants, such as Google and Apple, but this is also the result of its single business model. After Libra, people who hate Facebook will hate it even more.
○ Regulation is of course a sword hanging over Facebook, but regulation also takes time and has its boundaries and costs. If the government chooses to spin off Facebook, it is likely to split several of its current independent products, much like the at&t split. However, now, what Xiaoza does is to fully integrate the user data and communication channels of all products (FB, WhatsApp, Ins).
○ BOE has just announced that it allows technology companies to have a reserve account, which means it can be equal or even exceed the bank . Whether it is the United States, Europe, or capital-controlled countries, their starting point is the interest in their existing game. There is monetary sovereignty and free exchange, but the country whose currency is relatively weak in the world is more likely to accept Libra first. To be serious, this can be a means of colonization. That's why Libra publicly finances the US giant because interest bundles are number one.
○ The timing of Libra's emergence is also precisely the emergence of geopolitical conflicts. The world's QE is still unfinished. Sovereign currency has become a tool of trade and a historical stage of untrustworthy. It can be said that digital currency is an inevitable trend, and the difference is only in which way it exists . For Libra, strict KYC means that most of the places where Libra can be traded freely have more liberal policies, but not where it can't, or the transaction costs are high. From this perspective, I don't know if Libra will really help Africa's bottom population without being served by banks, or whether it will further widen the gap between the rich and the poor.
How science has made it possible to live longer – Danish illustrator Andrea Ucini
I have always been a technology optimist and like to explore the nature of things. A new thing, no conclusion, no evil, needs to be debated, vigilant, is actually good, because it means innovation. Anyway, Facebook has the courage to challenge the rules of the world, I think it is good. Its greatest significance lies in inspiring others, especially young people.
After all, governments, as well as grass-roots people, accept whether Libra is not accepted because it is in their own interest, not a metaphysical discussion. However, I don't want people to think that it is the only choice, both Libra and Facebook.
Just last night, I was eating with a 21-year-old Canadian French girl who was actually an adopted Asian. When she finally wanted to leave a contact, she said she didn't have Facebook, and I was surprised to ask why. She said that because I am a privacy-conscious person, on Facebook and Instagram, those who don't know me at all know what I look like, where I am, and who I am with. I asked, is your idea common in your classmates? She said no, it is a minority. It's really hard for me to imagine that the opposite personality is extremely open and fluent. I speak five languages. I think that I am a young girl of the world citizen. I really don't have a Facebook account.
Perhaps the choice and the real change are in the hands of a younger generation. Sometimes I don't think about "what I want", but "I want my next generation to have or have nothing" or "what they want" to get a more objective answer. Zuckerberg said in his letter to donate 99% of his property after his daughter’s birth that he wanted to create a better world for her.
I believe that his sentence is true.
Source: Zen and Universe Maintenance Art (WeChat Public)