The article is very long, hope you enjoy~
A Bitcoin Investment Behavior Study
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- Big rise and fall! Bitcoin fell $1,100 after breaking $9,000
- Outstanding! Bitcoin is about to achieve over 90% year-on-year growth this year, can it continue in 2020?
In response to some of the questions I wrote three years ago, "Why didn't I make a fortune on Bitcoin." At that time (January 5, 2017) I wrote this paragraph:
To say that I know the level of Bitcoin is definitely not high, but it is definitely not a layman. As the big V of the so-called currency circle at the time, the so-called investors, my influence on the Internet is not small. I even wrote a lot of professional discourse about bitcoin, and it was later proved by facts. I have never made a big mistake in the view of Bitcoin. From the perspective of grasping the fundamentals, the research on the fundamentals of bitcoin is the most known in my investment projects, far exceeding the depth of investigation of other stocks. . It should be said that it is absolutely unsurpassed to contribute 10 times.
But in fact it is useless. More professional professional miners than me, the programmers of the mine company, can write the own pool program, design their own ASIC cattle, and finally make a lot of money, most of the company finally went bankrupt, this group of people did not know where to go. . The so-called technical experts and cryptographers are more than two years old. Even when we also invited Kevin Kelly to the company to join, the end is the same, and, eggs. Maybe Bitcoin is amazing and extraordinary, and we can't grasp these mortals? After two years, after a lot of detours, I made a big profit… I can now respond to this question in a limited way. In fact, this matter is very complicated and very simple. Just like human beings for thousands of years, they can't understand why light and heavy objects land at the same time, because they don't know "air resistance."
Once the air resistance is known, this problem is solved. More importantly, once the control variable method is known, the door to scientific research opens. As Dr. Ding in "Spherical Lightning" said, the result of such a disastrous sacrifice is worthless, because the direction is completely wrong, and embarked on the road of the South. Of course, such sacrifices are also worthy of respect, but they are not within the scope of our discussion. You see that I am far away.
Li Xiao said that the stupid consensus is also a consensus, but I want to know first why the stupidity will form such a kind, not the consensus. What is the basis of the decision-making and the decision-making process? How can we adjust our own decisions to be ignorant? ?
This is the meaning of this research series. The article "I Smile Li Xiaolai I Know" written in the head of the dish has actually begun to reveal this problem. This article was made when Li Xiaolai was in the midst of public opinion because of illegal fund-raising.
You have to admit one thing: There are many things today that are so complex that they are completely beyond your understanding. It not only challenges your ability to process information, but also challenges your understanding of technology and challenges your mental model—the way you perceive the world.
Most of us live in areas that we know well, so we think we have control over everything. In fact, it is just a small piece of debris from the whole world. If you don't believe it, you can try to find someone who has no foundation in economics at all. Tell him about where the money that has evaporated in the stock market has gone. Remember his reaction, then think about one thing: For you, is there an "evaporation" problem that is incomprehensible to him? Are you as confused as he is, trying to understand but not doing anything? Here, I need to borrow and use this section of the dish as my beginning, because he has already written what I think.
The complexity of bitcoin (digital currency, blockchain) is unimaginable to any layman, but if the research understands it, it is relatively simple, at least understandable. This involves professional issues. No one wants to admit that he “does not understand” and that there are fewer people who admit that they don’t understand and are willing to learn by themselves. When encountering new things, let's make a final conclusion, and random evaluation is human nature. Even more frightening is that Bitcoin itself is “money” and there is no further process of change – without extremely rigorous training, even failure and reflection, it is almost impossible to put the Bitcoin system from “money” from your birth. Separation of reverie, fantasy and illusion.
