Xiao Lei: China has increased its holdings of gold, bitcoin has risen sharply, and Saudi Arabia has threatened to abandon the US dollar.

According to data just released by the central bank, China's gold reserves have risen for four consecutive months. China's gold reserves at the end of March were 60.62 million ounces, an increase of 360,000 ounces (11.2 tons) from February's 60.26 million ounces.

I don't make too many interpretations here. I have already analyzed a lot of the logic of the Chinese central bank's holding of gold. Interested students can go back and look at it. Here I need to give two different observation angles.

Just before December of last year, the People’s Bank of China had not increased its holdings of gold for more than two years. Why has it suddenly increased its holdings for four consecutive months since December last year?

On December 1, last year, the leaders of China and the United States reached an agreement in Argentina to agree to suspend mutual new tariffs for 90 days (until March 1, 2019), allowing the two sides to resolve trade disputes through negotiations during this period.

Later, the US negotiator, Wright Heze, told reporters, "This is a hard deadline." Wright Heze’s attitude is also tough. He said that if China wants to avoid higher tariffs, it will have to make concessions in various fields in the next few weeks. .

In fact, from this period, starting from December 1, China has begun to prepare for the breakdown of negotiations with the United States, that is, to make the worst plans.

What is the worst plan? Of course, it is the United States' restrictions and sanctions in the financial market and trade.

From a global perspective, in the face of US sanctions, in fact, we will choose a more similar strategy, which is to try our best to reduce the dependence on the US dollar settlement. Therefore, China began to increase its holdings of gold in December last year. It also abandoned its illusion and increased the international hard currency of non-US dollar nature from a longer-term perspective.

In addition, one can pay attention to the information that China’s four consecutive months of increasing its holdings of gold is also the four months from the devaluation of the renminbi to a continuous appreciation, and it is the most thrilling four months of Sino-US trade negotiations. I believe this is no coincidence.

The changes that have taken place in the world go far beyond this.

Last Tuesday, after nearly a year of bitcoin, a mysterious buyer suddenly appeared. Among the three exchanges of Coinbase, Kraken and Bitstamp, an algorithm-managed order bought a total of 20,000 bitcoins. Each exchange has a similar purchase of 7,000 bitcoins in the same hour, and the value adds up to $100 million. The bitcoin price broke through the $4,000 and $5,000 mark, and soared 23% ($1,000 or more) in one minute, the highest level since November last year.

What exactly is Bitcoin? In fact, many people may not understand it. On the 15th of last month, the Japanese cabinet meeting passed the amendments to the Financial Commodity Exchange Act and the Capital Closing Algorithm to rename the virtual currency to encrypted assets. I personally think that this is the ultimate definition of digital currency at the national level for a long time in the future. Encrypted assets based on blockchain technology are likely to become a new wealth bearing model in the future.

The degree of Internetization of Japan's traditional financial markets is not high. In fact, this is a very interesting philosophical issue. In China, because the efficiency of traditional finance is relatively low, in the service areas such as banks, especially the insufficiency of terminal payments such as credit cards, it has given the Internet a huge opportunity to pay, and has become the fastest growing mobile payment market in the world.

At present, it may be another reincarnation. In China, mobile payment is very convenient, so it does not care about the development of digital currency. But this may be the biggest crisis facing China.

Last Wednesday, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved a company that issued "digital currency" to raise money by selling a custom cryptocurrency. This is the first "no objection" letter issued by the SEC for blockchain financing. Although this "no objection" letter is not binding on the SEC, it is enough to show that the value of cryptocurrency in the US market has been recognized by the SEC.

The reason why the company can get a "no objection" letter is simple. The company's cryptocurrency is only used to help users book private jets. However, the restrictions on banking hours have brought a problem to the charter industry. Rich people may need wire transfers at any time, but they are subject to bank hours. If you don't pay, the plane won't take off. Traditional financial channels can take too long. This problem can be solved if you have a 24-hour run and do not need any financial intermediary cryptocurrency.

