Bitcoin skyrocketed by 200% in 90 days, why do people who care about it become less and less

"Wife, give me another 10,000 yuan, I beg you!"

"How do you make me believe in you? Is this bitcoin going to $10,000?"

One night at the end of May, Zhang Chaoyu prayed in front of the bed of the rental house to pray for his wife Yu Qi to give some money to add a bitcoin futures deposit. Prior to this, Zhang Chao had lost more than 200,000 wedding room down payment, because of the bitcoin, the relationship between him and his fiancée has reached the edge of the breakdown.

Yu Qi may not kill, Bitcoin can really rise to 10,000 US dollars in half a month, but do you dare to give money to a gambler?

Although the price of the currency has fluctuated recently, we do not think that the bull market is really coming. The rising and falling lines seem to be the IQ screening machine, and the people who are dreaming of getting rich overnight are being eliminated.

Soaring for no reason

In December 2017, Bitcoin, the leader in digital cryptocurrency, opened up a surge mode. In just one month, hot money rushed into the market and pushed up bitcoin prices. Bitcoin prices soared from $10,000. To $19,000, with a total market capitalization of $330 billion, it has become a star project that is admired in almost all economic fields. It seems that bitcoin is not behind the times at that time.

However, when its currency price began to fall, Bitcoin changed from a "money making machine" to a "Ponzi scheme."

In June 2018, Bitcoin once again appeared in the public's sight in a special way: in more than a month, the price of Bitcoin plummeted 40% from the price of $10,000 to $5,900. The entire digital currency cryptocurrency market has turned from a prosperous one to a billion dollars.

01

At that time, almost all traditional media put a label on the "scam" on Bitcoin. Some traditional financial media believed that the bitcoin bubble would soon burst and the market sentiment once reached freezing point. The actual situation has also been said by the media, bitcoin prices have fallen all the way, falling from nearly 20,000 US dollars to 3,200 US dollars in one year.

However, due to changes in the economic environment and the participation of institutional investors, this kind of "digital gold" bitcoin, its price has turned red since the beginning of this year. The story of the riches of Bitcoin has started again. Starting in April 2019, bitcoin prices have changed from toy bumper cars to Chinese high-speed rails, and they have entered the fast lane, and prices have soared from $4,000 to $14,000. In April, May and June alone, Bitcoin rose more than 230%.

Faced with the prospect of future trends and the possibility of getting rich, many investors who have been wronged for a year in the bear market in 2018 and investors who have experienced this roller coaster investment return for the first time are eager to try: Some people start buying Some people began to complain; some people are happy, the sea is full of joy, and some people are crying and shouting, and their wives are scattered.

Since March, Zhang Chao has seen the opportunity for Bitcoin to rise. If he took out the first payment of 250,000 yuan for buying a house and bought 10 bitcoins in March, his current digital asset value will reach 840,000 yuan. The benchmark interest rate of the central bank's demand deposits, which far exceeds 1.5%, far exceeds the annualized interest rate of 2.5% of Ant Financial's balance, far exceeding the annualized rate of 4-7% of bank wealth management products, far exceeding the P2P 10-15% year. The yield is far higher than the 20-40% yield of usury.

02

As for why bitcoin has risen, some people say that because the institution has bought a lot of bitcoin, some people say that the bitcoin fund has to be passed. Some people say that the market is enthusiastic. But these reasons are untenable and there is no market that can explain this chaos.

This time, the skyrocketing is somewhat different.

In late June, most people watched their digital asset prices rise and thought that a new round of bull markets had begun. In the 90 days, I went to Weibo Hot Search 4 times in a row and 2 times into Baidu Hot Search.

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Is the last hot search every week really hot? According to the WeChat index, the WeChat index of Bitcoin even exceeded the popularity of #大男当街暴打女# and #桂孤儿院猥亵#. However, in fact, the big rise and fall of Bitcoin did not cause too much movement in the currency circle. Both the media and analysts could not find the direct cause of this ups and downs of Bitcoin. Insiders look at the rising price curve, just think that "no more late to buy", "fear of missing this round of bull market", everyone has entered a very crazy chasing state.

04

Comparing Google Trends search data, we can see that compared with the January 2018 surge and slump, the April-June increase in this year is quite different in the search data: during the last time, Bitcoin climbed to 20,000 for the first time. The US dollar triggered the first concern of the whole society for the digital cryptocurrency of Bitcoin, which scored 100 points in the data graph, and this year the highest value of this data is only 20, that is, the heat is compared to the peak of 2018. Only 20%, the bull market did not return.

This may be related to the negative impact of the collapse of bitcoin prices in the past year. Before Bitcoin has yet to enter the public eye, the public may label the new things like Bitcoin as "high," "advanced," "not understandable," but when Bitcoin "has gone wrong," the public The resentment of the concept of "blockchain" has gradually increased, and labels such as "fraud" and "Ponzi scheme" have also shrouded Bitcoin.

The starting point of this negative resentment came from the plunge in January 2018, but the main reason was closely related to some miscalculations in the blockchain industry and long-term “cutting amaranth behavior”. Since the digital cryptocurrency industry has had ICO and can speculate, it has completely changed its taste.

