What is the secret behind Bitcoin breaking through the $13,000 mark?

Bitcoin is crazy!

At 13:20 on June 26, bitcoin prices broke through the $13,000 mark in a short period of time, hitting a new high in January 2018, with a 24-hour increase of 14.00% and a total market capitalization of $224.7 billion, equivalent to Intel's market capitalization.

According to non-small data, this year, bitcoin prices have risen more than 230%, surpassing all global stock markets, commodities and other risky assets.

Compared to the bull market in 2017, this time bitcoin has skyrocketed more rapidly.

In 2017, Bitcoin rose from $4,000 to $13,000 and spent 114 days and 17 hours. In 2019, Bitcoin rose from $4,000 to $13,000 and spent 85 days.

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Another data worthy of attention is that the market value of Bitcoin in the total market value of cryptocurrency has exceeded 60% for the first time, reaching a record high in the past 17 months, and now dominates the market share of cryptocurrency.

Bitcoin is getting stronger and stronger, and the altcoin currency is not moving. There are indications that this is just a bitcoin bull market!

What is the logic behind the bitcoin bull market, why is it only bitcoin?

Global opening of interest rate cuts

At the macroeconomic level, the strong global interest rate cuts by the central bank may be the first key to opening bitcoin prices.

As the global economic risks continue to increase, the main theme of global monetary policy is gradually becoming more relaxed, which may open a new round of "rate reduction."

In February of this year, India started the first shot of interest rate cuts. Since May, central banks in India, South Korea, New Zealand and Australia have blew the horn of interest rate cuts. The major central banks in Asia and Oceania have ushered in a wave of interest rate cuts.

The Fed, which raised interest rates four times in 2018, has maintained a "stay-in motion" trend this year, but its position has clearly changed to "pigeon."

On June 19, the Fed announced that it would maintain the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 2.25% to 2.5%, but hinted that it may cut interest rates in the near future.

Wang Wei, chief economist of the Asia-Pacific region, the world's largest mutual fund leader, said that the Fed has lost the best time-reduction window in June, and may have a large interest rate cut in July.

A cut in interest rates will reduce the rate of return on bank deposits, which is equivalent to a currency depreciation, and capital is profitable.

Not willing to devalue the currency will find new habitats, and more actively invest in risky assets with higher yields. In the past, their place of residence was usually the stock market or gold, and now they have a bolder choice – bitcoin.

Risky and fierce

Bitcoin has long been seen as a hedge against global risks. When the world's political and military situation is unstable, uneasiness is directly reflected in the price of Bitcoin.

In 2013, the Mediterranean island country Cyprus experienced a debt crisis. For a time, the people of Cyprus began to buy bitcoin madly. From March of this year, the price of bitcoin rose from 30 dollars to 250 dollars in one month.

Because of this crisis, Cyprus has the world's first Bitcoin ATM, and Bitcoin has begun to enter the public's field of vision.

In 2019, the black swan reappeared.

On June 20, a US Navy's MQ-4C drone was shot down by Iranian ground-to-air missiles. According to the New York Times, US President Trump originally approved a military strike on Iran's local time on the 21st to retaliate against Iran. Shooting down the U.S. drone, but finally retracted the order.

The game between the United States and Iran continues.

US President Trump said on the 22nd that the United States will introduce new sanctions against Iran to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, and does not rule out the possibility of military action against Iran.

Unrest has spread in Iran, and the Iranian people have begun to buy and sell bitcoin through various off-market methods. According to CCN, bitcoin prices have recently seen a 30% premium in the Iranian over-the-counter market, indicating a strong demand for safe haven.

Institutional funds admission

Who is buying bitcoin, why buy only bitcoin?

Bitcoin analyst Rhythm revealed in a tweet at the end of May that Wall Street whales are also hoarding bitcoins because of FOMO.

Grayscale Investments, a self-proclaimed "global leader in digital asset management," purchased more than 11,000 BTCs in April 2019, which is equivalent to 21% of the 54,000 monthly supply of Bitcoin.

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If Grayscale continues to buy BTC at its current monthly rate, it may have 42% of Bitcoin's monthly supply after halving its production in 2020.

According to the latest release of Grayscale (June 25), the total assets of the cryptocurrency are 2.6 billion US dollars, of which BTC trust funds account for about 95% of its assets under management, occupying an absolute leading position.

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At present, the rise of Bitcoin is unrelated to the general public. The fundamental reason is that institutional investors are increasing their holdings of Bitcoin.

In the market, there are only a handful of ponds that can accommodate institutions. Bitcoin is the largest of them. Among the investment choices of institutions, only Bitcoin is the most suitable.

This may explain why bitcoin continues to rise and most of the altcoins are still in place.

Facebook currency

On June 18, Facebook dropped a blockbuster to the world and launched Libra, a cryptocurrency, claiming to build a borderless currency and financial infrastructure for billions of people.

Global social giants and Facebook with 2.7 billion users have entered the cryptocurrency sector, and such news has undoubtedly fueled bitcoin price growth during the bitcoin market.

Facebook currency is not directly related to Bitcoin. Its biggest significance is that it is the correct name for the blockchain, so that people with original colored eyes begin to correct their prejudice, realizing that the blockchain is not a liar industry, perhaps the future. The direction of financial technology has also made people see the potential and value of the blockchain in the field of payment and other fields.

This will also attract over-the-counter funds to participate in Bitcoin investments.

CFTC approves LedgerX to provide physical settlement of bitcoin futures contracts

On June 25, the CFTC official website document showed that the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has approved bitcoin derivatives provider LedgerX to provide physical settlement of bitcoin futures contracts.

LedgerX is the second company to be approved to provide physical settlement of bitcoin futures. According to Coindesk, LedgerX chief risk officer and operations officer Juthica Chou said that they will serve customers of any size, not limited to institutional customers. This means that the company can also offer new futures contracts to retail customers.

Like Bakk, the exchange of the New York Stock Exchange's parent company, the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), LedgerX trades bitcoin physical delivery futures.

When the contract expires, both long and short sides need to prepare the spot for physical delivery, which will help increase the demand for bitcoin in kind, while curbing excessive speculation in the market and making the financial ecology of Bitcoin more perfect and stable.

Can Bitcoin still buy?

Since the beginning of this year, bitcoin prices have risen by 230% to a high of $13,000. Can you buy them?

For any Hodler (long-term holder), this problem does not seem to be a problem, the answer is yes.

Anthony Pompliano, founder of Morgan Creek, a cryptocurrency company, said in an article entitled "Off The Chain" recently, "Bitcoin can reach $100,000 by the end of 2021."

The main reason he gave is that the price of Bitcoin is controlled by the market supply and demand relationship, and Bitcoin is expected to see a production cut in May 2020.

Currently, Bitcoin miners receive 12.5 awards. By May 2020, each miner's reward will be halved again to 6.25 new Bitcoins.

At present, the inflation rate of Bitcoin is about 3.76%, and by May next year, this ratio will drop to 1.8%.

In the next few years, Bitcoin will have incredible demand growth, including the application of large institutions, the approval of multiple ETFs and retail investment products, the increase of global instability factors, and the weak performance of traditional financial markets. Wait.

Wen Hao is not bright