This has nothing to do with your academic qualifications, experience, and abilities. There may be a little bit of relationship, but the relationship is not big. I have seen many people in the currency circle, such as Dragon and Phoenix, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Tsinghua University, entrepreneurs, entrepreneurs, studying abroad, writing books, engaging in VC, and of course, grassroots, farmers, workers, pyramid schemes, fraud There are also prisoners released, and the qualifications are from primary school to post-doctoral, but the common point is that bitcoin has skyrocketed for a few years. Most of these people have not made any money, or even lost a mess, no better than my liberal arts. Where to go. I later heard that Sun Zhengyi also lost money, but there are only a few people who have succeeded. Besides Li Xiaolai, I also know a few successful winners in the field of bitcoin, but their origins, background and knowledge profession seem to be No similarities. What exactly is going on? My own experience in the stock market told me that it shouldn't be like this. This not only confused me, but also inspired my curiosity.
1. Bitcoin is not a field well known to anyone.
Bitcoin is not "digital gold", not "Ponzi scheme", not "currency", nor can it replace "legal currency." Bitcoin is bitcoin, an application of blockchain. A blockchain is a blockchain, not a "book" or a "database."
Bitcoin is an application of the blockchain, which is a data structure with irrevocable security consisting of blocks in a specific structure. This security comes from modern hashing algorithms such as SHA-256 or MD5. The blockchain can have a public-private key system or other systems, but basically it is based on a series of characteristic cryptographic algorithms to guarantee its authorization.
This is like an atom is an atom, an atom is not a molecule, not a neutron and a proton. Atoms are not a pile of quarks. An atom is an atom, which is its meta definition. Atoms are made up of smaller components, but they are not the same thing. Sometimes it is not as good to say that if the metaphor is not appropriate, it is not appropriate to compare basic particles to things like small balls, especially when discussing its microscopic properties.
This tough definition and technical details, for most people, this is no different from magic, the Master Trainer will tell you that there is no Arcane talent, let you go back and do something else.
Investors usually don't know anything about fundamentals. Although the grain does not distinguish between the millet and the millet, investors do oil futures know that it is used to drive, although it does not know how to mine, do the power coal know that it is used to generate electricity, although the wires are not divided clear. Investors know cloud computing, although most people don't know what root means in their lifetime, but know that websites need servers. Cloud computing is some kind of advanced server that provides services to the network industry.
But Bitcoin (blockchain) – this pile of nouns piled together, is it money directly? At least, is it directly an asset? It’s terrible… It’s completely challenging people’s common sense, plus the technical details of magic. It’s no wonder that the blockchain is not blindly sought after or blindly degraded because everyone doesn’t know what they are talking about. Under the premise of no fundamental information, it is a great technological revolution to look at the K-line chart. It is a Ponzi scheme.
2. Facing the psychological reaction of abstract things with powerful power
Technical complexity is one thing, and linking directly to money is another matter. When two things are put together, a wonderful chemical reaction will occur. According to the false total, the ecologicalization is reversed.
Returning to the atomic example at the beginning of this paragraph, the definitions of the scientific concepts of atomic and radiation are completely abstract to the human senses. People cannot see the atoms, they cannot see their internal structures, and they cannot perceive radiation. But such a purely abstract thing, if it releases energy on a macro scale, gives a huge shock. The mysterious atomic energy, the horrible nuclear annihilation, and the "radiation" of murder and bloodlessness. If the shock of the mushroom cloud is sensory, then "radiation" gives people an invisible fear. How does the mysterious and abstract principle combine with violent or ruthless death, and how can it not cause great fear? Therefore, the people talk about nuclear color change, so that it is completely understandable to grab salt. No matter how the scientists explain it, it has no effect.
Blockchain and bitcoin are another thing, abstract mathematical algorithms, mysterious operating mechanisms, and mysterious founder Nakamoto Satoshi. People cannot imagine private keys as "money" like gold or cash (facts) The private key is not a bitcoin, especially a very large amount of money. I remember the first time I tried to store the larger value bitcoin offline and found that it was difficult for me to accept so much wealth just to stay on a blank piece of paper I wrote. If the paper is lost, nothing will be lost. No one can help me find it back. When I tried to back up the wallet on my computer, I realized that I was beginning to doubt the operation of the computer. I wanted to understand the physical structure of the storage device. I want to know if the device worth a thousand dollars is reliable enough. Safe to store a huge value.