It is the limitations of the traditional banking industry that prompted the company to seek another option through the SEC.

You can think about it, if this thing is in China, may it be passed? It should not, because regulators will think that this is not a problem at all. Alipay and WeChat payment can solve this problem. If cryptocurrency is issued for this reason, it will definitely be defined as illegal fund-raising in China. But in the United States, the SEC has agreed to the market because of the limitations of the traditional banking industry.

Although this is a very small thing, we can boldly imagine that after 10 or 20 years, China may still be proud of Alipay and WeChat payment, and lament that it has a very advanced mobile payment level. However, the United States, Japan, etc. may all enter the self-running era of cryptocurrency, and commercial efficiency may be reincarnation.

Therefore, beyond the traditional bank counter payment, it is not the next bank counter payment with more advantages and service level, but mobile payment, beyond mobile payment, may not be the next generation mobile payment, it is likely to be cryptocurrency.

Why money is still the focus of the big country game, and another thing that is happening is also to explain the significance of money for national strategy.

In February of this year, the US House of Representatives Committee approved a bill that would enable the OPEC to launch antitrust lawsuits. The Judicial Committee of the House of Representatives passed the cross-two-party bill called "Anti-Oil Production and Export Cartel Act" (NOPEC) by verbal vote. The legislation will change the US antitrust law and overturn the sovereign immunity that has long protected OPEC members from US litigation. The US Attorney General will be able to sue the oil-producing organization or any of its member states on the grounds of conspiracy.

If this proposal is passed, Saudi Arabia and others may face further control of the crude oil market and may be subject to US sanctions at any time.

On Friday, as the proposal gradually gained support, Saudi Arabia expressed its position to the US Department of Energy officials: If Congress passes the Anti-Oil Production and Export Cartel Act (NOPEC), it will consider using the "nuclear option". Saudi Arabia will Give up using the dollar.

This is also a news that will not be valued by the market, but from a long time of observation, I have come to the conclusion that the country of Saudi Arabia cannot be underestimated. For a long time, Saudi Arabia has won the firm support of the United States, and I can always find the key points in various games with the United States.

In October last year, the Washington Post feed reporter Kashuji was dismembered by Saudi special agents. This inhuman behavior caused great repercussions in the United States. After confirming that Kaschi’s death was indeed related to the Saudi high-level, the American people put pressure on the White House. , demanding sanctions against Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia is ready to sign a $110 billion military purchase contract and talk to Trump. If Saudi Arabia is sanctioned, Saudi Arabia will cancel the contract.

On the one hand, there was a strong demand for sanctions against Saudi Arabia’s internal pressure, and on the other hand, a large number of banknotes from Saudi Arabia, Trump finally made a choice. Trump said that if the military business is broken and the arms business is broken, then this is not sanctioning Saudi Arabia. That is the United States is punishing itself.

As a result, everyone has seen that the United States, as a defender of universal values ​​and human rights, has not even gone to a clearer investigation of the cause of death of Kashoji, let alone sanction Saudi Arabia.

This time, Saudi Arabia threatened to abandon the US dollar settlement. It seems that it is not strange, but on the one hand, it shows that under the accumulation of time, the world pattern is changing, and the simple mode of exchange of interests will eventually lead to a deeper and deeper conflict. On the other hand, the US dollar trade system maintained at a strong cost has not yet gained the final recognition of more sovereign countries, and people are full of expectations for more equal financial rules.

Gold, bitcoin, and the dollar represent not a form of existence, but an endless pursuit of humanity for all kinds of eternal and changing. Understand these, the understanding of wealth and the situation, and the understanding of the cycle. Go deeper. We often use the most complex self-designed framework to explain a lot of changing things, seemingly infinite, but actually ignore the simplest underlying operating principles.

(Text / Xiao Lei)