The project party trades through ICO, trades on the exchange, and “harvests” ordinary investors through some despicable means. Many ordinary investors who believe in “the day to earn money” and “double in ten days” in the media are therefore bloodless. Going back, there have been some dangerous moves by investors trying to jump off the building because of investment failure or being cheated. At the same time, MLM groups have begun to see that digital currency can help them pull down the line more quickly and get back the proceeds. Even many people have equated "disguised coins" with "MLM".

Good things don't go out, bad things pass thousands of miles. Faced with advanced features such as decentralization and privacy encryption, people are more willing to believe that Bitcoin is essentially "bad." Bitcoin and the digital cryptocurrency it represents are fascinating in word-of-mouth because of the unmanned and unregulated games that become "inside the circle" .

Someone quietly riches

Some people look for information on the computer every day, trying to find the time to buy or sell, some people do nothing, can make a big profit. On Weibo, the block rhythm BlockBeats contacted a student who was still in the second year of high school. He told us a story about a Buddhist coin, which was called a "model" by many people who lost money.

In January of 2019, the sophomore student took out his own 20,000 pocket money and entrusted a group of friends to help him buy some platform coins. Soon, the currency platform currency rose to a price of 16 dollars in 2 months, and he exchanged the currency for bitcoin.

But soon he forgot about his own bitcoin because his studies were too busy. At the end of the semester's semester, he came back and glanced at the bitcoin he held. The total value has risen from the initial 20,000 yuan to 90,000 yuan, a floating profit of 450%. Let the friends in the group and the people who help him envy them. Someone asked him, what if your money is lost? He said: "It’s all bad when it comes to buying mobile phones and games." This kind of mentality is rare in the currency circle, but it is a state of mind that is in the middle of the currency, but it is harvested in this slump and skyrocketing. Those amaranths only know that speculation makes money, and I don’t know if I’m good.

The true bitcoin beliefs know that the risk of buying stocks is actually not big. It is difficult to meet the daily increase and the decline of more than 10%, so buy mainstream currency, buy current currency, compare in this industry. An approach to insurance. But in the currency circle, there is a more risky investment method: leveraged futures.

Some people jumped from building to commit suicide

On the evening of June 10, 2019, the founder of Biti, Hui Yi, died on June 5, 2019. A few days later, the news broke out. Just a few days before Hui's death, he suspected that he would use the customer's 2000 BTC (bitcoin) and use 100 times the leverage to make a short position.

The founder of Bite, Hui Wei, is a successful continuous entrepreneur and investor. Hui has twice established a P2P company and escaped from the P2P explosion. It also earned hundreds of millions of profits. It also escaped from the stock market when the A shares reached 5,000 points, and it has the title of "Hui Shen". Hui Yijin has done business in the blockchain industry and has done asset management services for many high net worth investors.

Huiyi, who has quite a fascinating resume, is also engaged in the risk control of digital currency investment. It is reasonable to have good trading literacy and strict control of trading risks, but he is ultimately suspected of using customer assets and high-powered gambling. The warehouse, the last loss of suicide, in addition to the recent involvement in the case of more than 3 billion yuan, the P2P platform "Net Libao" is closely related; shareholders and employees for investment losses are not mentioned, clear responsibility.

A continuous entrepreneur with a fresh background and successful resumes ended up suicide on the road of leveraging the speculative coins, leaving behind a group of rights-defending customers. This kind of tragedy does not know whether you can wake up those who still hold the lucky coin.

The Block Rhythm BlockBeats published a series of "Leek Flowers" column last year, which has many cases of failure of speculation, of which 90% of the speculative failures are related to futures operations. There have even been stories of people who have lost their hearts and minds stealing money from their homes and making futures contracts, but in the end they are losing their money and committing suicide.

Believers' paradise, the grave of the speculator

Zhang Chao said to us at the WeChat backstage: "If I can come back, I can never touch Bitcoin and make money without touching it." Maybe he can do it, but it is difficult for us to determine if he can withstand it. This kind of temptation to open the futures leverage several times, dozens of times of earnings, but it is certain that he can not sleep peacefully after the explosion, and as a gambler, he does not admit defeat.

The infinite pursuit of profit has aroused people's inner devils, making money, making more money, making more money faster, and letting many people lose their capital appreciation under the slogan of "blockchain revolution". The most basic cognition. On the contrary, many people who don’t want to make big money at all have a lot of benefits after being bullish in the bull market.

The digital cryptocurrency market has its own set of operating rules. In the face of speculators, it will actively open the clean-up mode, allowing anyone who tries to harvest high returns in the short term to suffer. How many people are holding the blockchain belief, we don't know, but we know that there are many people who hold the fantasy of riches to speculate on coins.

This may explain why the social discussion is not enthusiastic after the rapid rise of Bitcoin: the current market is unreasonable and irrational, which probably explains why there are not many people who care about Bitcoin after this surge. This is a paradise for rational investors and a cemetery for greedy speculators.