At this time, if we carefully examine the world we are used to, we find that it is actually a kind of self-comfort. For example, the concept of "bank" is tied to "credit currency". When we think of the bank, we think of the bank we went to. In fact, it is just a business place. “Banks” are invisible money factories. In fact, all we can see is the office and the staff. The real system of the bank is an invisible network of countless lending relationships. In fact, this network maintains the operation of credit money, and banks (and central banks and banknotes) are completely abstract structures.
When it comes to banknote credit, people will imagine the central bank, even the "state," and will talk about "force" if it doesn't move – it seems to be the only thing in their minds that can be imagined. I don't think many people have actually boarded an American aircraft carrier, nor can they know how modern airplanes fly. When they think of "state" and "force", in fact, only a few movies and video games appear in their minds. What they really want is to associate the abstract symbol in the hand (US dollars) with these imaginary things, and imagine that these things can protect it, even if they are not Americans.
In fact, if you think carefully, according to the logic of "dollar hegemony", the second currency in the world should be ruble, and the third currency is renminbi?
And Bitcoin doesn't even have a bank's business hall. There is only one string. This string is your money. This feeling is probably the first time in history. Even more frightening is that we fully understand why this string can guarantee that your money is yours, just because of the principles of mathematics and physics. When I first wrote an article about the security of Bitcoin a few years ago, I discovered that this is so far beyond the grasp of the human brain – the probability of collision in the address space is so low that it can be equal to infinity. According to the ideal computer, the time required to reach a collision is also dozens of times the life of the universe. For a person with basic mathematics and physics knowledge, what are the concepts such as "the United States" and "dollars" that are necessary for analogy?
What is more troublesome is the concept of non-technical fields, such as mines that are leaking and leaking, so how vulnerable is it to ensure safety? What if countries prohibit bitcoin? People have trusted gold for thousands of years, and why they accept new things… These questions seem simple, but when they are carefully thought of, they are all big pits, involving political science, philosophy, game theory, epistemology, etc., belonging to society. The basic problems in the field of study, and even many of them have not been properly explained so far. From this point of view, Bitcoin is really appropriate as a "social experiment."
But investors are facing the deep abyss of concept behind Bitcoin. The shock of the K-line chart is like a nuclear bomb explosion. There is no time left to think about the volcanic eruption of wealth on the plain. The mysterious bitcoin, combined with the unclear scientific principles and huge wealth effects, will definitely produce extremely crazy speculative impulses in people's hearts. I don't understand it anyway, I can't understand it in a short time, but it has gone up, and it has skyrocketed! ——Buy it first, don’t buy it, it’s not backward, it’s not good, buy it and study it again, then you can’t buy it and sell it again!
However, there are also alpine waterfalls on the K-line map. The fear of falling is also real. When the fear of falling is combined with the invisible digital assets, the fear is "something that has nothing at all. What should I do if I return to zero?" ?". Unlike the decline in stocks, it is conceivable that the company has factories and assets. The bitcoin that has no representationality has fallen from a height, and there is almost no anchor point in the psychological. This fear is far greater than stock investment. At this time, the problems that were not understood before have begun to emerge. This is also uncertain. It is also uncertain. Looking at the price of the currency, the problem has not fallen, so I have to cut the meat first…
When ignorance is combined with greed and fear, there seems to be a psychological explanation for the skyrocketing of digital currencies.
3. Do not know how to understand is also a psychological need
In the face of a brand new thing, its principle is extremely complicated, for most people can not understand for a long time, and can not imagine from the sensory level (as you can not feel "radiation" through the eyes), but also for you The financial situation has a huge impact, no matter what direction the impact is…
People always have to rationalize it! Whether it is blind worship or scorn, we cannot accept that something we can't understand exists in our world. The brain must give it an explanation, no matter what the explanation is.
