Research report | Bitcoin bull market really came? In fact, FOMO emotions are far from being ignited.

After nearly half a year of bear market, Bitcoin has gradually warmed up since March 2019, and the cumulative increase in the past three months has reached 200%. Moreover, since the birth of Bitcoin, its market price has shown a significant cyclical change—based on the time of production reduction, Bitcoin is currently in the third round of historical cycle.

In judging the future trend of Bitcoin, we provide a periodic analysis framework to analyze the future of Bitcoin from three aspects: supply and demand change, investment cycle and currency substitution, starting from the commodity attributes, financial attributes and currency attributes of Bitcoin. Trend. Bitcoin's next round of production cuts will occur around May 2020. Investor optimism has fluctuated for four months, but it has not stabilized in a "hyper" state, and the continued weakening of the dollar is conducive to boosting bitcoin price growth. .

Based on the above factors, we believe that the bitcoin market has entered a period of full recovery, and it is expected that after 4-6 months of volatility growth, we will see explosive growth in the period of hyperactivity, and based on the long-term trend of bitcoin prices, this round is integrated. The market demand amplification signal, the current peak price is expected to hit a record high.