Thus, the most representative case is exclusion. It’s best to sue directly as a scam because we have knowledge and imagination about scams in our brains. Moreover, he was dismissed as a scam, and he gave himself reasons for not participating. He did not participate, and he looked at the K-line chart and looked at it (if people who did not participate, they would not pay attention to the price of Bitcoin), how to explain to themselves I don't want to invest in Bitcoin? Naturally, this is a scam. Don't look at the money you are making now, you will lose your money sooner or later.
Investors who have already participated in it know that Bitcoin may plummet, and it is unclear why Bitcoin has a certain value. The significance of its technical system naturally cannot give a self-explanatory explanation. In particular, bitcoin fell, and after being quilted, it often began to apply the concept of the stock futures market, trying to prove that this is a normal "market volatility." After sitting in the elevator several times, I naturally tried to use that set of hype. The result was of course to get off the bus and see the bitcoin grow away. Other investors have FOMO emotions, and they are trapped after the high position. The fear makes them think that this is a Ponzi scheme, and then cut off the meat.
People always have to give themselves a statement. If Bitcoin can't give it, then write one for yourself.
4. Why people are hard to accept bitcoin (blockchain)
Well, some of the previous questions seem to have an explanation. Why is there almost no similarity in the background of the winners of the currency circle? Why can't the education and work experience help the investment in the currency market succeed?
I try to give a few interpretations here: Bitcoin is bitcoin, a brand new thing, can't directly apply old experience, and is based on completely abstract mathematical logic. Usually the experience of other industries, knowledge does not directly help to understand bitcoin. If blindly applying the logic and paradigms of other industries, it is easily misleading and even swaying. Plus cryptography is extremely professional knowledge, and often the academic background of a person is of little use. Even computer professionals, if they don't have a deep understanding in this field, can't immediately grasp the technical characteristics of the blockchain.
Being unable to grasp the technical characteristics seems to be insignificant, but it may be fatal at critical moments. Invisible wealth can directly depend on computer knowledge that you don't understand, and this knowledge has no explanation for a degree of science. Fear, confusion, worship and other ideas come to life. Especially in the case of price volatility or long positions, and when major events (such as forks) occur, the technical background is not strong, especially if it is ill-conceived, it is easy to be washed off.
The purely abstract bitcoin is directly linked to the extremely strong wealth effect, which has a major impact on the values of ordinary people. Not only ordinary people, but even the general social elites can hardly control such an impact. It is almost impossible to deal with the idea of doing business and investing. It is almost impossible to avoid big losses. So what VC fund managers, stock masters, small business owners, university professors and the like, the usual social "successors" in the bitcoin market is completely understandable. Before I entered the bitcoin market, there was nothing more than a bit of experience in the stock and futures markets. Success is incredible.
The above two points are related to each other and have reflexiveness. The public did not know how to understand, but was stimulated by strong wealth to enter the market, and prices soared. After the bubble bursts, the people can't grasp the price anchor of bitcoin, and the price falls down again, breaking the previous feedback loop. Extremely high price volatility, in turn, strongly interferes with the rationality of ordinary people, making it impossible to make a calm judgment on Bitcoin. It is no wonder that many of the real money that can be used to hold the coins are rich, and people who buy coins say that they lose money and lose money, and that is not the case. As long as you are serious, the rationality in the usual sense is pale and powerless. Therefore, to solve the problem of bitcoin, in fact, the problem is not in Bitcoin, but in yourself. But we are not billionaires, we need to make money by virtual currency. What can we do? No way, you can only try to catch your own hair and fly up.
Some people say that unexamined life is not worth living. If you have never looked at life carefully, have not thought about the meaning of life, and only come for a little benefit, then it is really embarrassing. I don't mean to say that you must be a philosopher to speculate on coins, but the key to solving the digital currency problem is not the digital currency itself. Digital currency investment is extremely demanding on the quality of individuals, and this requirement is implicit. Find out why you want to make money, why should you rush to make money, and the meaning of life in addition to making money seems to be more important than making money.
In short, virtual currency is not a feast for the poor, especially those who are unwilling to learn.
To promote the blockchain, this article uses Li Xiaolai's Press.one to carry out the blockchain copyright deposit.
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